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I don't see how there's a Russian central authority upon the destruction of the great cities. It's state collapse. It's never going to get up. The cultural and

I don't see how there's a Russian central authority upon the destruction of the great cities. It's state collapse. It's never going to get up. The cultural and intellectual elite's gone and there's nothing.

hollerith 1y ago
Whether the elite is gone depends on whether the elite sought shelter from a nuclear attack, like it did during the start of the invasion of Ukraine. (The Russian regime has facilities built into granite in the Southern Ural mountains that can withstand direct attack from nukes.) Also, if an attacker does manage to kill everyone in the ruling coalition during a time of existential war, a new ruling coalition forms that is just as committed to the war as the old coalition. A government of a society like Russia (or the US for that matter or Britain) doesn't collapse when it is hit very hard. Everyone rallies around the government, or more precisely, most people rally around and the rest either remain silent or get imprisoned or killed. Hitler famously believed that the Soviet Union would collapse if invaded: "We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down," he said. It didn't collapse, nor did China when Japan invaded and killed millions of Chinese and occupied all its coastal cities. Neither of China's two governments collapsed even though before the Japanese invasion the two governments were engaged in a civil war that was in itself the third most deadly war of the 20th Century. The most powerful military in the world could not force regime change on Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s or on Afghanistan in the 2000s and 2010s. This is because when invaded, most countries will become very unified around the goal of expelling the invader -- and a big nuclear attack will elicit the same "nationalistic" feelings as an invasion.
- impossiblefork 1y ago
  The political leadership did do so, but I'm not talking about the political leadership, I'm talking about the class the produces MSU and SPbU professors, engineers, etc. At best they'll be going into the subway. I think losses would be >75% though.

hollerith 1y ago

Whether the elite is gone depends on whether the elite sought shelter from a nuclear attack, like it did during the start of the invasion of Ukraine. (The Russian regime has facilities built into granite in the Southern Ural mountains that can withstand direct attack from nukes.) Also, if an attacker does manage to kill everyone in the ruling coalition during a time of existential war, a new ruling coalition forms that is just as committed to the war as the old coalition. A government of a society like Russia (or the US for that matter or Britain) doesn't collapse when it is hit very hard. Everyone rallies around the government, or more precisely, most people rally around and the rest either remain silent or get imprisoned or killed. Hitler famously believed that the Soviet Union would collapse if invaded: "We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down," he said. It didn't collapse, nor did China when Japan invaded and killed millions of Chinese and occupied all its coastal cities. Neither of China's two governments collapsed even though before the Japanese invasion the two governments were engaged in a civil war that was in itself the third most deadly war of the 20th Century. The most powerful military in the world could not force regime change on Vietnam in the 1960s and 1970s or on Afghanistan in the 2000s and 2010s. This is because when invaded, most countries will become very unified around the goal of expelling the invader -- and a big nuclear attack will elicit the same "nationalistic" feelings as an invasion.

impossiblefork 1y ago
The political leadership did do so, but I'm not talking about the political leadership, I'm talking about the class the produces MSU and SPbU professors, engineers, etc. At best they'll be going into the subway. I think losses would be >75% though.