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Sharply declining usage? I don't see the stats to back that up on https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats Usage has absolutely declined from

Sharply declining usage? I don't see the stats to back that up on https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats Usage has absolutely declined from peak switching periods where inevitibly some users won't stick around, but that's to be expected. Most stats seem to be leveling off (which isn't exactly stable growth either so the rest of your points stand).

tptacek 1y ago
Yeah, I think what you needed to do here is zoom out. That's a sharply declining chart. I understand that as a Bluesky user the peak and dropoff doesn't hurt the experience. But investors are going to put money in with the expectation of a return and what they're going to look at are the derivatives of the adoption curve: how quickly is it gaining users, and is adoption accelerating?
- Larrikin 1y ago
  Why does anyone need to invest at all? Why can't Jack Dorsey just run it instead of needing it be a hockey stick start up?
  - tptacek 1y ago
    See, that's a good question, but it has an answer: first, they took a priced round, and those investors will need to see a return, and second, when the funding runs out, someone is going to have to put more money in --- substantially more money --- to keep the lights on. What's probably true is that if they found a stable source of revenue they wouldn't have to answer these kinds of questions. But this is just back to my original point, of "I don't see how this is going to work", because I don't see how they're going to do that. I'd be happy if someone jumped in and set me straight with a clear and plausible plan. To me, though, from the information I've seen, it looks like the premise here is that they're going to raise again, and to do that they're going to need to demonstrate accelerating growth, which they starkly do not have right now.
    - jeremie 1y ago
      I’m one of the (independent) board members of Bluesky and I can say with confidence that I don’t have any of these concerns, everyone involved is deeply aligned to the PBC’s purpose of “To develop and drive large-scale adoption of technologies for open and decentralized public conversation.”
      - tptacek 1y ago
        None of the concerns I've raised are about alignment. I'm not concerned for Bluesky's investors. I'm concerned about the long-term viability of the platform given its adoption curve and its financing. If it helps, nothing I'm saying has anything to do with whether ATProto will succeed. ATProto could succeed (and fulfill one possible overarching goal of the PBC) and Bluesky would still not be a long-term viable forum for scientific communication (because it will stop existing in its current form).
  - sumeno 1y ago
    Jack Dorsey is in no way involved with bsky today. In fact he hates it
  - CodeArtisan 1y ago
    Dorsey left may 2024: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/07/jack-dorsey-quits-bluesky-board-urges-users-stay-elon-musk-x-twitter https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/07/j...
- therealmccoyboy 1y ago
  Every social network has grown in fits and starts. Bluesky could be doing better but it’s already doing very well and is sustainable and future proof in many ways.
- whatshisface 1y ago
  That curve has clearly leveled out, and some of them look like they've increased slightly...
- SteveJS 1y ago
  I zoomed out. It looks like this: "Usage has absolutely declined from peak switching periods where inevitibly some users won't stick around, but that's to be expected" That just isn't a "sharp decline" no matter how much you seem to want to repeat those words.
  - tptacek 1y ago
    Last year in November they had around 2.7MM likers. Today it's 1.2MM. Last year in November they had around 1.3MM posters. Today, 0.65MM. Followers: 3MM, to 0.4MM today.
    - philistine 1y ago
      How does it compare to other social networks like Twitter? Can't compare because they don't offer granular data this detailed? That tells you something.
      - tptacek 1y ago
        That doesn't matter! In fact, Twitter doing worse while Bluesky usage is dropping probably makes them significantly less investable. I'm not rooting for them to fail. I use Bluesky. I find Twitter's ownership odious and the platform significantly worse than it was 4 years ago. But if we're talking about scientific communicators talking about where the future of scientific communication is going to happen, it is relevant whether Bluesky has a long-term future. There's another non-Twitter social network that doesn't operate under this funding pressure!
    - SteveJS 1y ago
      Those are Jaz’s daily unique action counts (flows) from the Bluesky firehose; they’re anchored to the Nov ’24 spike, so the ‘decline’ is post-surge reversion. Meanwhile the user stock kept rising (~39M). A presidential election spike is the baseline for tracking growth in a social media platform??
      - JimDabell 1y ago
- BearOso 1y ago
  What investors? It isn't a public company, and it's registered as a benefit corporation. Anybody who gives them money should have a clue that its priority is not shareholder returns.
  - tptacek 1y ago
    Your argument here reduces to "wealthy donors will fund it out of charity", which is not I think a claim Bluesky itself is making.
    - BearOso 1y ago
      My argument is any investors should already know what they're getting into.
      - tptacek 1y ago
        I'm not expressing a concern for the existing investors!
Manuel_D 1y ago
https://imgur.com/a/GLkSLkY https://imgur.com/a/GLkSLkY It looks like Bluesky is going to be shedding active for the near future, probably settling around a million users active per day.
gusfoo 1y ago
> Sharply declining usage? I don't see the stats to back that up on https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats Odd. Here's another BlueSky stats page, and almost every metric is in the red. https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-user-growth?t=3m https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-user-growth?t=3m

tptacek 1y ago

Yeah, I think what you needed to do here is zoom out. That's a sharply declining chart. I understand that as a Bluesky user the peak and dropoff doesn't hurt the experience. But investors are going to put money in with the expectation of a return and what they're going to look at are the derivatives of the adoption curve: how quickly is it gaining users, and is adoption accelerating?

Larrikin 1y ago
Why does anyone need to invest at all? Why can't Jack Dorsey just run it instead of needing it be a hockey stick start up?
- tptacek 1y ago
  See, that's a good question, but it has an answer: first, they took a priced round, and those investors will need to see a return, and second, when the funding runs out, someone is going to have to put more money in --- substantially more money --- to keep the lights on. What's probably true is that if they found a stable source of revenue they wouldn't have to answer these kinds of questions. But this is just back to my original point, of "I don't see how this is going to work", because I don't see how they're going to do that. I'd be happy if someone jumped in and set me straight with a clear and plausible plan. To me, though, from the information I've seen, it looks like the premise here is that they're going to raise again, and to do that they're going to need to demonstrate accelerating growth, which they starkly do not have right now.
  - jeremie 1y ago
    I’m one of the (independent) board members of Bluesky and I can say with confidence that I don’t have any of these concerns, everyone involved is deeply aligned to the PBC’s purpose of “To develop and drive large-scale adoption of technologies for open and decentralized public conversation.”
    - tptacek 1y ago
      None of the concerns I've raised are about alignment. I'm not concerned for Bluesky's investors. I'm concerned about the long-term viability of the platform given its adoption curve and its financing. If it helps, nothing I'm saying has anything to do with whether ATProto will succeed. ATProto could succeed (and fulfill one possible overarching goal of the PBC) and Bluesky would still not be a long-term viable forum for scientific communication (because it will stop existing in its current form).
- sumeno 1y ago
  Jack Dorsey is in no way involved with bsky today. In fact he hates it
- CodeArtisan 1y ago
  Dorsey left may 2024: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/07/jack-dorsey-quits-bluesky-board-urges-users-stay-elon-musk-x-twitter https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/may/07/j...
therealmccoyboy 1y ago
Every social network has grown in fits and starts. Bluesky could be doing better but it’s already doing very well and is sustainable and future proof in many ways.
whatshisface 1y ago
That curve has clearly leveled out, and some of them look like they've increased slightly...
SteveJS 1y ago
I zoomed out. It looks like this: "Usage has absolutely declined from peak switching periods where inevitibly some users won't stick around, but that's to be expected" That just isn't a "sharp decline" no matter how much you seem to want to repeat those words.
- tptacek 1y ago
  Last year in November they had around 2.7MM likers. Today it's 1.2MM. Last year in November they had around 1.3MM posters. Today, 0.65MM. Followers: 3MM, to 0.4MM today.
  - philistine 1y ago
    How does it compare to other social networks like Twitter? Can't compare because they don't offer granular data this detailed? That tells you something.
    - tptacek 1y ago
      That doesn't matter! In fact, Twitter doing worse while Bluesky usage is dropping probably makes them significantly less investable. I'm not rooting for them to fail. I use Bluesky. I find Twitter's ownership odious and the platform significantly worse than it was 4 years ago. But if we're talking about scientific communicators talking about where the future of scientific communication is going to happen, it is relevant whether Bluesky has a long-term future. There's another non-Twitter social network that doesn't operate under this funding pressure!
  - SteveJS 1y ago
    Those are Jaz’s daily unique action counts (flows) from the Bluesky firehose; they’re anchored to the Nov ’24 spike, so the ‘decline’ is post-surge reversion. Meanwhile the user stock kept rising (~39M). A presidential election spike is the baseline for tracking growth in a social media platform??
    - JimDabell 1y ago
BearOso 1y ago
What investors? It isn't a public company, and it's registered as a benefit corporation. Anybody who gives them money should have a clue that its priority is not shareholder returns.
- tptacek 1y ago
  Your argument here reduces to "wealthy donors will fund it out of charity", which is not I think a claim Bluesky itself is making.
  - BearOso 1y ago
    My argument is any investors should already know what they're getting into.
    - tptacek 1y ago
      I'm not expressing a concern for the existing investors!

Manuel_D 1y ago

https://imgur.com/a/GLkSLkY https://imgur.com/a/GLkSLkY It looks like Bluesky is going to be shedding active for the near future, probably settling around a million users active per day.

gusfoo 1y ago

> Sharply declining usage? I don't see the stats to back that up on https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats Odd. Here's another BlueSky stats page, and almost every metric is in the red. https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-user-growth?t=3m https://bluefacts.app/bluesky-user-growth?t=3m