Somewhat missed by many comments proclaiming that it’s sigmoidal is that sigmoid curves exhibit significant growth after it stops looking exponential. Unless yo

Somewhat missed by many comments proclaiming that it’s sigmoidal is that sigmoid curves exhibit significant growth after it stops looking exponential. Unless you think things have already hit a dramatic wall you should probably assume further growth. We should probably expect compute to get cheaper at the same time, so that’s performance increases with lowering costs. Even after things flatline for performance you would expect lowering costs of inference. Without specific evidence it’s also unlikely you randomly pick the point on a sigmoid where things change.