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It's not that the investments just won't pay off, it's that the global markets are likely to crash like happened with the subprime mortgage crisis.

mothballed 1y ago
The fed could still push the real value of stocks quite a bit by destroying the USD, if they want, by pinning interest rates near 0 and forcing a rush to the exits to buy stock and other asset classes.
- mcny 1y ago
  The point still stands though. All these other companies can pivot to some thing else if AI fails but what will OpenAI do?
  - mandeepj 1y ago
    > but what will OpenAI do? Will get acquired at “Store Closing” price!!
  - rglover 1y ago
    Sell to Microsoft and be absorbed there (and Anthropic to Amazon).
  - rubyfan 1y ago
    By the time it catches up with them they will have IPO’d and dumped their problem onto the public market. The administration will probably get a golden share and they will get a bail out in an effort to soften the landing for their campaign donors that also have huge positions. All the rich people will be made whole and the US tax payer will pay the price of the bail out. And Microsoft or whoever will absorb the remains of their technology.
vitaflo 1y ago
This is much closer to the dotcom boom than the subprime stuff. The dotcom boom/bust affected tech more than anything else. It didn’t involve consumers like the housing crash did.
- digdugdirk 1y ago
  But it does involve a ton of commercial real estate investment, as well as a huge shakeup in the energy market. People may not lose their homes, but we'll all be paying for this one way or another.
- bobxmax 1y ago
  [flagged]
  - lelandbatey 1y ago
    They're not claiming that it's like the dot com boom because no one is actually making money. They're claiming that this is more like the dot com boom than the housing bubble, which I think is true. The dot com crash didn't cause Jane-on-the-street to lose her house while she worked a factory job, though the housing crisis did have those kinds of consumer-affecting outcomes.
    - bobxmax 1y ago
      It's nothing like the dot com bubble because that was based on speculative future value and zero present value. There is more present value in AI than at any point in software in the last 30 years.
      - sagarm 1y ago
        The Internet bubble was also based on something real, but that didn't stop it from being a bubble. For example, Cisco parked at over $500B in market cap during the boom. Its current market cap is around half that, at $250B.
  - jrflowers 1y ago

mothballed 1y ago

The fed could still push the real value of stocks quite a bit by destroying the USD, if they want, by pinning interest rates near 0 and forcing a rush to the exits to buy stock and other asset classes.

mcny 1y ago
The point still stands though. All these other companies can pivot to some thing else if AI fails but what will OpenAI do?
- mandeepj 1y ago
  > but what will OpenAI do? Will get acquired at “Store Closing” price!!
- rglover 1y ago
  Sell to Microsoft and be absorbed there (and Anthropic to Amazon).
- rubyfan 1y ago
  By the time it catches up with them they will have IPO’d and dumped their problem onto the public market. The administration will probably get a golden share and they will get a bail out in an effort to soften the landing for their campaign donors that also have huge positions. All the rich people will be made whole and the US tax payer will pay the price of the bail out. And Microsoft or whoever will absorb the remains of their technology.

vitaflo 1y ago

This is much closer to the dotcom boom than the subprime stuff. The dotcom boom/bust affected tech more than anything else. It didn’t involve consumers like the housing crash did.

digdugdirk 1y ago
But it does involve a ton of commercial real estate investment, as well as a huge shakeup in the energy market. People may not lose their homes, but we'll all be paying for this one way or another.
bobxmax 1y ago
[flagged]
- lelandbatey 1y ago
  They're not claiming that it's like the dot com boom because no one is actually making money. They're claiming that this is more like the dot com boom than the housing bubble, which I think is true. The dot com crash didn't cause Jane-on-the-street to lose her house while she worked a factory job, though the housing crisis did have those kinds of consumer-affecting outcomes.
  - bobxmax 1y ago
    It's nothing like the dot com bubble because that was based on speculative future value and zero present value. There is more present value in AI than at any point in software in the last 30 years.
    - sagarm 1y ago
      The Internet bubble was also based on something real, but that didn't stop it from being a bubble. For example, Cisco parked at over $500B in market cap during the boom. Its current market cap is around half that, at $250B.
- jrflowers 1y ago