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So many of these concepts only make sense under the assumption that AI will not get better and humans will continue to pour over code by hand. They won't. In a

So many of these concepts only make sense under the assumption that AI will not get better and humans will continue to pour over code by hand. They won't. In a year or two these will be articles that get linked back to similar to "Is the internet just a fad?" articles of the late 90s.

yfw 1y ago
Or it could also be like blockchain and nfts...
- monkmartinez 1y ago
  I have been programming as a hobby for almost 20 years. At least for me, there is huge value using LLM's for code. I don't need anyone else's permission, nor anyone else to participate for the LLM's to work for me. You absolutely can not say that about blockchain, nft, or crypto in general.
- rhetocj23 1y ago
  Nah that comparison doesnt make sense. There is certainly real market penetration with LLMs. However, there is a huge gap between fantasy and reality - as in what is being promised vs what is being delivered and the effects on the economy are yet to play out.
exasperaited 1y ago
pore*
randallsquared 1y ago
Exactly so. From the article: > But those of us who’ve experimented a lot with using LLMs for code generation and modification know that there will be times when the tool just won’t be able to do it. The pace of change here--the new normal pace--has the potential to make this look outdated in mere months, and finding that the curve topped out exactly in late 2025, such that this remains the state of development for many years, seems intuitively very unlikely.
tkgally 1y ago
A couple of those articles, in case anyone is interested: “The Internet? Bah! Hype alert: Why cyberspace isn't, and will never be, nirvana” by Clifford Stoll (1995) Excerpt: “How about electronic publishing? Try reading a book on disc. At best, it's an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can't tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure.” https://www.nysaflt.org/workshops/colt/2010/The%20Internet.pdf https://www.nysaflt.org/workshops/colt/2010/The%20Internet.p... “Why most economists' predictions are wrong” by Paul Krugman (1998) Excerpt: “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.” https://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue55/economics.html https://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/http://www.redher...
- senordevnyc 1y ago
  Krugman's quotes are even worse in full: The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly.
- singleshot_ 1y ago
  If you assume Krugman was talking about a positive impact, it makes sense to make fun of him.
otabdeveloper4 1y ago
Two more weeks and "AI" will finally be intelligent. Trust the plan.
- jf22 1y ago
  I know this is sarcasm but if you've been using LLMs for most than two weeks you've probably noticed significant improvements in both the models and the tooling. Less than a year ago I was generated somewhat silly and broken unit tests with copilot. Now I'm generating entire feature sets while doing loads of laundry.
  - int_19h 1y ago
    That's all true, yet the problem of hallucinations is as stark today as it was three years ago when GPT-3.5 was all the rage. Until that is solved, I don't think there's any amount of "smartness" of the models that can truly compensate for it.
fhennig 1y ago
Just like how in a year or two we will have fully self-driving cars, right? The last percentage point for something to get just right are the hardest, why are you so sure that the flaws in LLMs will be gone in such a short time frame?
- senordevnyc 1y ago
  We do have fully self-driving cars. You can go to a number of American cities and take a nap in the backseat of one while it drives you around safely.
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - justsocrateasin 1y ago
    But it's not fully self driving. SF Waymo can't bring you to the airport. You missed OPs point, which was that the last few percentage points are the hardest.
    - senordevnyc 1y ago
      They recently got approval for the airport, and the issue was legal / regulatory, not technical. They could have been doing rides from the airport years ago.
gwbas1c 1y ago
I disagree. They Not every technological advance "improves" at an exponential rate. The issue is that LLMs don't "understand." They merely copy without contributing original thought or critical thinking. This is why LLMs can't handle complicated concepts in codebases. What I think we'll see in the long run is: (Short term) Newer programming models that target LLMs: IE, describe what you want the computer to do in plain English, and then the LLM will allow users to interact with the program in a more conversational manner. Edit: These will work in "high tolerance" situations where small amounts of error is okay. (Think analog vs digital, where analog systems tend to tolerate error more gracefully than digital systems.) (Long term) Newer forms of AI that "understand." These will be able to handle complicated programs that LLMs can't handle today, because they have critical thinking and original thought.
metalliqaz 1y ago
This requires an assumption that LLM capability growth will continue on an exponential curve, when there are already signs that in reality the curve is logistic

yfw 1y ago

Or it could also be like blockchain and nfts...

monkmartinez 1y ago
I have been programming as a hobby for almost 20 years. At least for me, there is huge value using LLM's for code. I don't need anyone else's permission, nor anyone else to participate for the LLM's to work for me. You absolutely can not say that about blockchain, nft, or crypto in general.
rhetocj23 1y ago
Nah that comparison doesnt make sense. There is certainly real market penetration with LLMs. However, there is a huge gap between fantasy and reality - as in what is being promised vs what is being delivered and the effects on the economy are yet to play out.

exasperaited 1y ago

pore*

randallsquared 1y ago

Exactly so. From the article: > But those of us who’ve experimented a lot with using LLMs for code generation and modification know that there will be times when the tool just won’t be able to do it. The pace of change here--the new normal pace--has the potential to make this look outdated in mere months, and finding that the curve topped out exactly in late 2025, such that this remains the state of development for many years, seems intuitively very unlikely.

tkgally 1y ago

A couple of those articles, in case anyone is interested: “The Internet? Bah! Hype alert: Why cyberspace isn't, and will never be, nirvana” by Clifford Stoll (1995) Excerpt: “How about electronic publishing? Try reading a book on disc. At best, it's an unpleasant chore: the myopic glow of a clunky computer replaces the friendly pages of a book. And you can't tote that laptop to the beach. Yet Nicholas Negroponte, director of the MIT Media Lab, predicts that we'll soon buy books and newspapers straight over the Internet. Uh, sure.” https://www.nysaflt.org/workshops/colt/2010/The%20Internet.pdf https://www.nysaflt.org/workshops/colt/2010/The%20Internet.p... “Why most economists' predictions are wrong” by Paul Krugman (1998) Excerpt: “By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's.” https://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue55/economics.html https://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/http://www.redher...

senordevnyc 1y ago
Krugman's quotes are even worse in full: The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in "Metcalfe's law"--which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants--becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's. As the rate of technological change in computing slows, the number of jobs for IT specialists will decelerate, then actually turn down; ten years from now, the phrase information economy will sound silly.
singleshot_ 1y ago
If you assume Krugman was talking about a positive impact, it makes sense to make fun of him.

otabdeveloper4 1y ago

Two more weeks and "AI" will finally be intelligent. Trust the plan.

jf22 1y ago
I know this is sarcasm but if you've been using LLMs for most than two weeks you've probably noticed significant improvements in both the models and the tooling. Less than a year ago I was generated somewhat silly and broken unit tests with copilot. Now I'm generating entire feature sets while doing loads of laundry.
- int_19h 1y ago
  That's all true, yet the problem of hallucinations is as stark today as it was three years ago when GPT-3.5 was all the rage. Until that is solved, I don't think there's any amount of "smartness" of the models that can truly compensate for it.

fhennig 1y ago

Just like how in a year or two we will have fully self-driving cars, right? The last percentage point for something to get just right are the hardest, why are you so sure that the flaws in LLMs will be gone in such a short time frame?

senordevnyc 1y ago
We do have fully self-driving cars. You can go to a number of American cities and take a nap in the backseat of one while it drives you around safely.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- justsocrateasin 1y ago
  But it's not fully self driving. SF Waymo can't bring you to the airport. You missed OPs point, which was that the last few percentage points are the hardest.
  - senordevnyc 1y ago
    They recently got approval for the airport, and the issue was legal / regulatory, not technical. They could have been doing rides from the airport years ago.

gwbas1c 1y ago

I disagree. They Not every technological advance "improves" at an exponential rate. The issue is that LLMs don't "understand." They merely copy without contributing original thought or critical thinking. This is why LLMs can't handle complicated concepts in codebases. What I think we'll see in the long run is: (Short term) Newer programming models that target LLMs: IE, describe what you want the computer to do in plain English, and then the LLM will allow users to interact with the program in a more conversational manner. Edit: These will work in "high tolerance" situations where small amounts of error is okay. (Think analog vs digital, where analog systems tend to tolerate error more gracefully than digital systems.) (Long term) Newer forms of AI that "understand." These will be able to handle complicated programs that LLMs can't handle today, because they have critical thinking and original thought.

metalliqaz 1y ago

This requires an assumption that LLM capability growth will continue on an exponential curve, when there are already signs that in reality the curve is logistic