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You may not realize it but Israel is slowly becoming Rhodesia/Apartheid South Africa. And i don't mean the word 'apartheid' as a cudgel. During the Rhodesian B

You may not realize it but Israel is slowly becoming Rhodesia/Apartheid South Africa. And i don't mean the word 'apartheid' as a cudgel. During the Rhodesian Bush War, their forces ran circles around the ZIPRA and ZANLA with multiple battles and encounters where they'd routinely record 500:1 KD ratios like Operation Dingo, etc. They had complete freedom of action to bomb any infrastructure obstructing them, reach deep into neighboring countries and slaughter guerillas copiously. Hell, South Africa had a dozen nukes. Once the sanctions came on, it unraveled everything they had. Israel is in such a precarious situation right now. Their economy depends on technology exports to an extreme degree. Cutting off that source of FX would literally half the economy overnight because cash would stop sloshing around internally from its main sources. If that happens, all the smart kids propping up the economy will move out while you're left with extremists who want war but won't fight in the army. In fact, it's ongoing right now with people leaving the country in the midst of a war they're 'winning.' You might think sanctions are a far-off notion, but key Western powers are breaking with America on recognizing Palestine. That's a red line designed to signal to Israel that it's losing ground. People across the world are calling for sanctions and it won't be long before they materialize. And America? Israel's main power base are American boomer evangelicals who're going the way of the dinosaur. Like I said in another comment, their kids are either not religious, don't like bombing kids, have been radicalized by the atrocities they've witnessed, or are aligned with people like Fuentes. I hope they can smell the coffee; if anyone had told South Africa that a nuclear power could be disarmed without a gunshot, they'd never have believed it. But, look what eventually happened. Thanks to the ongoing genocide, America's voting demographic for the next 40 years has begun to see Israel as a genocidal terrorist state. They will be voting for the next 50 years, while the boomer evangelicals die off.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> Cutting off that source of FX would literally half the economy overnight because cash would stop sloshing around internally from its main sources My point is this isn't a realistic threat for Israel. Its exports are highly desirable to too many parties. Technology. Weapons. Energy. There is too much money to be made, too much advantage to be had. Yes, if the war in Gaza continues for another decade, Israel will run out of goodwill. But if it wraps up within a year or two? I don't see anything happening quickly enough that they can't adapt. Apartheid was a permanent state. The war need not be. > America's voting demographic for the next 40 years has begun to see Israel as a genocidal terrorist state. They will be voting for the next 50 years I'd say a strategic prerogative for Israel at this point is to diversify away from America. It's unfortunate. But they screwed a golden goose. For the aforementioned reasons, however, that isn't existential. Particularly given India and China have what they consider to be problematic Muslim populations within and around themselves, too.
- churchill 1y ago
  >My point is this isn't a realistic threat for Israel. Its exports are highly desirable to too many parties. Technology. Weapons. Energy. Everything Israel makes is fungible. The middle east is a river of gas. Israel's defense technology industry can't exist without Western partners. Hell, America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce. >Yes, if the war in Gaza continues for another half decade, Israel will run out of goodwill. But if it wraps up within a year or two? I don't see anything happening quickly enough that they can't adapt. Apartheid was a permanent state. The war need not be. The damage has been done. Hundreds of millions globally now voice opinions about Israel openly that they wouldn't have allowed to just a few years back. These people vote in their countries, buy products, interact in the real world. We're seeing Israeli tourists get harassed openly. Would have been unthinkable in, say, 2020. >Yeah, I'd say a strategic prerogative for Israel at this point is to diversify away from America. For the aforementioned reasons, however, I don't see that being a problem. Particularly given India and China have what they consider to be problematic Muslim populations within and around themselves, too. India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan. In fact, after China delivers Pakistan's J35s, India would have nothing to counter it. Israel's military core is air supremacy so much so that it is state doctrine to use nukes if the IAF is ever destroyed. And China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution. Unlike Western politicians, they can't be lobbied and bribed to support endless wars. I have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked. There's a reason even China keeps its dealings with sanctioned Russian companies plausibly deniable. To avoid contagion. You just don't understand how dependent Israel is on the West. 53% of their exports are technology goods. If you're cut off from Western markets, not only will China not buy much from Israel, they will copy their products and compete with them. The only country you can build a shared resistance towards Muslims is India. For now, their economy is small and irrelevant. China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel (LMAO).
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > Everything Israel makes is fungible Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. And something being fungible doesn't make it less valuable. > America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here. > India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan ...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems? > China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.) > have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade. And being a democracy, there is a lot of good a change of face can do. > 53% of their exports are technology goods Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe? > China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran. If the war dies down, they've got more important things to worry about. (Their populations have never liked Israel. Not super relevant.) It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents. The Gazans will all shrivel up and die. Israel will poof away because young Americans decide foreign policy--not jobs or housing or the rule of law--is their single issue. These extreme outcomes are incredibly unlikely.
pyuser583 1y ago
I’m one of the folks whose opinion of Israel has shifted. I don’t see them as a “genocidal terrorist state.” I see them as “just another middle eastern country.” While it’s bad what’s happening, it’s still nowhere near Syrian or Yemeni levels, although that may change. The best analogy I can think of is the Allied conduct in Germany at the end of WWII. WWII was a just and defensive war. But the bombing of Dresden and atrocities by the Soviet Army were unnecessary and dishonorable. Israel is now engaged in unnecessary and dishonorable conduct. They’ve been demoted from impressive to embarrassing. But they’re still a legitimate country, just like, say, Saudi Arabia.
- churchill 1y ago
  >I’m one of the folks whose opinion of Israel has shifted. I don’t see them as a “genocidal terrorist state.” I see them as “just another middle eastern country.” Okay. Opinions are on a spectrum. just like you, hundreds of millions of people who used to be pretty neutral on Israel now have strong opinions on the country. As a country, you generally want to blend in like Singapore/Switzerland and just not attract attention. Israel is attracting that attention, and for very bad reasons. Western voters are childlike and emotional. They hate seeing blood on screen, children crying, starving, dying, being squeezed in queues for food. For any reason at all. Israel might seem like just another middle eastern country to you, but when you aggregate across 8 billion people, the average vibe has shifted negatively. By a lot. >While it’s bad what’s happening, it’s still nowhere near Syrian or Yemeni levels Tell that to Western voters who will be voting for 50 years. No one cares. just make it stop. >But they’re still a legitimate country, just like, say, Saudi Arabia. You're being nuanced. Cool. But the average human is not. Good luck beaming that moderate position into everyone's minds.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > Western voters are childlike and emotional. They hate seeing blood on screen, children crying, starving, dying, being squeezed in queues for food There are like half a dozen wars of extermination currently occuring with lots of disturbing footage. Nobody really cares. Israel is close to home because it's an ally and we styled it as a Western-style democracy (versus something closer to the Middle Eastern democracy it is.) > Tell that to Western voters who will be voting for 50 years. No one cares. just make it stop There are precisely zero foreign policy issues that have survived this long on the back of vibes alone.
corimaith 1y ago
>America's voting demographic for the next 40 years has begun to see Israel as a genocidal terrorist state. They will be voting for the next 50 years, while the boomer evangelicals die off. The pro-palestine progressives are rapidly loosing political power, if not being targeted right now by the Trumpian administration. The National Conservatives may be isolationist regarding free funding, but they certainly aren't going to sanctioning Israel or ending arms sales, while Pro-Palestine is pretty much a useful proxy as is for them to signify "un-americans". Furthermore, the sanctions on South Africa occurred within the context of the Liberal International Era where one could afford to alienate a state in a region with little importance. But it's posters like you that have been calling for the so-called multipolar world, which is where NGOs and Human Rights will be sidelined in favour of a Westphalian-Type Sovereignity whereby hard interests decide foreign policy, not human rights concerns. In that Realist context, it is virtually within complete interests for the Gulf States and other actors to align with Israel over Iran, the former which has proven itself militairly and acts accordingly to economic interest, whereas the latter is bordering on a failed state still motivated by irrational hegemonic concerns. In the same context, a Palestinian states that takes over Israel basically will likely be detrimental to the other actors.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > a Westphalian-Type Sovereignity whereby hard interests decide foreign policy, not human rights concerns Westphalian sovereignty refers to "a principle in international law that each state has exclusive sovereignty over its territory" [1]. It doesn't support realpolitik nor negate human rights. The only degree to which it intersects with the latter is in arguing against foreign intervention. (Which realpolitik encourages.) It's a concept that was promulgated to integrate previously-independent city states into the larger nation-states and empires of the time. It's also quite idiotically named, given the actual Peace of Westphalia dealt with foreign powers deciding what to do with the Holy Roman Empire at the end of the Thirty Years' War, with France and Sweden being "recognised as guarantors of the imperial constitution with a right to intercede" [2], sort of the opposite of inviolable sovereignty. Today, it tends to be something Putin brings up, again, quite idiotically, given he's constantly fucking around in other countries' affairs. (You're broadly correct that in a Realist international framework the morality of Israel's actions are irrelevant. And that everyone advocating for a multipolar world shifts us in the Realist direction. Practically, however, these are models, not theories, and they coëxist with each other.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westphalian_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westphalian_system [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_of_Westphalia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_of_Westphalia

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> Cutting off that source of FX would literally half the economy overnight because cash would stop sloshing around internally from its main sources My point is this isn't a realistic threat for Israel. Its exports are highly desirable to too many parties. Technology. Weapons. Energy. There is too much money to be made, too much advantage to be had. Yes, if the war in Gaza continues for another decade, Israel will run out of goodwill. But if it wraps up within a year or two? I don't see anything happening quickly enough that they can't adapt. Apartheid was a permanent state. The war need not be. > America's voting demographic for the next 40 years has begun to see Israel as a genocidal terrorist state. They will be voting for the next 50 years I'd say a strategic prerogative for Israel at this point is to diversify away from America. It's unfortunate. But they screwed a golden goose. For the aforementioned reasons, however, that isn't existential. Particularly given India and China have what they consider to be problematic Muslim populations within and around themselves, too.

churchill 1y ago
>My point is this isn't a realistic threat for Israel. Its exports are highly desirable to too many parties. Technology. Weapons. Energy. Everything Israel makes is fungible. The middle east is a river of gas. Israel's defense technology industry can't exist without Western partners. Hell, America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce. >Yes, if the war in Gaza continues for another half decade, Israel will run out of goodwill. But if it wraps up within a year or two? I don't see anything happening quickly enough that they can't adapt. Apartheid was a permanent state. The war need not be. The damage has been done. Hundreds of millions globally now voice opinions about Israel openly that they wouldn't have allowed to just a few years back. These people vote in their countries, buy products, interact in the real world. We're seeing Israeli tourists get harassed openly. Would have been unthinkable in, say, 2020. >Yeah, I'd say a strategic prerogative for Israel at this point is to diversify away from America. For the aforementioned reasons, however, I don't see that being a problem. Particularly given India and China have what they consider to be problematic Muslim populations within and around themselves, too. India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan. In fact, after China delivers Pakistan's J35s, India would have nothing to counter it. Israel's military core is air supremacy so much so that it is state doctrine to use nukes if the IAF is ever destroyed. And China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution. Unlike Western politicians, they can't be lobbied and bribed to support endless wars. I have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked. There's a reason even China keeps its dealings with sanctioned Russian companies plausibly deniable. To avoid contagion. You just don't understand how dependent Israel is on the West. 53% of their exports are technology goods. If you're cut off from Western markets, not only will China not buy much from Israel, they will copy their products and compete with them. The only country you can build a shared resistance towards Muslims is India. For now, their economy is small and irrelevant. China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel (LMAO).
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > Everything Israel makes is fungible Israeli weapons are absolutely not fungible, particularly not for non-Western buyers. And something being fungible doesn't make it less valuable. > America denying them F35 repairs/upgrades effectively kills their airforce Correct. I am guessing we'll see diversification here. > India cannot even field 4.5 generation jets. Their airforce (French Rafales) got whooped in the recent confrontation with Pakistan ...and guess who makes a state-of-the-art integrated air defences? And knows how to penetrate (and thus harden) state-of-the-art Russian air defence systems? > China, trying to project an image of fairness to the third-world, as an alternative power, supports a two-state solution Uh, China is doing whatever it can to keep America distracted. If Israel can give China technology, China will continue calling for a two-state solution while buying what it needs. (Chinese-Israeli trade has increased throughout the war.) > have my gripes with the West but they're still a superpower bloc. If they sanction you, you're fucked Israel is not at material risk of blanket sanctions from the West in the next decade. And being a democracy, there is a lot of good a change of face can do. > 53% of their exports are technology goods Why does this have to go to America and Western Europe? > China has their Islamist problem under control and they won't want to offend the moneybag Arabs by supporting Israel Which of the Arab monarchies is particularly distressed with Israel? Which has even walked back its previous support and recognition? The Gulf is more than happy for Israel to fight their wars against Iran. If the war dies down, they've got more important things to worry about. (Their populations have never liked Israel. Not super relevant.) It seems that everyone in this conflict has doomsday fantasies for their opponents. The Gazans will all shrivel up and die. Israel will poof away because young Americans decide foreign policy--not jobs or housing or the rule of law--is their single issue. These extreme outcomes are incredibly unlikely.

pyuser583 1y ago

I’m one of the folks whose opinion of Israel has shifted. I don’t see them as a “genocidal terrorist state.” I see them as “just another middle eastern country.” While it’s bad what’s happening, it’s still nowhere near Syrian or Yemeni levels, although that may change. The best analogy I can think of is the Allied conduct in Germany at the end of WWII. WWII was a just and defensive war. But the bombing of Dresden and atrocities by the Soviet Army were unnecessary and dishonorable. Israel is now engaged in unnecessary and dishonorable conduct. They’ve been demoted from impressive to embarrassing. But they’re still a legitimate country, just like, say, Saudi Arabia.

churchill 1y ago
>I’m one of the folks whose opinion of Israel has shifted. I don’t see them as a “genocidal terrorist state.” I see them as “just another middle eastern country.” Okay. Opinions are on a spectrum. just like you, hundreds of millions of people who used to be pretty neutral on Israel now have strong opinions on the country. As a country, you generally want to blend in like Singapore/Switzerland and just not attract attention. Israel is attracting that attention, and for very bad reasons. Western voters are childlike and emotional. They hate seeing blood on screen, children crying, starving, dying, being squeezed in queues for food. For any reason at all. Israel might seem like just another middle eastern country to you, but when you aggregate across 8 billion people, the average vibe has shifted negatively. By a lot. >While it’s bad what’s happening, it’s still nowhere near Syrian or Yemeni levels Tell that to Western voters who will be voting for 50 years. No one cares. just make it stop. >But they’re still a legitimate country, just like, say, Saudi Arabia. You're being nuanced. Cool. But the average human is not. Good luck beaming that moderate position into everyone's minds.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > Western voters are childlike and emotional. They hate seeing blood on screen, children crying, starving, dying, being squeezed in queues for food There are like half a dozen wars of extermination currently occuring with lots of disturbing footage. Nobody really cares. Israel is close to home because it's an ally and we styled it as a Western-style democracy (versus something closer to the Middle Eastern democracy it is.) > Tell that to Western voters who will be voting for 50 years. No one cares. just make it stop There are precisely zero foreign policy issues that have survived this long on the back of vibes alone.

corimaith 1y ago

>America's voting demographic for the next 40 years has begun to see Israel as a genocidal terrorist state. They will be voting for the next 50 years, while the boomer evangelicals die off. The pro-palestine progressives are rapidly loosing political power, if not being targeted right now by the Trumpian administration. The National Conservatives may be isolationist regarding free funding, but they certainly aren't going to sanctioning Israel or ending arms sales, while Pro-Palestine is pretty much a useful proxy as is for them to signify "un-americans". Furthermore, the sanctions on South Africa occurred within the context of the Liberal International Era where one could afford to alienate a state in a region with little importance. But it's posters like you that have been calling for the so-called multipolar world, which is where NGOs and Human Rights will be sidelined in favour of a Westphalian-Type Sovereignity whereby hard interests decide foreign policy, not human rights concerns. In that Realist context, it is virtually within complete interests for the Gulf States and other actors to align with Israel over Iran, the former which has proven itself militairly and acts accordingly to economic interest, whereas the latter is bordering on a failed state still motivated by irrational hegemonic concerns. In the same context, a Palestinian states that takes over Israel basically will likely be detrimental to the other actors.

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> a Westphalian-Type Sovereignity whereby hard interests decide foreign policy, not human rights concerns Westphalian sovereignty refers to "a principle in international law that each state has exclusive sovereignty over its territory" [1]. It doesn't support realpolitik nor negate human rights. The only degree to which it intersects with the latter is in arguing against foreign intervention. (Which realpolitik encourages.) It's a concept that was promulgated to integrate previously-independent city states into the larger nation-states and empires of the time. It's also quite idiotically named, given the actual Peace of Westphalia dealt with foreign powers deciding what to do with the Holy Roman Empire at the end of the Thirty Years' War, with France and Sweden being "recognised as guarantors of the imperial constitution with a right to intercede" [2], sort of the opposite of inviolable sovereignty. Today, it tends to be something Putin brings up, again, quite idiotically, given he's constantly fucking around in other countries' affairs. (You're broadly correct that in a Realist international framework the morality of Israel's actions are irrelevant. And that everyone advocating for a multipolar world shifts us in the Realist direction. Practically, however, these are models, not theories, and they coëxist with each other.) [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westphalian_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westphalian_system [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_of_Westphalia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_of_Westphalia