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If other engineers are getting the productivity boost that I am from AI, then we are just scratching the surface of it's effect on the economy. And if they are

If other engineers are getting the productivity boost that I am from AI, then we are just scratching the surface of it's effect on the economy. And if they aren't, then they will be soon enough.

dgfitz 1y ago
Slinging code is not really the point. Making money off said code is the point. Making more money than you spend maintaining it is really the point. I don’t think over the last 5-8 years there has been a shortage of code-slingers, as evidenced by all the tech layoffs. Using LLMs to generate more code does not equal productivity. There’s that famous story about the -2000 LOC commit, etc.
- throwaway31131 1y ago
  Also, the big challenges in software organizations I deal with are getting a group of a dozen or so “code-slingers” to work effectively as a team. That’s really hard and it’s been the fundamental management problem for the entire time I’ve been in the industry, which is decades. Not enough LOC has never really been a thing.
  - skydhash 1y ago
    Also the many communications roundtrips to know what to code-sling. That's just as difficult as doing code-slinging well as a group.
  - delusional 1y ago
    I've only been in industry for 7 years. So far, the problem I've seen at my two employers have been stopping the "code-slingers" from making absolutely worthless systems that create a ton on noise in the organization, and redirecting their efforts towards long term valuable and productive ends. From observation and induction, it seems very easy to contribute net-negative value in a software development position, and delivering long-term net positive value really requires a lot of discipline from the developers, or a lot of wrangling from non-technical members. PS: Discipline here does not mean "being picky about what things to accept" it means being picky about what things you make up. From observation, a lot of the most valuable work is super fucking boring, and it takes discipline not to make up a more intellectually stimulating task.
  - WalterSear 1y ago
    AI solves that problem with brute force: if you need 5x fewer engineers working on an application, your team will find coordination 5x easier.
- WalterSear 1y ago
  It's not about an engineer shortage - it's about exponentially cheaper and faster engineering. I could not have attempted to create the application I have created without it. As far as money-making - I wager it's helped me a great deal more in regards to preparation for marketing and sales, since I barely knew where to start with that. But I don't have the tangible proof yet, since I'm just starting that process up.
  - throwaway31131 1y ago
    In my opinion you've actually hit upon the interesting part of AI. If you can create an application easily with AI, then someone else can also create that application easily with AI. This means the value is no longer in that application merely existing. To me, this means that the value, i.e. the things people will pay for, in software will increasingly come from branding on the low end and from the applications that AI can't yet create on the high end.
majormajor 1y ago
I'm waiting to see the output. There should be some amazing new end-user-facing software, or features in existing software, or reduced amounts of bugs in software, any day now...?
- Lionga 1y ago
  I see so many on HN say they got 10 times more productive but nobody ever has anything to show.
  - WalterSear 1y ago
    I don't think that my product demos will tell you much about how effective AI has been, but here: https://youtube.com/@groove-tronic https://youtube.com/@groove-tronic Now you can't say nobody has anything to show. This does real-time DSP (time stretching, effects, analog emulation), in a language I didn't know when I started (C++), that I started a couple of months ago. I could not have created this without AI, cannot make progress without AI. When I use up my Pro account limits, I'm done for the day - I'm too slow without it for continuing to make sense.
    - weikju 1y ago
      > I could not have created this without AI, cannot make progress without AI. When I use up my Pro account limits, I'm done for the day - I'm too slow without it for continuing to make sense. And this is why untold billions are sunk into AI. Creates a dependency on their services and removes agency from end users. Edit: yes I’m aware it adds agency in the sense that some people can do things they couldn’t do before… as long as that’s permitted/surveilles, which is where the agency is lost.
      - WalterSear 1y ago
        Same as github, then. Same as photoshop. Same as any SAAS. I've don't see how I've lost agency. It's not like it's made me a worse coder: getting so much faster with AI hasn't made me slower without it.
bossyTeacher 1y ago
Productivity boost ain't free though. Once the transformer tech stops being subsidised and you have to pay for it, we will see if the productivity gains are worth the subscription cost
- WalterSear 1y ago
  It doesn't entirely negate what you are saying, but Anthropic says they are already cash positive on inference.

If other engineers are getting the productivity boost that I am from AI, then we are just scratching the surface of it's effect on the economy. And if they aren't, then they will be soon enough.

dgfitz 1y ago

Slinging code is not really the point. Making money off said code is the point. Making more money than you spend maintaining it is really the point. I don’t think over the last 5-8 years there has been a shortage of code-slingers, as evidenced by all the tech layoffs. Using LLMs to generate more code does not equal productivity. There’s that famous story about the -2000 LOC commit, etc.

throwaway31131 1y ago
Also, the big challenges in software organizations I deal with are getting a group of a dozen or so “code-slingers” to work effectively as a team. That’s really hard and it’s been the fundamental management problem for the entire time I’ve been in the industry, which is decades. Not enough LOC has never really been a thing.
- skydhash 1y ago
  Also the many communications roundtrips to know what to code-sling. That's just as difficult as doing code-slinging well as a group.
- delusional 1y ago
  I've only been in industry for 7 years. So far, the problem I've seen at my two employers have been stopping the "code-slingers" from making absolutely worthless systems that create a ton on noise in the organization, and redirecting their efforts towards long term valuable and productive ends. From observation and induction, it seems very easy to contribute net-negative value in a software development position, and delivering long-term net positive value really requires a lot of discipline from the developers, or a lot of wrangling from non-technical members. PS: Discipline here does not mean "being picky about what things to accept" it means being picky about what things you make up. From observation, a lot of the most valuable work is super fucking boring, and it takes discipline not to make up a more intellectually stimulating task.
- WalterSear 1y ago
  AI solves that problem with brute force: if you need 5x fewer engineers working on an application, your team will find coordination 5x easier.
WalterSear 1y ago
It's not about an engineer shortage - it's about exponentially cheaper and faster engineering. I could not have attempted to create the application I have created without it. As far as money-making - I wager it's helped me a great deal more in regards to preparation for marketing and sales, since I barely knew where to start with that. But I don't have the tangible proof yet, since I'm just starting that process up.
- throwaway31131 1y ago
  In my opinion you've actually hit upon the interesting part of AI. If you can create an application easily with AI, then someone else can also create that application easily with AI. This means the value is no longer in that application merely existing. To me, this means that the value, i.e. the things people will pay for, in software will increasingly come from branding on the low end and from the applications that AI can't yet create on the high end.

majormajor 1y ago

I'm waiting to see the output. There should be some amazing new end-user-facing software, or features in existing software, or reduced amounts of bugs in software, any day now...?

Lionga 1y ago
I see so many on HN say they got 10 times more productive but nobody ever has anything to show.
- WalterSear 1y ago
  I don't think that my product demos will tell you much about how effective AI has been, but here: https://youtube.com/@groove-tronic https://youtube.com/@groove-tronic Now you can't say nobody has anything to show. This does real-time DSP (time stretching, effects, analog emulation), in a language I didn't know when I started (C++), that I started a couple of months ago. I could not have created this without AI, cannot make progress without AI. When I use up my Pro account limits, I'm done for the day - I'm too slow without it for continuing to make sense.
  - weikju 1y ago
    > I could not have created this without AI, cannot make progress without AI. When I use up my Pro account limits, I'm done for the day - I'm too slow without it for continuing to make sense. And this is why untold billions are sunk into AI. Creates a dependency on their services and removes agency from end users. Edit: yes I’m aware it adds agency in the sense that some people can do things they couldn’t do before… as long as that’s permitted/surveilles, which is where the agency is lost.
    - WalterSear 1y ago
      Same as github, then. Same as photoshop. Same as any SAAS. I've don't see how I've lost agency. It's not like it's made me a worse coder: getting so much faster with AI hasn't made me slower without it.

bossyTeacher 1y ago

Productivity boost ain't free though. Once the transformer tech stops being subsidised and you have to pay for it, we will see if the productivity gains are worth the subscription cost

WalterSear 1y ago
It doesn't entirely negate what you are saying, but Anthropic says they are already cash positive on inference.