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The level of uncertainty in the job market says otherwise. This is the worst tech job market in my entire 40 year career.

sarchertech 1y ago
We’re coming off of nearly 20 years of growth, years of free money, and the COVID boom that caused massive over-hiring. Then you add the millions and millions tech companies spent promoting coding as a career, and the organic attraction from high salaries that caused CS to became the most popular major at many schools, and pushed droves up people into coding bootcamps. The free money stopped, and without that subsidy we probably have 50% more programmers than we really need.
- johnnyanmac 1y ago
  I'll keep saying it everytime: don't call it "overhiring". This was intentional and layoffs are a feature, not a consequence. Moreover, look at the hiring numbers in earnings calls. These companies did not slow down hiring. They slowed down hiring in North America. THey clearly didn't "overhire", they want to cheap out on wages and use AI as the scapegoat to impress shareholders.
  - simianwords 1y ago
    This is a naive explanation. Tech companies increased headcount by more than 2x since 2018. Was this intentional? Did they intentionally double the headcount? To what gain? Why would they deliberately give up their profits by doubling headcount just to layoff around 10% in aggregate? They still have to pay the rest 90%… so they just did that so that the 10% could be laid off?
    - johnnyanmac 1y ago
      > Was this intentional? Did they intentionally double the headcount? Yes >To what gain? - reporting explosive growth - launching a lot of initiatives, of which more than half of are probably shelved c. 2025. Seriously, peek into any company and see all the odd products they were announcing back then. - to gain more of a global foothold. If you want to operate in a new country, you'll need to hire a lot of staff to manage compliance, run offices, work with local companies, etc. - to have a lot of bodies to throw at a problem should they need it. Since hiring was basically "free" is was convinent to have talent on hold just in case. - to poach, be it from competitors or from potential future competition. There's been reports of skilled hires who'd proceed to be on standby for quite a while. But paid very well. That's not something you do normally. >Why would they deliberately give up their profits by doubling headcount just to layoff around 10% in aggregate? That's the oversimplification of S174. They weren't losing much revenue because those labor costs would be balanced out from the taxes they didn't have to pay. It just cancels out. Layoffs started quick once that ended. Remeber, they don't see layoffs as a "bad thing" as a business. The stock even bumps up a tiny bit back on 2022/2023 over layoff news. Something about "being responsible" or some drek. S174 will be back next year, but I think there's multiple other issues that mean the market won't quickly bounce back.
      - simianwords 1y ago
        So the companies reacted rationally to the tax laws? Seems like a much better way to put rather than “use AI as a scapegoat” which is not substantiated.
        johnnyanmac 1y ago
        There were a lot of things in 2022 happening all at once, so while S178 is a highly underreported issue in the tech sector,it wasn't the only catalyst. Fed rates increased, ad yields plummeted, and a cooling off of the COVID tech boom meant that companies quickly left "growth mode". The transition to maintenance mode also caused a new wave of outsourcing to cut the cost of "no longer free money" North American devs. That's why hiring actually isn't down as much in earning calls. They are still hiring, just not from here.
  - sarchertech 1y ago
    The last 2 companies I worked at since 2020 100% overtired. Both of than had way more developers than they knew what to do with. That’s a big part of where things like micro services come from. >Moreover, look at the hiring numbers in earnings calls. These companies did not slow down hiring. They slowed down hiring in North America. I don’t think this is true. IT jobs in India are down 10%. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/it-jobs-slowdown-sector-sees-10-dip-as-legacy-tech-openings-slump-to-3-year-low-ai-cybersecurity-hiring-bucks-the-trend/articleshow/123691264.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/...

sarchertech 1y ago

We’re coming off of nearly 20 years of growth, years of free money, and the COVID boom that caused massive over-hiring. Then you add the millions and millions tech companies spent promoting coding as a career, and the organic attraction from high salaries that caused CS to became the most popular major at many schools, and pushed droves up people into coding bootcamps. The free money stopped, and without that subsidy we probably have 50% more programmers than we really need.

johnnyanmac 1y ago
I'll keep saying it everytime: don't call it "overhiring". This was intentional and layoffs are a feature, not a consequence. Moreover, look at the hiring numbers in earnings calls. These companies did not slow down hiring. They slowed down hiring in North America. THey clearly didn't "overhire", they want to cheap out on wages and use AI as the scapegoat to impress shareholders.
- simianwords 1y ago
  This is a naive explanation. Tech companies increased headcount by more than 2x since 2018. Was this intentional? Did they intentionally double the headcount? To what gain? Why would they deliberately give up their profits by doubling headcount just to layoff around 10% in aggregate? They still have to pay the rest 90%… so they just did that so that the 10% could be laid off?
  - johnnyanmac 1y ago
    > Was this intentional? Did they intentionally double the headcount? Yes >To what gain? - reporting explosive growth - launching a lot of initiatives, of which more than half of are probably shelved c. 2025. Seriously, peek into any company and see all the odd products they were announcing back then. - to gain more of a global foothold. If you want to operate in a new country, you'll need to hire a lot of staff to manage compliance, run offices, work with local companies, etc. - to have a lot of bodies to throw at a problem should they need it. Since hiring was basically "free" is was convinent to have talent on hold just in case. - to poach, be it from competitors or from potential future competition. There's been reports of skilled hires who'd proceed to be on standby for quite a while. But paid very well. That's not something you do normally. >Why would they deliberately give up their profits by doubling headcount just to layoff around 10% in aggregate? That's the oversimplification of S174. They weren't losing much revenue because those labor costs would be balanced out from the taxes they didn't have to pay. It just cancels out. Layoffs started quick once that ended. Remeber, they don't see layoffs as a "bad thing" as a business. The stock even bumps up a tiny bit back on 2022/2023 over layoff news. Something about "being responsible" or some drek. S174 will be back next year, but I think there's multiple other issues that mean the market won't quickly bounce back.
    - simianwords 1y ago
      So the companies reacted rationally to the tax laws? Seems like a much better way to put rather than “use AI as a scapegoat” which is not substantiated.
      - johnnyanmac 1y ago
        There were a lot of things in 2022 happening all at once, so while S178 is a highly underreported issue in the tech sector,it wasn't the only catalyst. Fed rates increased, ad yields plummeted, and a cooling off of the COVID tech boom meant that companies quickly left "growth mode". The transition to maintenance mode also caused a new wave of outsourcing to cut the cost of "no longer free money" North American devs. That's why hiring actually isn't down as much in earning calls. They are still hiring, just not from here.
- sarchertech 1y ago
  The last 2 companies I worked at since 2020 100% overtired. Both of than had way more developers than they knew what to do with. That’s a big part of where things like micro services come from. >Moreover, look at the hiring numbers in earnings calls. These companies did not slow down hiring. They slowed down hiring in North America. I don’t think this is true. IT jobs in India are down 10%. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/it-jobs-slowdown-sector-sees-10-dip-as-legacy-tech-openings-slump-to-3-year-low-ai-cybersecurity-hiring-bucks-the-trend/articleshow/123691264.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/...