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So i'm nodding along with most of this, but I don't understand how they can say something as strange and obviously nonsensical as this: >The incentive for it t

So i'm nodding along with most of this, but I don't understand how they can say something as strange and obviously nonsensical as this: >The incentive for it to happen suddenly is that, even if Nakamoto's fix were in place, someone with access to the first sufficiently powerful quantum computer could transfer 20% of all Bitcoin, currently worth $460B, to post-quantum wallets they controlled. This would be a 230x return on the investment in PsiQuantum. Thats some really bad accounting on the incentives and ROI available. You can't just start selling and expect the price to be stable. But it does bring up a secondary question I've never seen any numbers on; How much money could you possibly make if you knew for certain the value of bitcoin magically went to 1% in a panic sell? Are there any institutions open to selling a billion dollar put option?

earnesti 1y ago
Also it is very likely that the advent of Quantum computing would be gradual. There exists bounty addresses, with ascending difficulty to crack. We would see the progress in steps, not suddenly. These quantum tinfoil scenarios just don't make sense.
nairboon 1y ago
Sure, someone on CME will gladly sell you these options. That futures market has open bets with notional value of more than 10 billion usd. How much money you can make? Depends on how much capital you're willing to bet and the used leverage. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.contractSpecs.options.html https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bi...
yieldcrv 1y ago
These fiat-default takes are uninspired Simply having possession of the bitcoin is valuable. You can borrow against, for other cryptos assets and for fiat. You can invest with it to someone else that also won’t sell it, either at all or all at once, you can obtain goods and services from people that wont sell it, and you can also sell it. Treasury companies are buying billions of BTC per week, for now.

earnesti 1y ago

Also it is very likely that the advent of Quantum computing would be gradual. There exists bounty addresses, with ascending difficulty to crack. We would see the progress in steps, not suddenly. These quantum tinfoil scenarios just don't make sense.

nairboon 1y ago

Sure, someone on CME will gladly sell you these options. That futures market has open bets with notional value of more than 10 billion usd. How much money you can make? Depends on how much capital you're willing to bet and the used leverage. https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bitcoin.contractSpecs.options.html https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bi...

yieldcrv 1y ago

These fiat-default takes are uninspired Simply having possession of the bitcoin is valuable. You can borrow against, for other cryptos assets and for fiat. You can invest with it to someone else that also won’t sell it, either at all or all at once, you can obtain goods and services from people that wont sell it, and you can also sell it. Treasury companies are buying billions of BTC per week, for now.