4 ms·

The Post-American Order Starts in Riyadh and Islamabad

27 points by nabla9 1y ago

nabla9 1y ago
https://archive.ph/JjKvv https://archive.ph/JjKvv >Renewed defense ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan provide a taste of what’s to come as the US retreats from its traditional alliances.
firesteelrain 1y ago
This is more about hedging/diversification. US has had bases in Saudi Arabia since the 90s. There was some shifting to Qatar in the past then re establishment of some base infra in 2019 due to Iran. Calling it the start of a post American order feels like headline chasing. Riyadh is hedging, not cutting ties with Washington. Islamabad is hunting for relevance.
- anonymousDan 1y ago
  I thought it was an interesting article. Gave some insight into the different strategic relationships between countries in the area beyond the usual discussions of their relationship with the West.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  That's the point. Hedging and multipolar tactical relations is by definition a post-America relationship, and is a result of the relative (not absolute) decline in American power. America was able to be the sole hyperpower in the 1990s and 2000s because we were the largest economy in PPP by far in 2000 [0] with 20% of global GDP PPP and with no near competitor. In 2025, we are now at 14% of global GDP PPP [1] and outcompeted by China. And in the 2030s, the US's share of GDP PPP will converge with India's [2] Mind you, GDP and especially GDP PPP is basically a function of production based on relative value, and China+India are seeing this growth due to a large population size along with generational reforms from the 1970s-1980s and 1990s-2000s respectively finally starting to pay off, but there is no way to deny that middle powers can now make their own economic and defense alliances independent of the "West" or "China", and will increasingly make their own poles. For example, the fact that the newly constructed Dangote Refinery - Africa's largest refinery, and 6th largest in the world and larger than any refinery owned or operated by an American company - is built and operated by an Indian SOE [3] highlights how an entire region (West Africa) that has historically been dependent on American refining capacity from Chevron despite being a major oil producer is now working with a non-western country to remove that reliance. A Nigeria+India story, a Cambodia+China story, a Angola+Brazil story, a Vietnam+Russia story, and others are developing out of relative convergence of interests. This is not a stable world. This means that regional conflicts can cause contagion in other conflicts in the world. For example, the Russia-Ukraine War now pulling the South Korea, North Korea, and Japan into the conflict. Or the Thailand-Cambodia conflict, where neither the US nor China knew how to respond because it would alienate either Thailand or Cambodia to align with either the US or China. [0] - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVE... [1] - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVE... [2] - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVE... [3] - https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemical-project https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemica...
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pictureofabear 1y ago
This is not new. None of the Arab countries have ever fully aligned with the US. They routinely host Russia and China and buy their hardware. They will continue to host the US and buy its hardware as well. A fundamental misunderstanding of the West is that these countries will, with time, align philosophically against the West's enemies. They are concerned with preservation of their regimes and their ways of life. They recognize that they have no foundational shared story with the West (religious or otherwise), and that without such shared origins and culture, Western people will not fight to save Arabs when resources get tight. So what do they do? Hedge their alliances so that they always have someone to turn to.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  > None of the Arab countries have ever fully aligned with the US That's patently false. The Gulf States have been aligned with the US for almost 90 years now. The US's intervention in Iraq to protect Kuwait in 1991, to overthrow Saddam Hussein in 2004 (the way Kim Jong Un is lampooned in American media is how Saddam is still lampooned in Saudi media [0]), our backing of Saudi-aligned Hariri in Lebanon, and various other foreign policy interventions and alignments in Western Asia were aligned with the Gulf States and vice versa. The difference is, 1. Obama and later Biden decided to cut off American support for the Saudi war against the Houthis in Yemen 2. Trump was "convinced" by Rex Tillerson to stop Saudi and the UAE from invading Qatar and hoisting the Thani family with a construction crane. This convinced all the Gulf States that US foreign policy can no longer be trusted, and they need to be like Qatar and build their own alliances with regional powers. [0] - https://www.facebook.com/masameer/videos/%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%83%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B2%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%8Ahttpsyoutub/1396277127070292/ https://www.facebook.com/masameer/videos/%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-...
  - apercu 1y ago
    OP did write "fully aligned". The US is increasingly turning in to a religious state. Most of the Middle East are people who are part of a religion fundamentally in conflict with the religiosity of America and vice versa. Ridiculous to me as I don't subscribe to any of this, but oh well.
cherryteastain 1y ago
Makes sense, considering America lets Israel bomb the capital cities of its Arab "major non-NATO allies" [1] [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5jl77ygv4o https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5jl77ygv4o
mielioort 1y ago
[dead]
tibbydudeza 1y ago
I wonder if there is work being started in Pakistan on conversion kits for the Saudi DF-3 and DF-21 missiles.
daft_pink 1y ago
It’s kind of like the dollar where everyone hates the dollar, but the alternatives aren’t really better.

27 points by nabla9 1y ago

https://archive.ph/JjKvv https://archive.ph/JjKvv >Renewed defense ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan provide a taste of what’s to come as the US retreats from its traditional alliances.

firesteelrain 1y ago

This is more about hedging/diversification. US has had bases in Saudi Arabia since the 90s. There was some shifting to Qatar in the past then re establishment of some base infra in 2019 due to Iran. Calling it the start of a post American order feels like headline chasing. Riyadh is hedging, not cutting ties with Washington. Islamabad is hunting for relevance.

anonymousDan 1y ago
I thought it was an interesting article. Gave some insight into the different strategic relationships between countries in the area beyond the usual discussions of their relationship with the West.
alephnerd 1y ago
That's the point. Hedging and multipolar tactical relations is by definition a post-America relationship, and is a result of the relative (not absolute) decline in American power. America was able to be the sole hyperpower in the 1990s and 2000s because we were the largest economy in PPP by far in 2000 [0] with 20% of global GDP PPP and with no near competitor. In 2025, we are now at 14% of global GDP PPP [1] and outcompeted by China. And in the 2030s, the US's share of GDP PPP will converge with India's [2] Mind you, GDP and especially GDP PPP is basically a function of production based on relative value, and China+India are seeing this growth due to a large population size along with generational reforms from the 1970s-1980s and 1990s-2000s respectively finally starting to pay off, but there is no way to deny that middle powers can now make their own economic and defense alliances independent of the "West" or "China", and will increasingly make their own poles. For example, the fact that the newly constructed Dangote Refinery - Africa's largest refinery, and 6th largest in the world and larger than any refinery owned or operated by an American company - is built and operated by an Indian SOE [3] highlights how an entire region (West Africa) that has historically been dependent on American refining capacity from Chevron despite being a major oil producer is now working with a non-western country to remove that reliance. A Nigeria+India story, a Cambodia+China story, a Angola+Brazil story, a Vietnam+Russia story, and others are developing out of relative convergence of interests. This is not a stable world. This means that regional conflicts can cause contagion in other conflicts in the world. For example, the Russia-Ukraine War now pulling the South Korea, North Korea, and Japan into the conflict. Or the Thailand-Cambodia conflict, where neither the US nor China knew how to respond because it would alienate either Thailand or Cambodia to align with either the US or China. [0] - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVE... [1] - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVE... [2] - https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PPPSH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVE... [3] - https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemical-project https://engineersindia.com/dangote-refinery-and-petrochemica...

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pictureofabear 1y ago

This is not new. None of the Arab countries have ever fully aligned with the US. They routinely host Russia and China and buy their hardware. They will continue to host the US and buy its hardware as well. A fundamental misunderstanding of the West is that these countries will, with time, align philosophically against the West's enemies. They are concerned with preservation of their regimes and their ways of life. They recognize that they have no foundational shared story with the West (religious or otherwise), and that without such shared origins and culture, Western people will not fight to save Arabs when resources get tight. So what do they do? Hedge their alliances so that they always have someone to turn to.

alephnerd 1y ago
> None of the Arab countries have ever fully aligned with the US That's patently false. The Gulf States have been aligned with the US for almost 90 years now. The US's intervention in Iraq to protect Kuwait in 1991, to overthrow Saddam Hussein in 2004 (the way Kim Jong Un is lampooned in American media is how Saddam is still lampooned in Saudi media [0]), our backing of Saudi-aligned Hariri in Lebanon, and various other foreign policy interventions and alignments in Western Asia were aligned with the Gulf States and vice versa. The difference is, 1. Obama and later Biden decided to cut off American support for the Saudi war against the Houthis in Yemen 2. Trump was "convinced" by Rex Tillerson to stop Saudi and the UAE from invading Qatar and hoisting the Thani family with a construction crane. This convinced all the Gulf States that US foreign policy can no longer be trusted, and they need to be like Qatar and build their own alliances with regional powers. [0] - https://www.facebook.com/masameer/videos/%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-%D9%83%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%B5%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%AD%D8%B3%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%B3%D8%A8%D8%A8-%D9%84%D8%AA%D8%B1%D9%83-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%83%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1-%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%84-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D9%85%D9%84-%D8%A8%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AA%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B2%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%86%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1-%D8%AC%D8%A7%D9%83%D9%88%D8%B2%D9%8Ahttpsyoutub/1396277127070292/ https://www.facebook.com/masameer/videos/%D9%83%D9%8A%D9%81-...
- apercu 1y ago
  OP did write "fully aligned". The US is increasingly turning in to a religious state. Most of the Middle East are people who are part of a religion fundamentally in conflict with the religiosity of America and vice versa. Ridiculous to me as I don't subscribe to any of this, but oh well.

cherryteastain 1y ago

Makes sense, considering America lets Israel bomb the capital cities of its Arab "major non-NATO allies" [1] [1] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5jl77ygv4o https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cq5jl77ygv4o

mielioort 1y ago

[dead]

tibbydudeza 1y ago

I wonder if there is work being started in Pakistan on conversion kits for the Saudi DF-3 and DF-21 missiles.

daft_pink 1y ago

It’s kind of like the dollar where everyone hates the dollar, but the alternatives aren’t really better.