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Hard to tell. We could devaluate. That would help with both the debt situation and our exports. The UK is not doing that bad at all. That’s a risky bet but I p

Hard to tell. We could devaluate. That would help with both the debt situation and our exports. The UK is not doing that bad at all. That’s a risky bet but I personally prefer that to the current situation. I would honestly be ok with staying in the union if we could exit the euro while staying but I don’t think it’s possible.

lawlessone 1y ago
>Better ruined than a colony. Not sure what you're referring to here?
- StopDisinfo910 1y ago
  It’s me being dramatic for useless flair. I edited it out a minute after posting because it adds nothing to the discussion but you read it before I did.
munksbeer 1y ago
> Hard to tell. We could devaluate. That would help with both the debt situation and our exports. The UK is not doing that bad at all. 1. It is widely recognised, and irritates the poorer countries, that Germany and France benefit from the relatively weak Euro for their exports. 2. If you left the EU and obviously the Euro and devalued your currency, you end up with wild inflation. If there is anything a population hates, it is high inflation. Given your political situation in France currently, no government would last a year in that scenario. 3. Devaluing obviously causes bond rates to rocket, which means rolling over your current debt because extremely serious. 4. On top of that, mortgage rates rocket, people hate that too. There is a reason countries don't just print money and devalue all the time. If it was that easy, everyone would do it.
tpm 1y ago
> That would help with both the debt situation and our exports. But the debt is denominated in euro. If you leave euro and create a new currency, the bonds will still be in euro, while your new currency will be worth much less. It's basically easier and less painful to default on the spot than to go through this. I honestly can't understand the urge to get bankrupt. France is already famous for the revolution and eagerness to protest but this looks like you want to cause chaos just for the sake of it.
- StopDisinfo910 1y ago
  Entirely depends how on we leave. We could convert the debt when we exit. That's unlikely to please our debtors hence the gamble but "c'est la vie". Anyway, independently of the debt, the euro is a huge weight to drag for the French economy, technically for pretty much all the economies of the eurozone part for Germany.
  - tpm 1y ago
    Yes, converting the debt more or less equals a default. I don't see French economy being very dynamic without the euro. If the thought is to take on lot of debt denominated in local currency and then inflate it away (faster than what happens with euro), that only makes things volatile, not dynamic.
    - StopDisinfo910 1y ago
      > Yes, converting the debt more or less equals a default. It's not technically a default but it would definitely have a negative impact on France ability to borrow after so I get your point. > I don't see French economy being very dynamic without the euro. The French economy dynamism was doing mostly ok before the current wave of political instability. France still has great infrastructures, a highly educated population and cheap energy if we exit the european energy market which is artificially tying our energy price to gaz thanks to the shortsightedness of our neighboors. Plenty of advantages we could leverage. Devaluation would solve the issue of the population being politicaly unready to lower its standard of living to lower labour costs on top of helping with the debt burden. Then, there is the obvious political benefit of untying us from people we share neither the culture nor the vision. The argument that pulling sovereignity to gain power is a charade. The utter failure of the commission negotiation with the US revealed what should have been apparent from the start: the emperor has no cloth. Why agree to be in an union which only apparently serves to prop up Germany?
      - tpm 1y ago
        > which is artificially tying our energy price to gaz thanks to the shortsightedness of our neighboors. There were plenty of opportunities to reform the price-setting mechanism of EU energy market, wonder why that never happened. There are several - frankly probably most - countries that are unhappy about it. I don't really understand why nobody makes it a top priority agenda. > Devaluation would solve the issue of the population being politicaly unready to lower its standard of living to lower labour costs on top of helping with the debt burden. Ah yes, make people poor in addition to making the state poor. How could that go wrong.

lawlessone 1y ago

>Better ruined than a colony. Not sure what you're referring to here?

StopDisinfo910 1y ago
It’s me being dramatic for useless flair. I edited it out a minute after posting because it adds nothing to the discussion but you read it before I did.

munksbeer 1y ago

> Hard to tell. We could devaluate. That would help with both the debt situation and our exports. The UK is not doing that bad at all. 1. It is widely recognised, and irritates the poorer countries, that Germany and France benefit from the relatively weak Euro for their exports. 2. If you left the EU and obviously the Euro and devalued your currency, you end up with wild inflation. If there is anything a population hates, it is high inflation. Given your political situation in France currently, no government would last a year in that scenario. 3. Devaluing obviously causes bond rates to rocket, which means rolling over your current debt because extremely serious. 4. On top of that, mortgage rates rocket, people hate that too. There is a reason countries don't just print money and devalue all the time. If it was that easy, everyone would do it.

tpm 1y ago

> That would help with both the debt situation and our exports. But the debt is denominated in euro. If you leave euro and create a new currency, the bonds will still be in euro, while your new currency will be worth much less. It's basically easier and less painful to default on the spot than to go through this. I honestly can't understand the urge to get bankrupt. France is already famous for the revolution and eagerness to protest but this looks like you want to cause chaos just for the sake of it.

StopDisinfo910 1y ago
Entirely depends how on we leave. We could convert the debt when we exit. That's unlikely to please our debtors hence the gamble but "c'est la vie". Anyway, independently of the debt, the euro is a huge weight to drag for the French economy, technically for pretty much all the economies of the eurozone part for Germany.
- tpm 1y ago
  Yes, converting the debt more or less equals a default. I don't see French economy being very dynamic without the euro. If the thought is to take on lot of debt denominated in local currency and then inflate it away (faster than what happens with euro), that only makes things volatile, not dynamic.
  - StopDisinfo910 1y ago
    > Yes, converting the debt more or less equals a default. It's not technically a default but it would definitely have a negative impact on France ability to borrow after so I get your point. > I don't see French economy being very dynamic without the euro. The French economy dynamism was doing mostly ok before the current wave of political instability. France still has great infrastructures, a highly educated population and cheap energy if we exit the european energy market which is artificially tying our energy price to gaz thanks to the shortsightedness of our neighboors. Plenty of advantages we could leverage. Devaluation would solve the issue of the population being politicaly unready to lower its standard of living to lower labour costs on top of helping with the debt burden. Then, there is the obvious political benefit of untying us from people we share neither the culture nor the vision. The argument that pulling sovereignity to gain power is a charade. The utter failure of the commission negotiation with the US revealed what should have been apparent from the start: the emperor has no cloth. Why agree to be in an union which only apparently serves to prop up Germany?
    - tpm 1y ago
      > which is artificially tying our energy price to gaz thanks to the shortsightedness of our neighboors. There were plenty of opportunities to reform the price-setting mechanism of EU energy market, wonder why that never happened. There are several - frankly probably most - countries that are unhappy about it. I don't really understand why nobody makes it a top priority agenda. > Devaluation would solve the issue of the population being politicaly unready to lower its standard of living to lower labour costs on top of helping with the debt burden. Ah yes, make people poor in addition to making the state poor. How could that go wrong.