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I find it counter intuitive that the frequency of cheating matters. It's not something that happens randomly, people choose to. And if the #2 in the world decid

I find it counter intuitive that the frequency of cheating matters. It's not something that happens randomly, people choose to. And if the #2 in the world decides to cheat it may be for different reasons than other players. But, of course he doesn't. He streams all his games and gives constant stream of consciousness commentary. If you can explain your top level moves live with seconds per move, you aren't cheating.

lblume 1y ago
> It's not something that happens randomly, people choose to. In Bayesian analysis, probability does not refer to the long-term frequency but instead to the subjective credence given to the event. Otherwise the probability of any one-off event would be undefinable. Therefore it follows that you need to have a prior over possible hypothesis in order to update your beliefs systematically according to the laws of probability theory. If it were known that Hikaru had cheated in the past, but typically does not, we might use a different prior (e.g. a Laplacian prior in this case); if we knew cheating to be dependent on some other measurable variable (e.g. the emotional state of the player), we would incorporate this into our evidence.