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That's a weird example, because they were vindicated. The .com economy really did massively change the way business is done. They just (fatally, for most of t

by jefftk 1y ago

That's a weird example, because they were vindicated. The .com economy really did massively change the way business is done. They just (fatally, for most of the companies) overestimated how quickly the change would happen.

Forgeties79 1y ago
Having a bubble doesn’t mean the industry entirely implodes and goes away forever or otherwise doesn’t change things. It’s often a phase.
- mlyle 1y ago
  I think a bubble implies that the industry was overvalued compared to its long term fundamental value. Having a dip and then a return to growth and exceeding the previous peak size isn't exactly a bubble. The internet and tech sector has grown to dominate the global economy. What happened was more of a cyclical correction, or a dip and rebound.
  - johnnyanmac 1y ago
    >Having a dip and then a return to growth and exceeding the previous peak size isn't exactly a bubble. That's exactly what a bubble is. You blow too fast and you get nothing but soap. You blow slow, controlled breaths balancing speed and accuracy and you get a big, sustainable bubble. No one's saying you can't blow a new bubble, just that this current one isn't long for this world. It's just that the way investments work is that the first bubble popping will scare off a lot of the biggest investors who just want a quick turnaround.
    - mlyle 1y ago
      A bubble's when values inflate well beyond intrinsic valuations. You can have a crash without this having happened.
      - johnnyanmac 1y ago
        Yes, indeed. Thought I'd change "intrinsic valuations" to "rapid change in valuations". If you deflate over time slowly (or simply slow growth expectations) you can prevent a pop. That doesn't tend to be what historically happens, though.
        mlyle 1y ago
        > to "rapid change in valuations". Yes. This seems to be what you're doing-- carrying the metaphor too far. I believe the common use relates the asset prices to intrinsic or fundamental values.
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by jefftk 1y ago

Forgeties79 1y ago

Having a bubble doesn’t mean the industry entirely implodes and goes away forever or otherwise doesn’t change things. It’s often a phase.

mlyle 1y ago
I think a bubble implies that the industry was overvalued compared to its long term fundamental value. Having a dip and then a return to growth and exceeding the previous peak size isn't exactly a bubble. The internet and tech sector has grown to dominate the global economy. What happened was more of a cyclical correction, or a dip and rebound.
- johnnyanmac 1y ago
  >Having a dip and then a return to growth and exceeding the previous peak size isn't exactly a bubble. That's exactly what a bubble is. You blow too fast and you get nothing but soap. You blow slow, controlled breaths balancing speed and accuracy and you get a big, sustainable bubble. No one's saying you can't blow a new bubble, just that this current one isn't long for this world. It's just that the way investments work is that the first bubble popping will scare off a lot of the biggest investors who just want a quick turnaround.
  - mlyle 1y ago
    A bubble's when values inflate well beyond intrinsic valuations. You can have a crash without this having happened.
    - johnnyanmac 1y ago
      Yes, indeed. Thought I'd change "intrinsic valuations" to "rapid change in valuations". If you deflate over time slowly (or simply slow growth expectations) you can prevent a pop. That doesn't tend to be what historically happens, though.
      - mlyle 1y ago
        > to "rapid change in valuations". Yes. This seems to be what you're doing-- carrying the metaphor too far. I believe the common use relates the asset prices to intrinsic or fundamental values.

deleted 1y ago

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