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Watch as quantum hype gradually replace AI hype. Like AI not all of it will be hype but there will be 80:20 ratio of hype to benefit. And the greatest benefit w

Watch as quantum hype gradually replace AI hype. Like AI not all of it will be hype but there will be 80:20 ratio of hype to benefit. And the greatest benefit will be to those who trade on hype. Stating the obvious.

parsimo2010 1y ago
Quantum hype will not replace AI hype. Quantum has already had its time of overblown expectations and has cooled off to realistic expectations. It won’t be cool or hyped again until general purpose quantum computing becomes a reality.
- SeanAnderson 1y ago
  Rigetti Computing is up 315% in the last six months. So, I'm not as confident in this analysis as you. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RGTI/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RGTI/
  - parsimo2010 1y ago
    Rigetti, a company with $11B market cap is playing in a smaller league. OpenAI will have that much in revenue this year, and has a market cap almost 50x higher. The hype is not the same.
    - SeanAnderson 1y ago
      Yeah, that's fair. I agree RGTI (and QUBT, +100% last 6mo) both have much smaller mcaps, but they also kind of seem like (maybe?) more reflective of quantum hype than companies which have a quantum department but aren't defined by their quantum capabilities right now.
    - chews 1y ago
      OpenAI's first half saw them with 4B in profit and 13B in loss.
- Yoric 1y ago
  The quantum industry now knows (more or less) its own limitations for the next 5-10 years. That knowledge may not extend to investors, especially if they're looking for a new speculative bubble rather than the actual outcome of quantum R&D.
- lomase 1y ago
  AI has already had its time of overblown expectations and has cooled off to realistic expectations. I am talking about the 70s.
  - parsimo2010 1y ago
    I’m not saying that AI is definitely here to stay this time, but it won’t be quantum replacing it. AI has cooled in the past, even generating the term “AI winter,” but it’s hot now. Quantum could be big again, but this current wave of specialized computers is played out. There won’t be hype at the level that AI currently gets until there is general purpose quantum computing.
- MontyCarloHall 1y ago
  >It won’t be cool or hyped again until general purpose quantum computing becomes a reality. Which, to be clear, could be never. Aside from factoring numbers, solving certain optimization problems, and simulating quantum systems, there are very few known applications where quantum computers even theoretically outperform classical computers. Of course, it's possible that as quantum computers become more powerful/robust, it will inspire discovery of new classes of problems/algorithms that they excel at. But I'm not holding my breath.
Analemma_ 1y ago
Huh, I've actually been pleasantly surprised at how much hype there isn't every time one of these companies with a quantum side gig (Google, Microsoft) announces some new paper or finding. They're usually accompanied by levelheaded press releases announcing what was done and why, not breathless hyperbole. There are generic optimistic statements from executives, but nothing like what happens with AI. I dunno, it feels to me like they're pretty realistic about what QC might and might not accomplish in the coming decade. For QC startups it's a different story, but of course startups have to hype themselves into the stratosphere to survive, so I don't really hold it against them (or at least, not any more than I would any other startup).
- pclmulqdq 1y ago
  The 1970s, 1990s, and 2010s had huge waves of QC hype that amounted to nothing. The public is simply tired of it.
  - throwaway_7274 1y ago
    The 70s? Manin and Feynman proposed the idea in 1980.
    - pclmulqdq 1y ago
      Sorry, the 80's
asdfman123 1y ago
I'm hereby claiming invention of the phrase "quantum larp," which may come in handy later (applying the MIT open source license for fair use).
vjvjvjvjghv 1y ago
I doubt quantum hype will go very far. I sometimes talk to a guy who works in quantum computing. He claims that even if quantum computing becomes feasible, it will be mainly for very specialized applications. The wider public probably won’t be very excited about encryption or fluid dynamic simulation. That’s very different from AI that will be applicable to very general and broad areas
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> watch as quantum hype gradually replace AI hype We already have quantum transformers [1], so the PR points are there for the taking. [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.04305 https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.04305

parsimo2010 1y ago

Quantum hype will not replace AI hype. Quantum has already had its time of overblown expectations and has cooled off to realistic expectations. It won’t be cool or hyped again until general purpose quantum computing becomes a reality.

SeanAnderson 1y ago
Rigetti Computing is up 315% in the last six months. So, I'm not as confident in this analysis as you. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RGTI/ https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RGTI/
- parsimo2010 1y ago
  Rigetti, a company with $11B market cap is playing in a smaller league. OpenAI will have that much in revenue this year, and has a market cap almost 50x higher. The hype is not the same.
  - SeanAnderson 1y ago
    Yeah, that's fair. I agree RGTI (and QUBT, +100% last 6mo) both have much smaller mcaps, but they also kind of seem like (maybe?) more reflective of quantum hype than companies which have a quantum department but aren't defined by their quantum capabilities right now.
  - chews 1y ago
    OpenAI's first half saw them with 4B in profit and 13B in loss.
Yoric 1y ago
The quantum industry now knows (more or less) its own limitations for the next 5-10 years. That knowledge may not extend to investors, especially if they're looking for a new speculative bubble rather than the actual outcome of quantum R&D.
lomase 1y ago
AI has already had its time of overblown expectations and has cooled off to realistic expectations. I am talking about the 70s.
- parsimo2010 1y ago
  I’m not saying that AI is definitely here to stay this time, but it won’t be quantum replacing it. AI has cooled in the past, even generating the term “AI winter,” but it’s hot now. Quantum could be big again, but this current wave of specialized computers is played out. There won’t be hype at the level that AI currently gets until there is general purpose quantum computing.
MontyCarloHall 1y ago
>It won’t be cool or hyped again until general purpose quantum computing becomes a reality. Which, to be clear, could be never. Aside from factoring numbers, solving certain optimization problems, and simulating quantum systems, there are very few known applications where quantum computers even theoretically outperform classical computers. Of course, it's possible that as quantum computers become more powerful/robust, it will inspire discovery of new classes of problems/algorithms that they excel at. But I'm not holding my breath.

Analemma_ 1y ago

Huh, I've actually been pleasantly surprised at how much hype there isn't every time one of these companies with a quantum side gig (Google, Microsoft) announces some new paper or finding. They're usually accompanied by levelheaded press releases announcing what was done and why, not breathless hyperbole. There are generic optimistic statements from executives, but nothing like what happens with AI. I dunno, it feels to me like they're pretty realistic about what QC might and might not accomplish in the coming decade. For QC startups it's a different story, but of course startups have to hype themselves into the stratosphere to survive, so I don't really hold it against them (or at least, not any more than I would any other startup).

pclmulqdq 1y ago
The 1970s, 1990s, and 2010s had huge waves of QC hype that amounted to nothing. The public is simply tired of it.
- throwaway_7274 1y ago
  The 70s? Manin and Feynman proposed the idea in 1980.
  - pclmulqdq 1y ago
    Sorry, the 80's

asdfman123 1y ago

I'm hereby claiming invention of the phrase "quantum larp," which may come in handy later (applying the MIT open source license for fair use).

vjvjvjvjghv 1y ago

I doubt quantum hype will go very far. I sometimes talk to a guy who works in quantum computing. He claims that even if quantum computing becomes feasible, it will be mainly for very specialized applications. The wider public probably won’t be very excited about encryption or fluid dynamic simulation. That’s very different from AI that will be applicable to very general and broad areas

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> watch as quantum hype gradually replace AI hype We already have quantum transformers [1], so the PR points are there for the taking. [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.04305 https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.04305