3 ms·

> There is no moat in any profession outside of entrenched wealth or guns at the moment That's just not true at all. Plumbers and electricians and carpenters

> There is no moat in any profession outside of entrenched wealth or guns at the moment That's just not true at all. Plumbers and electricians and carpenters are not going anywhere. A residential plumber will not have their job automated this or next decade, at best they'll have some fancier tools to play with.

analog31 1y ago
Not quickly at least, but technology can gradually reduce the labor content of a plumbing job thanks to things like solderlerss fittings, plastic tubing etc. For carpenters, prefab assemblies made in automated factories, etc.
- margalabargala 1y ago
  Most tradework is not new construction. It is mostly assorted rennovations and returns on existing structures dating back over a century. A person knowing how some brick houses in Y neighborhood tended to be built back in 1890 won't be replicated by prefab anything.
phoenixhaber 1y ago
[dead]
- SomaticPirate 1y ago
  This reads like someone who is quite out of touch with the trades. A large number of states implement right to work laws that discourage union membership. I could go out and get a framer job today (and with the current immigration crackdown probably have one by the end of the day). Having worked as a framer before college, it will be incredibly long before these jobs have any level of automation (a thought which gives me comfort when I consider my own job prospects). However, I'm thankful everyday that I get to sit in an A/C office and type on a computer. Framing is hard work and ruthless. Most people won't last a day doing it because of how challenging it is.
  - someothherguyy 1y ago
    Who is going to buy the houses? Who is going to own the land? Not many people need a plumber. Look back some decades. We can't all just work in the trades. It doesn't make sense from a supply and demand stance. A decrease in quality of life is an acceptable cost to stay alive. In a very different economy, people will just fix their own toilet with scavenged or bartered parts.
    - yunwal 1y ago
      > Not many people need a plumber Do you… not have running water?
      - someothherguyy 1y ago
        My point was that humans can do most residential plumbing tasks easily, and the effort and cost involved in learning and acquiring tools might outweigh the desire to pay for a service in a future economy with scarce labor opportunities. Also, in such a bleak future, there might not be running water where you currently own property.
        YZF 1y ago
        But really you're answering your own question. The economy is not a zero sum game- It adapts. Why do our current jobs exist? Because somebody is paying for what we produce. Then we take our pay and buy what other people produce. There could be an equilibrium today (or 20 years ago) where nobody has any jobs but there are generally feedback loops that help get to a functioning economy. It's not impossible that unemployment will go up but it's not as simple as LLMs will take our jobs. There's always more jobs to do and there are always some other equilibrium points. And it's not even clear LLMs are taking our jobs, one might argue that they'll end up creating more jobs.
        someothherguyy 1y ago
        > There's always more jobs to do and there are always some other equilibrium points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hooverville https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hooverville https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Brazil#Stagnation,_inflation_and_crisis_(1981%E2%80%931993) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Brazil#Sta...
noosphr 1y ago
No one expected natural language to be solved in 2020. At the time the smart money was on 20 to 80 years. Many people are still acting like it's not. Things happen not at all and then all at once. We have the cheap humanoid platforms coming out of China and they cost six months minimum wage salary in the developed world. Once a model is developed that can use those platforms to match humans for simple tasks we will see the hollowing out of all unskilled physical labor overnight.
- datadrivenangel 1y ago
  NLP still isn't solved. LLMs are a big step change, but NLP still isn't solved.
  - noosphr 1y ago
    I can talk to a computer and it can talk back. The rest is commentary.
    - kibwen 1y ago
      ELIZA passed the Turing test in the 60s. That's not a statement of technological progress towards AI, that's a statement on 1) the uselessness of the Turing test, which has been known for decades and 2) the gullibility of the human psyche when it comes to assigning intelligence to anything that can mimic human communication patterns.
      - noosphr 1y ago
        It did not.
        kibwen 1y ago
        Even Turing didn't respect the "Turing test", and your willingness to ignore reality in order to defend such a useless metric on the path to AI marks you as one of the gullible ones.
femto 1y ago
... electricians ... are not going anywhere. I wouldn't be so sure about that. Power systems have a long way to go in terms of integration with data. One can envisage an inherently safe system whereby a data signal is superimposed on the wire (related to data-over-power) and every power source continually interrogates its loads and conditions on the wire are being continually monitored. Any unsafe situation will result in a shutdown of supply. I'm describing a system that goes well beyond existing breakers and earth leakage: one that is able to fully map the connections between components, know the topology of the system and compare actual and expected behaviour. The idea is that any dummy could do electrical wiring, as the system itself would make it impossible to create an unsafe situation. Cost would be higher to start with, but with economies of scale reducing the difference, my guess is that the higher cost of components could be offset by lower installation cost and the increased safety.
- margalabargala 1y ago
  Yeah, that's not going to be retrofitted into a double digit percentage of homes by 2040. Electricians are not going anywhere, this decade or next. I stand by what I said.
chis 1y ago
The biggest risk they face is perhaps competition from unskilled workers who can do trades by just wearing Meta AR glasses and following instructions from an AI. Of course you’d still need training on how to work with your hands but it would cut down on the need for years of experience and planning.
- lazide 1y ago
  There is literally zero chance of that actually working, and no one who thinks it could has ever set foot on a job site.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]

analog31 1y ago

Not quickly at least, but technology can gradually reduce the labor content of a plumbing job thanks to things like solderlerss fittings, plastic tubing etc. For carpenters, prefab assemblies made in automated factories, etc.

margalabargala 1y ago
Most tradework is not new construction. It is mostly assorted rennovations and returns on existing structures dating back over a century. A person knowing how some brick houses in Y neighborhood tended to be built back in 1890 won't be replicated by prefab anything.

phoenixhaber 1y ago

[dead]

SomaticPirate 1y ago
This reads like someone who is quite out of touch with the trades. A large number of states implement right to work laws that discourage union membership. I could go out and get a framer job today (and with the current immigration crackdown probably have one by the end of the day). Having worked as a framer before college, it will be incredibly long before these jobs have any level of automation (a thought which gives me comfort when I consider my own job prospects). However, I'm thankful everyday that I get to sit in an A/C office and type on a computer. Framing is hard work and ruthless. Most people won't last a day doing it because of how challenging it is.
- someothherguyy 1y ago
  Who is going to buy the houses? Who is going to own the land? Not many people need a plumber. Look back some decades. We can't all just work in the trades. It doesn't make sense from a supply and demand stance. A decrease in quality of life is an acceptable cost to stay alive. In a very different economy, people will just fix their own toilet with scavenged or bartered parts.
  - yunwal 1y ago
    > Not many people need a plumber Do you… not have running water?
    - someothherguyy 1y ago
      My point was that humans can do most residential plumbing tasks easily, and the effort and cost involved in learning and acquiring tools might outweigh the desire to pay for a service in a future economy with scarce labor opportunities. Also, in such a bleak future, there might not be running water where you currently own property.
      - YZF 1y ago
        But really you're answering your own question. The economy is not a zero sum game- It adapts. Why do our current jobs exist? Because somebody is paying for what we produce. Then we take our pay and buy what other people produce. There could be an equilibrium today (or 20 years ago) where nobody has any jobs but there are generally feedback loops that help get to a functioning economy. It's not impossible that unemployment will go up but it's not as simple as LLMs will take our jobs. There's always more jobs to do and there are always some other equilibrium points. And it's not even clear LLMs are taking our jobs, one might argue that they'll end up creating more jobs.
        someothherguyy 1y ago
        > There's always more jobs to do and there are always some other equilibrium points. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hooverville https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hooverville https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crisis_in_Venezuela https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Brazil#Stagnation,_inflation_and_crisis_(1981%E2%80%931993) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Brazil#Sta...

noosphr 1y ago

No one expected natural language to be solved in 2020. At the time the smart money was on 20 to 80 years. Many people are still acting like it's not. Things happen not at all and then all at once. We have the cheap humanoid platforms coming out of China and they cost six months minimum wage salary in the developed world. Once a model is developed that can use those platforms to match humans for simple tasks we will see the hollowing out of all unskilled physical labor overnight.

datadrivenangel 1y ago
NLP still isn't solved. LLMs are a big step change, but NLP still isn't solved.
- noosphr 1y ago
  I can talk to a computer and it can talk back. The rest is commentary.
  - kibwen 1y ago
    ELIZA passed the Turing test in the 60s. That's not a statement of technological progress towards AI, that's a statement on 1) the uselessness of the Turing test, which has been known for decades and 2) the gullibility of the human psyche when it comes to assigning intelligence to anything that can mimic human communication patterns.
    - noosphr 1y ago
      It did not.
      - kibwen 1y ago
        Even Turing didn't respect the "Turing test", and your willingness to ignore reality in order to defend such a useless metric on the path to AI marks you as one of the gullible ones.

femto 1y ago

... electricians ... are not going anywhere. I wouldn't be so sure about that. Power systems have a long way to go in terms of integration with data. One can envisage an inherently safe system whereby a data signal is superimposed on the wire (related to data-over-power) and every power source continually interrogates its loads and conditions on the wire are being continually monitored. Any unsafe situation will result in a shutdown of supply. I'm describing a system that goes well beyond existing breakers and earth leakage: one that is able to fully map the connections between components, know the topology of the system and compare actual and expected behaviour. The idea is that any dummy could do electrical wiring, as the system itself would make it impossible to create an unsafe situation. Cost would be higher to start with, but with economies of scale reducing the difference, my guess is that the higher cost of components could be offset by lower installation cost and the increased safety.

margalabargala 1y ago
Yeah, that's not going to be retrofitted into a double digit percentage of homes by 2040. Electricians are not going anywhere, this decade or next. I stand by what I said.

chis 1y ago

The biggest risk they face is perhaps competition from unskilled workers who can do trades by just wearing Meta AR glasses and following instructions from an AI. Of course you’d still need training on how to work with your hands but it would cut down on the need for years of experience and planning.

lazide 1y ago
There is literally zero chance of that actually working, and no one who thinks it could has ever set foot on a job site.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]