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> But what if someone reaches autonomous AGI with this push? What if Jesus turns up again? Seems a little optimistic, especially with several leading AI voices
by Quarrelsome 1y ago
> But what if someone reaches autonomous AGI with this push?
What if Jesus turns up again? Seems a little optimistic, especially with several leading AI voices suggesting that AGI is at least a lot further away than just parameter expansion.
- jacknews 1y agoIt seems rather more likely to me, even if it's millennia way, that we get a semblance of an autonomous agentic AI, than what you suggest. It might be impossible, or just need some innovations (eg, transformer), but my point is the investments are non-linear. They are not investing X to get a return of Y. If someone reaches AGI, current business models, ROI etc will be meaningless.
- Quarrelsome 1y ago> If someone reaches AGI, current business models, ROI etc will be meaningless. sure, but its still a moonshot, compared to our current tech. I think such hope leaves us vulnerable to cognitive biases such as sunk cost fallacies. If Jesus comes back that really would change everything, that's the clarion call of many cults that end in tragedy. I imagine there is fruit that is considerably lower hanging, that has more obvious ROI but is just considerably less sexy than AGI.
- tim333 1y agoProbably the most reliable person I can think of to estimate that would be Hassabis at Deepmind and he's saying like 5 years give or take a factor of two. (for AGI, not Jesus)
- Quarrelsome 1y agohead guy at Meta stated in a talk that current techniques ain't gonna be enough and they at least need to start to be more creative.
- tim333 1y agoYeah that seems the consensus. There are lots of people working on the stuff though.