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There is no flaw. If you go to any retailer where sales can be tied to accounts, and you run a few SQL queries on their sales history database, you can generate

There is no flaw. If you go to any retailer where sales can be tied to accounts, and you run a few SQL queries on their sales history database, you can generate a table of counts of transaction_n and transaction_n+1. You will find that the most probable (the mode of the distribution) thing to buy in transaction n+1 is either a substitute for, a complement of, or identical to transaction n.

4ggr0 1y ago
isn't there a difference between buying a gallon of milk every week because that's part of your standard household equipment versus an item you buy once every couple of years? i think no one would disagree that there are things they buy very frequently, almost on a schedule. (then again, with these items people are probably very accustomed to buying the same brand of milk every week, so ads don't seem reasonable here as well).
- likium 1y ago
  The incentive to show post-purchase ads is: 1. people didn't like nth purchase so they're looking for a substitute. 2. reinforce purchase behaviors / reduce buyer's remorse. Ads work at human psychology; they're not fully logical. Though I'm sure there's inefficiency in marketing but if post-purchase ads weren't ROI positive, I doubt the market would be paying for them.
- labcomputer 1y ago
  Like I said before, this phenomenon is broadly applicable across almost everything. I’m hedging with “almost” because I haven’t personally seen data for every category of product, but I believe that it applies universally. In a sibling comment I replied to someone with an objection that it doesn’t apply to cars… with a personal anecdote that it does, at least sometimes, apply to even cars. Even governments do it: Having previous purchased a nuclear submarine is highly predictive of future nuclear submarine purchases. Likewise, you probably have not purchased a nuclear submarine, which makes me think you probably won’t buy one this year. ;-)

4ggr0 1y ago

isn't there a difference between buying a gallon of milk every week because that's part of your standard household equipment versus an item you buy once every couple of years? i think no one would disagree that there are things they buy very frequently, almost on a schedule. (then again, with these items people are probably very accustomed to buying the same brand of milk every week, so ads don't seem reasonable here as well).

likium 1y ago
The incentive to show post-purchase ads is: 1. people didn't like nth purchase so they're looking for a substitute. 2. reinforce purchase behaviors / reduce buyer's remorse. Ads work at human psychology; they're not fully logical. Though I'm sure there's inefficiency in marketing but if post-purchase ads weren't ROI positive, I doubt the market would be paying for them.
labcomputer 1y ago
Like I said before, this phenomenon is broadly applicable across almost everything. I’m hedging with “almost” because I haven’t personally seen data for every category of product, but I believe that it applies universally. In a sibling comment I replied to someone with an objection that it doesn’t apply to cars… with a personal anecdote that it does, at least sometimes, apply to even cars. Even governments do it: Having previous purchased a nuclear submarine is highly predictive of future nuclear submarine purchases. Likewise, you probably have not purchased a nuclear submarine, which makes me think you probably won’t buy one this year. ;-)