8 ms·

~"Brooks believes the sheer size of Nigeria is going to make it an economic and technological epicenter". I laughed when i read this. The sheer ignorance and f

~"Brooks believes the sheer size of Nigeria is going to make it an economic and technological epicenter". I laughed when i read this. The sheer ignorance and false assumption that large population = epic economic powerhouse is ridiculous. I critize CCP a lot for various reasons but their effective and efficient governance over the last 40 years can not be easily replicated. Good governance is an incredibly rare asset. India has big pupulation but has no good governance. The chance of Nigeria having as good goverance as China is very close to zero.

comboy 1y ago
It's worth noting that China is investing heavily in Nigeria and it is also its biggest lender, it might turn out Nigeria's gov is not that far from CCP.
- ACCount37 1y ago
  China's third world investment adventures are questionable at best. And it would take extraordinary evidence for me to believe in Nigeria's government being competent.
  - chillingeffect 1y ago
    That invokes the ship of theseus. China could terraform Nigeria. Megabridges, super housing projects, surveillance, etc. (Wait this is still the rodney brooks discussion!?)
  - datadrivenangel 1y ago
    Agreed. Uganda has also received significant investment from China, but the lifespan of the infrastructure apparently leaves some to be desired. The new road to the airport in Kampala is a major improvement, but after a year or two of use is already cracking in some places so may not last as long as one would expect.
davidCraigFergu 1y ago
Well since you, of all people, find it hilarious, and honored us with your iron clad, deeply reasoned opinion, it must be immutable truism Time is not a linear function; creation and decay are not a normalized process. A large number of people can change inductive truism.
typpilol 1y ago
To be fair China has a top down control that India and the like don't
thisislife2 1y ago
> India has big population but has no good governance. As an Indian, I would dispute that. When I look back at what we were as a country, when we became independent, to what we are today, our achievements are really astounding.
- HexDecOctBin 1y ago
  > As an Indian, I would dispute that. Don't. It's good for us that they overestimate China and underestimate us. For the next couple decades, we need breathing room to develop; why would you destroy that space by drawing attention to yourself?
  - kakacik 1y ago
    I've spent a lot of time in various parts of India backpacking around in the past. No luxury bubble somewhere on beach of Goa, rather travelling around cramped public transport, sleeping in cheap or free places, interacting only with commoners. Everybody and everything is growing, even North Korea in some aspects is. Thats called a progress and nobody interacting with rest of the world can escape that. What is unfortunately true about India, and many other similar places is the potential of the country and the people and reality where they got and how far they can reach, given their own limitations. From what I've seen, the gap (potential vs reality) is huge compared to western standards, and I don't see an easy way to push through that ceiling. Society isn't fair, its everybody for themselves. Castes are very much a thing still, absolutely horrible and deplorable thing (while this will be read mostly by brahmins or rich merchant castes who rarely see an issue there, so I don't expect much sympathy here). Corruption is abysmal. Women and minority rights are questionable at best. No doubt great and important things will improve in upcoming decades. But in 21st century India will not resemble ie western Europe in any meaningful way, I just don't see a way. Real India is not some Bangalore or Pune bubble, its very opposite of it.
    - HexDecOctBin 1y ago
      Yes, I agree. Which is why you should convince your politicians to forget about puny worthless India and focus all their antagonism towards the great mighty China only. Thank you.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
handsclean 1y ago
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/GDP_per_capita_of_India_%281820_to_present%29.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/GDP_per_...
- elefanten 1y ago
  Normalize that to global and it won’t look quite so stark. Not saying India’s development is unimpressive but let’s put things in a real context
  - abhiyerra 1y ago
    As an Indian I have to agree with this assessment. But India has gone through the socialist phase, it still maintains a liberal democracy and is now rapidly building out its industry. Socialism is completely dead in the cities, my opinion is it will eventually fall once the rural areas also develop. I grew up in the USA and the changes in India even in the last 10 years has been completely astounding. For example I’m from Hyderabad and some of things changes I see: A national freeway that didn’t exist 10 years ago, a metro that covers most of the core of the city, skyscrapers, trains that now ship containers instead of boxcars, massive power plants that have recently been built. Is India perfect? No. It still has a hierarchical society, sectarianism is still pretty acute, like everywhere else in the world India’s fertility rate has dropped off a cliff, and traffic in Hyderabad proper is a nightmare. But culturally the submissive Indian mindset of my youth is largely gone. The millennial India is entrepreneurial and everyone is looking to get ahead. The next 20 years of India will be amazing at which point a lot of the issues of low fertility rates will start affecting India as well. Lastly, I think India really only has capacity to send a sizable amount of its citizens overseas only for the next 5 years or so at which point migration out of India will largely subside.
    - pjc50 1y ago
      > like everywhere else in the world India’s fertility rate has dropped off a cliff It's amazing when people flag this as a bad thing when it's undoubtedly a key component of getting places to prosperity in the first place. Got to get people away from being starvation-limited. > I think India really only has capacity to send a sizable amount of its citizens overseas only for the next 5 years or so at which point migration out of India will largely subside. That's how you can tell a country is ""winning"" in the international rankings, when more people want to move in than move out.
impossiblefork 1y ago
I agree about Nigeria but not about India. My understanding is that they have some very able people in government. There are large countries in Africa that are undergoing fast development though, Kenya for example.
- bluGill 1y ago
  There are 80 some countries in Africa (it has changed since I was in school as borders change). Some of them are doing really good, but most are doing bad. Many of them have seemed to be on the right track for a while and then fallen off again. I wish Kenya the best, but history on that continent hasn't been kind to anyone in my the last few hundred years (but go back farther...)
  - impossiblefork 1y ago
    Yes. Although Kenya is apparently well-functioning enough that some Swedes are happy to do business there and actually operate factories there etc.
    - bluGill 1y ago
      You always are taking risks. Sweden could have a revolution tommorow and turn corrupt - seems unlikely but it could happen.
      - impossiblefork 1y ago
        Certainly, and I don't think I'd move to Kenya to start a factory, but obviously some people think the people there are sensible enough that it looks okay.
arthurofbabylon 1y ago
This reads as rather naive. You think India’s governance is “no good”? It is literally the most culturally complex place on earth, so you might need to recalibrate your metrics and criteria. Additionally, if you believe Nigeria has a near zero chance at good governance, then I suspect you have not read very much history or anthropology. Every instance of civilizational development looks pretty much impossible, and yet “good governance” emerges over and over again. The story of humanity is one of surprising social innovation, and I would never count Nigeria out.
diziet 1y ago
[flagged]
- harperlee 1y ago
  I read here genetics, because you're avoiding a sensitive topic. I actually think that it is culture. Often people attribute to melanin what is very obviously an issue with values and cosmovision, as part of the culture that someone breathes since childbirth. Which is solvable with education but only on generational timescales, unfortunately. Similar to Planck's principle, "Science progresses one funeral at a time".
- random_ind_dude 1y ago
  Till the 1700s India was the largest economy in the world, with China being a close second, based on the chart below, which in turn cites British economist Angus Maddison as the source. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history-one-chart/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history... So why wouldn't India be able to reproduce China's success? Maybe not in the next 20-30 years, but it sure isn't a foregone conclusion that India will always remain poor.
- kouru225 1y ago
  What kind of insane racist dog whistle is this? If you’re gonna come on here and make a crazy insinuation like that you better actually have some educational foundation. Do you know anything about the history of West Africa? Ever read a single book about it or watched a documentary?
Mistletoe 1y ago
Why is it very close to zero? Nigerians in the United States are the most educated immigrant group in the country.

comboy 1y ago

It's worth noting that China is investing heavily in Nigeria and it is also its biggest lender, it might turn out Nigeria's gov is not that far from CCP.

ACCount37 1y ago
China's third world investment adventures are questionable at best. And it would take extraordinary evidence for me to believe in Nigeria's government being competent.
- chillingeffect 1y ago
  That invokes the ship of theseus. China could terraform Nigeria. Megabridges, super housing projects, surveillance, etc. (Wait this is still the rodney brooks discussion!?)
- datadrivenangel 1y ago
  Agreed. Uganda has also received significant investment from China, but the lifespan of the infrastructure apparently leaves some to be desired. The new road to the airport in Kampala is a major improvement, but after a year or two of use is already cracking in some places so may not last as long as one would expect.

davidCraigFergu 1y ago

Well since you, of all people, find it hilarious, and honored us with your iron clad, deeply reasoned opinion, it must be immutable truism Time is not a linear function; creation and decay are not a normalized process. A large number of people can change inductive truism.

typpilol 1y ago

To be fair China has a top down control that India and the like don't

thisislife2 1y ago

> India has big population but has no good governance. As an Indian, I would dispute that. When I look back at what we were as a country, when we became independent, to what we are today, our achievements are really astounding.

HexDecOctBin 1y ago
> As an Indian, I would dispute that. Don't. It's good for us that they overestimate China and underestimate us. For the next couple decades, we need breathing room to develop; why would you destroy that space by drawing attention to yourself?
- kakacik 1y ago
  I've spent a lot of time in various parts of India backpacking around in the past. No luxury bubble somewhere on beach of Goa, rather travelling around cramped public transport, sleeping in cheap or free places, interacting only with commoners. Everybody and everything is growing, even North Korea in some aspects is. Thats called a progress and nobody interacting with rest of the world can escape that. What is unfortunately true about India, and many other similar places is the potential of the country and the people and reality where they got and how far they can reach, given their own limitations. From what I've seen, the gap (potential vs reality) is huge compared to western standards, and I don't see an easy way to push through that ceiling. Society isn't fair, its everybody for themselves. Castes are very much a thing still, absolutely horrible and deplorable thing (while this will be read mostly by brahmins or rich merchant castes who rarely see an issue there, so I don't expect much sympathy here). Corruption is abysmal. Women and minority rights are questionable at best. No doubt great and important things will improve in upcoming decades. But in 21st century India will not resemble ie western Europe in any meaningful way, I just don't see a way. Real India is not some Bangalore or Pune bubble, its very opposite of it.
  - HexDecOctBin 1y ago
    Yes, I agree. Which is why you should convince your politicians to forget about puny worthless India and focus all their antagonism towards the great mighty China only. Thank you.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

handsclean 1y ago

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/GDP_per_capita_of_India_%281820_to_present%29.png https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/5/54/GDP_per_...

elefanten 1y ago
Normalize that to global and it won’t look quite so stark. Not saying India’s development is unimpressive but let’s put things in a real context
- abhiyerra 1y ago
  As an Indian I have to agree with this assessment. But India has gone through the socialist phase, it still maintains a liberal democracy and is now rapidly building out its industry. Socialism is completely dead in the cities, my opinion is it will eventually fall once the rural areas also develop. I grew up in the USA and the changes in India even in the last 10 years has been completely astounding. For example I’m from Hyderabad and some of things changes I see: A national freeway that didn’t exist 10 years ago, a metro that covers most of the core of the city, skyscrapers, trains that now ship containers instead of boxcars, massive power plants that have recently been built. Is India perfect? No. It still has a hierarchical society, sectarianism is still pretty acute, like everywhere else in the world India’s fertility rate has dropped off a cliff, and traffic in Hyderabad proper is a nightmare. But culturally the submissive Indian mindset of my youth is largely gone. The millennial India is entrepreneurial and everyone is looking to get ahead. The next 20 years of India will be amazing at which point a lot of the issues of low fertility rates will start affecting India as well. Lastly, I think India really only has capacity to send a sizable amount of its citizens overseas only for the next 5 years or so at which point migration out of India will largely subside.
  - pjc50 1y ago
    > like everywhere else in the world India’s fertility rate has dropped off a cliff It's amazing when people flag this as a bad thing when it's undoubtedly a key component of getting places to prosperity in the first place. Got to get people away from being starvation-limited. > I think India really only has capacity to send a sizable amount of its citizens overseas only for the next 5 years or so at which point migration out of India will largely subside. That's how you can tell a country is ""winning"" in the international rankings, when more people want to move in than move out.

impossiblefork 1y ago

I agree about Nigeria but not about India. My understanding is that they have some very able people in government. There are large countries in Africa that are undergoing fast development though, Kenya for example.

bluGill 1y ago
There are 80 some countries in Africa (it has changed since I was in school as borders change). Some of them are doing really good, but most are doing bad. Many of them have seemed to be on the right track for a while and then fallen off again. I wish Kenya the best, but history on that continent hasn't been kind to anyone in my the last few hundred years (but go back farther...)
- impossiblefork 1y ago
  Yes. Although Kenya is apparently well-functioning enough that some Swedes are happy to do business there and actually operate factories there etc.
  - bluGill 1y ago
    You always are taking risks. Sweden could have a revolution tommorow and turn corrupt - seems unlikely but it could happen.
    - impossiblefork 1y ago
      Certainly, and I don't think I'd move to Kenya to start a factory, but obviously some people think the people there are sensible enough that it looks okay.

arthurofbabylon 1y ago

This reads as rather naive. You think India’s governance is “no good”? It is literally the most culturally complex place on earth, so you might need to recalibrate your metrics and criteria. Additionally, if you believe Nigeria has a near zero chance at good governance, then I suspect you have not read very much history or anthropology. Every instance of civilizational development looks pretty much impossible, and yet “good governance” emerges over and over again. The story of humanity is one of surprising social innovation, and I would never count Nigeria out.

diziet 1y ago

[flagged]

harperlee 1y ago
I read here genetics, because you're avoiding a sensitive topic. I actually think that it is culture. Often people attribute to melanin what is very obviously an issue with values and cosmovision, as part of the culture that someone breathes since childbirth. Which is solvable with education but only on generational timescales, unfortunately. Similar to Planck's principle, "Science progresses one funeral at a time".
random_ind_dude 1y ago
Till the 1700s India was the largest economy in the world, with China being a close second, based on the chart below, which in turn cites British economist Angus Maddison as the source. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history-one-chart/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history... So why wouldn't India be able to reproduce China's success? Maybe not in the next 20-30 years, but it sure isn't a foregone conclusion that India will always remain poor.
kouru225 1y ago
What kind of insane racist dog whistle is this? If you’re gonna come on here and make a crazy insinuation like that you better actually have some educational foundation. Do you know anything about the history of West Africa? Ever read a single book about it or watched a documentary?

Mistletoe 1y ago

Why is it very close to zero? Nigerians in the United States are the most educated immigrant group in the country.