3 ms·
I am flabbergasted by the naivety around predicting the future. While we have hints and suggestions, our predictions are best expressed as ranges of possibiliti
by arthurofbabylon 1y ago
I am flabbergasted by the naivety around predicting the future. While we have hints and suggestions, our predictions are best expressed as ranges of possibilities with varying weights. The hyperbolic among us like to pretend that predictions come in the form of precise lines of predetermined direction and curve; how foolish!
Predicting exponential growth is exceptionally difficult. Asymptotes are ordinary, and they often are not obvious until circumstances make them appear (in other words, they are commonly unpredictable).
(I do agree with the author regarding the potential of LLM's remaining underestimated by much of the public, however I cannot hang around such abysmal reasoning.)
- guy2345 1y ago[flagged]
- arthurofbabylon 1y agoIt’s a matter of correctness and utility. You can improve your odds of correctness (and thus usefulness) by adjusting the scope of your projection. This applies not only to predicting the future. Consider measuring something: you carefully choose your level of precision for practical reasons. Consider goal setting: you leave abundant room for variation because your goal is not expressed in hyper narrow terms, but you don’t leave it so loose that you don’t know what steps to take. When expressed in sufficiently narrow terms, no one will ever predict anything. When expressed in sufficiently broad terms, everyone can predict everything. So the point is to modulate the scope until attaining utility.