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The problems that you’re highlighting are self correcting. If the fertility rate drops, houses and spots at colleges become more available.
by sarchertech 1y ago
The problems that you’re highlighting are self correcting. If the fertility rate drops, houses and spots at colleges become more available.
- baq 1y agoAverage age of a home buyer in the us is what? 50-60ish? Should be 20-25.
- Tempest1981 1y ago38 for first-time homebuyers (2024). 56 overall.
- piker 1y agoAgree with both, and you can see this in prep school admissions in the UK, but that adjustment might take a generation.
- sarchertech 1y agoDefinitely might take time. But a generation is 15 years. The timeline the OP was talking about was 30-40 years from now.
- bell-cot 1y agoTrue...eventually. But recall the old saw about how long the market can stay irrational.
- sarchertech 1y ago100%, but the OP is talking about 30-40 years in the future.
- Analemma_ 1y agoThat's not how it works. Housing prices are not allowed to go down, because a massive chunk of Boomer equity is bound up in them. If there's ever a danger of housing prices going down, bailouts will be issued and supply tightened until the "natural" state of things is restored and they go up again.
- sarchertech 1y agoBoomers are 60-80 years old now. They aren’t going to be the problem 30-40 years from now which is the timeline the OP is talking about.
- apercu 1y agoBoomers won't be alive much longer though?
- mothballed 1y agoAll the shitty covenants they put in much/most of even the shittiest of wasteland around me still exist though. There was one piece of absolute shithole land I looked at because I was in the process of building a house. Some dead guy decided to encumber it by requiring me to build a gigantic house if I wanted live there. Reversing it would require something as onerous roughly as getting all people in a 10 mile radius to stand on one foot while reciting the entire bible from memory. Technically possible so it holds up in court as not being a perpetual covenant, but for all intent in purposes was. You would not believe how much land boomers basically ruined forever when they mindlessly engaged in some wack covenants back around the 80s.
- wwweston 1y agoEvery settlement reaches a level of density where they have to re-reckon with land use rules collectively — that’s one of the deep flaws in a primarily private approach to land however appealing (and definitely particularly popular in boomer heydays).
- Jtsummers 1y ago
- jf22 1y agoIt won't be for a long time. World population may increase well into the 2100s.
- UncleOxidant 1y agoBut US population will likely peak much sooner than that. Especially as we're starting to heavily limit immigration.
- slaw 1y agoAfter next president election US will be back to 3 million a year new immigrants.
- UncleOxidant 1y agoThat would probably be a very good thing, but certainly not a given. The Overton Window on immigration has shifted well to the right.
- parasti 1y agoFirst-home buyers aren't the ones causing prices to go up.
- JumpCrisscross 1y agoNew households absolutely are. Whether they choose to rent or buy is secondary.
- kevin_thibedeau 1y agoIt's REITs buying up housing for rental that drives up the pricing. There are serious social consequences to financializing basic needs.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago> It's REITs buying up housing for rental that drives up the pricing Almost certainly not. Institutional investors are too little of the market. And every time someone has seriously investigated this hypothesis, the evidence has been lacking.
- sodpspsosk 1y agoMass self deportation is a fairly easy solution too. It’d cause an immediate glut of homes and jobs. It would also cause economic shock, but that would by and large hurt the capital class. We are in for pain either way, might as well ensure the next generations have ample opportunity. Cut back/tax on legal immigration, tax remittances harder, and penalize those employing illegal immigrants. None of this ICE kabuki theatre is needed (and frankly is cruel and immoral). Obviously this won’t happen because both left & right want immigration.
- ipaddr 1y agoWhat inventory of housing do you think you will unlock when migrants leave? They are the least likely to own a house. The jobs they hold are available to you today. No one wants farm wages.
- sodpspsosk 1y ago> What inventory of housing do you think you will unlock when migrants leave? For legal migrants, many of them are in respectable homes. For the illegal yes it’s lower quality, but regardless supply and demand will hold true. Safety in many of these lower quality homes will increase as well. > The jobs they hold are available to you today. No one wants farm wages. Because we’ve allowed capital to increase their bottom line at the expense of labor. The conditions and pay today are only what they are because we let capital play by different rules. We should not structure America to benefit the few.
- wbl 1y agoHouses are made and maintained by workers. Fewer workers, less building and maintance.
- sarchertech 1y agoSure but labor only accounts for a fraction of the cost of housing and that only goes down as we automate more of the process. Even traditional house are now frequently assembled out of prefabricated sections. There’s also a large existing housing stock.
- HDThoreaun 1y agoThis is only true if houses are made. Right now there are not very many houses being made in this country