3 ms·

"But we absolutely have to do this." This = what precisely? If you mean getting rid of oil and gas on a short scale, there won't be majority for that. By 2040

• tpm 1y ago
  2055, if we manage to replace most of heating, transport and industrial use, the rest is manageable. But it's still lots of work for 30 years.
  • ben_w 1y ago
    I think >95% of global electricity will be renewables or nuclear by 2032[0], >85% road vehicles green by 2035[1]; for everything else, limits are *at a minimum* 50% of the MTBF for the equipment but may be even harder, e.g. hydrogen jet fuel is theoretically possible but there's no obvious path to it. [0] just extrapolate growth curves for PV and wind and you get 100% by then even without nuclear, but in practice last 5% of anything is hard [1] needs new electricity not yet on the various grids, but not as much as the thermal power of the fuel burned as EVs are more efficient; mainly limited by production of batteries, and that itself is accelerating