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> By following this logic you should have predicted Moore’s law would halt every year for the last five decades. I hope you see why this is a flawed argument. Y
by LegionMammal978 1y ago
> By following this logic you should have predicted Moore’s law would halt every year for the last five decades. I hope you see why this is a flawed argument. You prove too much.
I do think it's continually amazing that Moore's law has continued in some capacity for decades. But before trumpeting the age of exponential growth, I'd love to see plenty of examples that aren't named "Moore's law": as it stands, one easy hypothesis is that "ability to cram transistors into mass-produced boards" lends itself particularly well to newly-discovered strategies.
> So I wouldn’t bet on exponential growth in AI capabilities for the next 10 years, but I would consider it very foolish to use pure induction to bet on growth stopping within 1 year.
Great, we both agree that it's foolish to bet on growth stopping within 1 year. What I'm saying that "growth doesn't stop" ≠ "growth is exponential".
A theory of "inertia" could just as well support linear growth: it's only because we stare at relative growth rates that we treat exponential growth as a "constant" that will continue in the absence of explicit barriers.
- theptip 1y agoSorry, to be clear I was making the stronger claim: I would consider it very foolish to use pure induction to bet on _exponential_ growth stopping within 1 year. I think you can easily find plenty of other long-lasting exponential curves. A good starting point would be: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_studies https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Progress_studies With perhaps the optimistic case as https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerating_change This is where I’d really like to be able to point to our respective Manifold predictions on the subject; we could circle back in a year’s time and review who was in fact correct. I wager internet points it will be me :) Concretely, https://manifold.markets/JoshYou/best-ai-time-horizon-by-august-2026 https://manifold.markets/JoshYou/best-ai-time-horizon-by-aug...
- sdenton4 1y agoSolar panel cost per watt has been dropping exponentially for decades as well... Partly these are matters of economies of scale - reduction in production costs at scale - and partly it's a matter of increasing human attention leading to steady improvements as the technology itself becomes more ubiquitous.