3 ms·
"It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future" - Yogi Berra. It's funny because it's true. So if you want to try to do this difficult task,
by oofbey 1y ago
"It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future" - Yogi Berra. It's funny because it's true.
So if you want to try to do this difficult task, because say there's billions of dollars and millions of people's livelihoods on the line, how do you do it? Gather a bunch of data, and see if there's some trend? Then maybe it makes sense to extrapolate. Seems pretty reasonable to me. Definitely passes the sniff test. Not sure why you think "line go up more" is such a stupid concept.
- danlitt 1y agoIt's a stupid concept because it's behind every ponzi scheme.
- oofbey 1y agoIn Ponzi schemes the numbers are generally faked.
- athrowaway3z 1y agoIsn't one of those scalers getting money from NVIDIA to buy NVIDIA cards which they use as collateral to borrow more money to buy more NVIDIA cards which NVIDIA put up as revenue which bumps the stock price which they invest into OpenAI which invests into Oracle which buys more NVIDIA cards? Its not a Ponzi scheme, and I don't have a crystal ball to determine where supply and demand will best meet, but a lot seems to be riding on the promise of future demand selling at a premium. I'm not yet ready to believe this is the thing that permanently breaks supply and demand. More compute demand is likely, but the state of the art: resale-users, providers, and suppliers, will all get hit with more competition.
- danlitt 1y agoThe numbers are fake, but the returns are real, until they aren't. If all you go off is past performance then you will fall for any scam.