2 ms·
People can laugh at Gary Marcus all they want, but there’s one aspect that people don’t understand. If you have a high conviction belief that is countervailing
by aabhay 1y ago
People can laugh at Gary Marcus all they want, but there’s one aspect that people don’t understand.
If you have a high conviction belief that is countervailing to the mainstream, you suffer a great deal. Even the most average conversation with a “mainstream believer” can turn into a judgment fest. Sometimes people stop talking to you mid-conversation. Investors quietly remove you from their lead lists. Candidates watch your talks and go dark on you. People with no technical expertise lecture at you.
Yet, inevitably, a fraction of such people carry forward. They don’t shut up. And they are the spoon that stirs the pot of science.
It’s totally normal and inevitable that people start to take victory laps at even the smallest indication in such situations. It doesn’t mean they’re right. It is just not something worth criticizing.
- andy99 1y agoNo. There is a difference between being a contrarian who is making a bet and acting on their different viewpoint, and someone who is simply a debbie downer and wants to say something negative all the time with no skin in the game. Marcus is the latter. It's easy to be a faux contrarian that just always says we're in a bubble or x is overhyped. Everyone knows that, it's the nature of markets and not an insight. The only value is having some actual insight into where and how things stop and where there is some upside. Otherwise you're just a jealous loser.