7 ms·

I'm hearing you say we should have self-driving buses... which is feasible since their route is fixed.

by esafak 1y ago

kjkjadksj 1y ago
Bus driver also does things like trigger ramp for handicapped people, strap in wheelchairs securely, answer questions about the route, and security surveillance.
- bluGill 1y ago
  None of those should be needed. Get more people riding and they take care of security. wheelchairs are hard - but the driver strapping them in is robbing everyone else of their valuable time so we need a better soultion anyway
  - Symbiote 1y ago
    Every bus in Copenhagen has a button next to the door to lower the wheelchair ramp, but I have never seen anyone use it. I've never seen a wheelchair on a bus. The metro and suburban trains have level boarding (the platform is at exactly the same level as the floor of the train so it's very easy for a wheelchair user to wheel themselves in). I've still only seen wheelchairs users on these trains once or twice. I suspect wheelchair users prefer to call the disability taxi service. It's free for wheelchair users and blind people [1]. I don't know if this service is more or less expensive to provide than adapting buses and trains, but it is probably easier for everyone. [1, in Danish] https://www.moviatrafik.dk/flexkunde/flexhandicap https://www.moviatrafik.dk/flexkunde/flexhandicap
    - rootusrootus 1y ago
      That's relatively similar to how my local (US) municipality handles disabled passengers. All of the big infrastructure supports wheelchairs, but it is only occasionally used. Disabled people are served by mini-buses which operate point-to-point and charge them the same fare they'd pay for the big bus.
    - pessimizer 1y ago
      Wheelchairs, sometimes multiple, are on Chicago buses all the time. Also rolling grocery trolleys, walkers (especially for dialysis patients where they have a medical functions) and also old people whose legs don't work so good and need the bus lowered.
    - cogman10 1y ago
      This honestly makes a lot of sense, particularly because the number of people that need wheelchairs is so much smaller than the general population. I visit hospitals pretty frequently and while it's not never that I see someone in a wheelchair, it's not every day and it's definitely not a majority of the visitors. When I'm out and about in public, I basically never see wheelchair users. It makes sense to simply have a taxi service instead. Far more convenient for the wheelchair user and you don't need to retrofit every bus with wheelchair access.
  - xjlin0 1y ago
    Taking a look at NYC or SF bus, are you sure that more riders solve security issues?
    - cogman10 1y ago
      Yes, this is simply a well known fact. You can look up the NYPD report on crime for the month of june the total amount of reported crime was 427 for all forms of transport (metro, bus, etc). 3.6 million people use public transport in NYC daily. No matter where you are, you'll never drive that number to 0. But if you wanted to make it better then you'd stop positioning the police to catch turnstile jumpers and you start positioning police to ride public transport during low ridership times to prevent incident.
  - johnnyanmac 1y ago
    >the driver strapping them in is robbing everyone else of their valuable time Oh so we're now fine putting more of our tax dollars into specialized disability services? If our time is more valuable, this is a steal.
    - hamandcheese 1y ago
      It's paying either way. I'd rather pay with money.
      - johnnyanmac 1y ago
        I'm the same. When brought up for policy, the results tend to be very disappointing, though.
- cyberax 1y ago
  You can have a fleet of specialized self-driving taxis for people with disabilities. They can have articulated ramps or other special accommodations.
  - jodrellblank 1y ago
    You could have trams and trains with level boarding which helps people who don't have disabilities too, costs less, takes less space in the city, makes less noise, needs less maintenance, and moves more people.
    - cyberax 1y ago
      Except that they don't cost less. And are more inconvenient, especially if you can't move a lot. And they're slower, and will require you to make a transfer. And don't run at night. But otherwise,yeah. Sure.
      - zbentley 1y ago
        Slower? In top speed maybe, but not in time-to-destination (or, given congested streets, average speed). Trains “require” you to make a transfer? Depends on your city, I guess; many train systems are hub-and-spoke-like enough (and dense enough) that common commutes don’t require any transfers. Also, I’m curious whether bus-centric mass transit requires more or fewer transfers than train-centric or hybrid.
        cyberax 1y ago
        > Slower? In top speed maybe, but not in time-to-destination (or, given congested streets, average speed). Yep. Transit is ALWAYS slower on average compared to cars. It is faster only in a very narrow set of circumstances. Try an experiment: drop 10 random points inside a city, and plot routes between them for cars and transit (you can use Google Maps API). Transit will be on average 2-3 times slower, even in the rush hour.
        1y ago
cyberax 1y ago
Once you have self-driving, you don't _need_ buses. Large buses are fundamentally inefficient, they can never be made competitive compared to cars. And the main source of inefficiency is the number of stops and fixed routes. You can easily solve all the transportation problems with mild car-pooling. Switching buses and personal cars to something like 8-person minibuses will result in less congestion and about 2-3 times faster commutes than the status quo. Only large dense hellscapes like Manhattan will be an exception.
- rootusrootus 1y ago
  Yeah I remember once doing the math, and it takes a relatively high level of ridership before a bus (or train) reaches the per-passenger efficiency of something like a Civic Hybrid carrying three passengers. We have a number of routes in my local area that I think could be more quickly and economically served by replacing the full size bus with something much smaller.
  - bluGill 1y ago
    general rule of thumb is 5 passangers for a but to break even. Now a civic is a smaller car so it will be better, and you specified 3 passanges whes single occupant is by far more likely - even with those unrealistic assumption a typical bus will do well overall.
    - rootusrootus 1y ago
      I don't disagree, the typical use case isn't great for the car, this was just a thought experiment for what it would look like to use an efficient, reliable passenger car as an alternative to buses.
    - cyberax 1y ago
      > general rule of thumb is 5 passangers for a but to break even. "Break even" how? A bus has a road footprint of about 15 cars (it's more than the physical bus length because it also occupies the road during stops and is less maneuverable). 15 cars have the occupancy of about 25 people. > even with those unrealistic assumption a typical bus will do well overall. Nope. Buses absolutely fail in efficiency. They pollute WAY more than cars, and they have fundamental limitations like the frequency.
wat10000 1y ago
And since the route is fixed, maybe we could install guides rather than needing a complicated steering mechanism. Then replace inefficient tires with much more efficient metal wheels rolling on the guides....
- johnnyanmac 1y ago
  And with that, we can scale it up and have multiple chains of these buses used for mass transport. Heck, in some fantasy land we can really speed up the bus and have it trek across the the continent in a few hours!
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
- SoftTalker 1y ago
  And then we need to make a change to the route.... oops.
  - phinnaeus 1y ago
    No we don’t. Put another one in if need arises.
  - oblio 1y ago
    Predictability has value. For example because "we need to make a change to the route" type people are around, your bus line can be taken away from you. Because tracks aren't moved as easily, people rely on them, plan around them and you get things like increased property values because (and overall higher quality of life, especially around tram lines) due to that.
whimsicalism 1y ago
e: after looking at the numbers again, i was wrong.
- Zagreus2142 1y ago
  The market clearing wage only applies in economic textbooks, in a perfectly competitive market with balanced supply and demand. The US public transportation sector has major supply/demand imbalances and is a regulated market. Also the median weekly wage in the US is currently $1196 a week (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf) Seattle is currently paying bus drivers $31.39 an hour, 40x = $1256 (https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/metro/about/careers/drive-for-metro https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/metro/about/careers/drive-for...). And I'm sure the pay is less in less affluent/dense US cities. It's not exactly apples to apples because the bls figure is nationwide and doesn't include healthcare benefits, and king county metro may have better than average healthcare, but at least ballparking this: No, public bus drivers are not paid "well above" the median wage Edit: I found this listing on indeed for greyhound bus drivers (the closest comparison I could think of in the private sector) and starting rate is $28-$31 in Seattle (https://www.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=2516c81006044ec8 https://www.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=2516c81006044ec8).
  - whimsicalism 1y ago
    i think main thrust, you are right that the numbers are less extreme than i had recalled. SF (which i imagine is the top end) is $31-$47 range or so. i see lower ($25) for greyhound than you do, but frankly that seems unreasonably low so i think “salary.com” is not giving me solid numbers there.
    - Zagreus2142 1y ago
      It's not starting $31-$47 it's $31 starting and as you build seniority and tenure you can get up to $47. https://careers.sf.gov/classifications/?classCode=9163&setId=SFMTA#historic https://careers.sf.gov/classifications/?classCode=9163&setId... Indeed shows an active listing in SF for Greyhound for the same amount as Seattle. Greyhound appears to have a single national salary scrolling through different cities. https://www.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=ad2e68b167688669 https://www.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=ad2e68b167688669
burkaman 1y ago
It is absolutely not feasible (yet), most of the job of the bus driver is knowing when to break the "rules", because someone is parked in the bus stop, or traffic is backed up so it make sense to stop a bit before the stop to let people off, or when to stop for longer than usual because someone needs to use the bike rack on the front, or when to use the bus kneeling feature because someone with mobility issues needs to get on or off, or when to skip a stop because your bus is too full and there's another right behind you, etc. This is ignoring payment issues (hopefully it would be free anyway), answering riders' questions, being nice and letting someone off halfway between stops because it's 2am and pouring and they're the only one on the bus, and so on. I guess the general theme is that unlike Waymo where everything is ordered and planned out ahead of time and the car just needs to go from A to B, a self-driving bus will need to be constantly updating its plan in real time based on the conditions outside and what people on the bus need. It's not like a train where it can always stop in the exact same place and open the doors for a pre-defined amount of time. It's obviously not impossible, but bus driving is much more complex than taxi driving despite the predictable route.
- nenenejej 1y ago
  You could help set up the self driving bus for success. Make bus stops a clearway for other vehicles. In other words, if you stop there you get fined and possibly towed. Bus dashcam can help here. The bike rack is an excellent feature where US beats my country. Well done. I think you'd need a button to ask for more time. And a Tokyo-like culture of respect for this all to work.
  - angmarsbane 1y ago
    If/when we get to self-driving buses I'd like to see them with a security guard on board or someone like the train ticket guy. I wouldn't feel comfortable as a woman getting on driver-less bus with strangers without a bus representative there too. With existing buses, I've had bus drivers stop the bus and kick someone off who was creating a dangerous situation and I feel even just the presence of a bus driver kept some people's behavior in check.
  - burkaman 1y ago
dzhiurgis 1y ago
Or buy 10 Teslas for the same price and offer superior service.
- aidenn0 1y ago
  That's 10x the cost of drivers though.
- rsynnott 1y ago
  The main cost of running a bus system is drivers, not buses. So that would be horribly expensive. Also... how small are you imagining buses are? Standard buses here have a capacity of around a hundred people. If you broke them out into cars there simply wouldn't be space on the roads.
- bluGill 1y ago
  That is worse service. A tesla has low capacity and so cannot handle multiple groups randomly showing up at the same time. The point of great transit is you don't think, the system is ready for you.
rsynnott 1y ago
Driving a city bus is much, much, _much_ harder than driving a car. Shuttle bus in an airport or something, sure, maybe. But (with the exception of BRT systems with mostly/all segregated routes), I'd expect city buses to be about the most difficult form of transport to automate.

I'm hearing you say we should have self-driving buses... which is feasible since their route is fixed.

by esafak 1y ago

I'm hearing you say we should have self-driving buses... which is feasible since their route is fixed.

Bus driver also does things like trigger ramp for handicapped people, strap in wheelchairs securely, answer questions about the route, and security surveillance.

bluGill 1y ago
None of those should be needed. Get more people riding and they take care of security. wheelchairs are hard - but the driver strapping them in is robbing everyone else of their valuable time so we need a better soultion anyway
- Symbiote 1y ago
  Every bus in Copenhagen has a button next to the door to lower the wheelchair ramp, but I have never seen anyone use it. I've never seen a wheelchair on a bus. The metro and suburban trains have level boarding (the platform is at exactly the same level as the floor of the train so it's very easy for a wheelchair user to wheel themselves in). I've still only seen wheelchairs users on these trains once or twice. I suspect wheelchair users prefer to call the disability taxi service. It's free for wheelchair users and blind people [1]. I don't know if this service is more or less expensive to provide than adapting buses and trains, but it is probably easier for everyone. [1, in Danish] https://www.moviatrafik.dk/flexkunde/flexhandicap https://www.moviatrafik.dk/flexkunde/flexhandicap
  - rootusrootus 1y ago
    That's relatively similar to how my local (US) municipality handles disabled passengers. All of the big infrastructure supports wheelchairs, but it is only occasionally used. Disabled people are served by mini-buses which operate point-to-point and charge them the same fare they'd pay for the big bus.
  - pessimizer 1y ago
    Wheelchairs, sometimes multiple, are on Chicago buses all the time. Also rolling grocery trolleys, walkers (especially for dialysis patients where they have a medical functions) and also old people whose legs don't work so good and need the bus lowered.
  - cogman10 1y ago
    This honestly makes a lot of sense, particularly because the number of people that need wheelchairs is so much smaller than the general population. I visit hospitals pretty frequently and while it's not never that I see someone in a wheelchair, it's not every day and it's definitely not a majority of the visitors. When I'm out and about in public, I basically never see wheelchair users. It makes sense to simply have a taxi service instead. Far more convenient for the wheelchair user and you don't need to retrofit every bus with wheelchair access.
- xjlin0 1y ago
  Taking a look at NYC or SF bus, are you sure that more riders solve security issues?
  - cogman10 1y ago
    Yes, this is simply a well known fact. You can look up the NYPD report on crime for the month of june the total amount of reported crime was 427 for all forms of transport (metro, bus, etc). 3.6 million people use public transport in NYC daily. No matter where you are, you'll never drive that number to 0. But if you wanted to make it better then you'd stop positioning the police to catch turnstile jumpers and you start positioning police to ride public transport during low ridership times to prevent incident.
- johnnyanmac 1y ago
  >the driver strapping them in is robbing everyone else of their valuable time Oh so we're now fine putting more of our tax dollars into specialized disability services? If our time is more valuable, this is a steal.
  - hamandcheese 1y ago
    It's paying either way. I'd rather pay with money.
    - johnnyanmac 1y ago
      I'm the same. When brought up for policy, the results tend to be very disappointing, though.
cyberax 1y ago
You can have a fleet of specialized self-driving taxis for people with disabilities. They can have articulated ramps or other special accommodations.
- jodrellblank 1y ago
  You could have trams and trains with level boarding which helps people who don't have disabilities too, costs less, takes less space in the city, makes less noise, needs less maintenance, and moves more people.
  - cyberax 1y ago
    Except that they don't cost less. And are more inconvenient, especially if you can't move a lot. And they're slower, and will require you to make a transfer. And don't run at night. But otherwise,yeah. Sure.
    - zbentley 1y ago
      Slower? In top speed maybe, but not in time-to-destination (or, given congested streets, average speed). Trains “require” you to make a transfer? Depends on your city, I guess; many train systems are hub-and-spoke-like enough (and dense enough) that common commutes don’t require any transfers. Also, I’m curious whether bus-centric mass transit requires more or fewer transfers than train-centric or hybrid.
      - cyberax 1y ago
        > Slower? In top speed maybe, but not in time-to-destination (or, given congested streets, average speed). Yep. Transit is ALWAYS slower on average compared to cars. It is faster only in a very narrow set of circumstances. Try an experiment: drop 10 random points inside a city, and plot routes between them for cars and transit (you can use Google Maps API). Transit will be on average 2-3 times slower, even in the rush hour.
        1y ago

cyberax 1y ago

Once you have self-driving, you don't _need_ buses. Large buses are fundamentally inefficient, they can never be made competitive compared to cars. And the main source of inefficiency is the number of stops and fixed routes. You can easily solve all the transportation problems with mild car-pooling. Switching buses and personal cars to something like 8-person minibuses will result in less congestion and about 2-3 times faster commutes than the status quo. Only large dense hellscapes like Manhattan will be an exception.

rootusrootus 1y ago
Yeah I remember once doing the math, and it takes a relatively high level of ridership before a bus (or train) reaches the per-passenger efficiency of something like a Civic Hybrid carrying three passengers. We have a number of routes in my local area that I think could be more quickly and economically served by replacing the full size bus with something much smaller.
- bluGill 1y ago
  general rule of thumb is 5 passangers for a but to break even. Now a civic is a smaller car so it will be better, and you specified 3 passanges whes single occupant is by far more likely - even with those unrealistic assumption a typical bus will do well overall.
  - rootusrootus 1y ago
    I don't disagree, the typical use case isn't great for the car, this was just a thought experiment for what it would look like to use an efficient, reliable passenger car as an alternative to buses.
  - cyberax 1y ago
    > general rule of thumb is 5 passangers for a but to break even. "Break even" how? A bus has a road footprint of about 15 cars (it's more than the physical bus length because it also occupies the road during stops and is less maneuverable). 15 cars have the occupancy of about 25 people. > even with those unrealistic assumption a typical bus will do well overall. Nope. Buses absolutely fail in efficiency. They pollute WAY more than cars, and they have fundamental limitations like the frequency.

wat10000 1y ago

And since the route is fixed, maybe we could install guides rather than needing a complicated steering mechanism. Then replace inefficient tires with much more efficient metal wheels rolling on the guides....

johnnyanmac 1y ago
And with that, we can scale it up and have multiple chains of these buses used for mass transport. Heck, in some fantasy land we can really speed up the bus and have it trek across the the continent in a few hours!
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
SoftTalker 1y ago
And then we need to make a change to the route.... oops.
- phinnaeus 1y ago
  No we don’t. Put another one in if need arises.
- oblio 1y ago
  Predictability has value. For example because "we need to make a change to the route" type people are around, your bus line can be taken away from you. Because tracks aren't moved as easily, people rely on them, plan around them and you get things like increased property values because (and overall higher quality of life, especially around tram lines) due to that.

whimsicalism 1y ago

e: after looking at the numbers again, i was wrong.

Zagreus2142 1y ago
The market clearing wage only applies in economic textbooks, in a perfectly competitive market with balanced supply and demand. The US public transportation sector has major supply/demand imbalances and is a regulated market. Also the median weekly wage in the US is currently $1196 a week (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/wkyeng.pdf) Seattle is currently paying bus drivers $31.39 an hour, 40x = $1256 (https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/metro/about/careers/drive-for-metro https://kingcounty.gov/en/dept/metro/about/careers/drive-for...). And I'm sure the pay is less in less affluent/dense US cities. It's not exactly apples to apples because the bls figure is nationwide and doesn't include healthcare benefits, and king county metro may have better than average healthcare, but at least ballparking this: No, public bus drivers are not paid "well above" the median wage Edit: I found this listing on indeed for greyhound bus drivers (the closest comparison I could think of in the private sector) and starting rate is $28-$31 in Seattle (https://www.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=2516c81006044ec8 https://www.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=2516c81006044ec8).
- whimsicalism 1y ago
  i think main thrust, you are right that the numbers are less extreme than i had recalled. SF (which i imagine is the top end) is $31-$47 range or so. i see lower ($25) for greyhound than you do, but frankly that seems unreasonably low so i think “salary.com” is not giving me solid numbers there.
  - Zagreus2142 1y ago
    It's not starting $31-$47 it's $31 starting and as you build seniority and tenure you can get up to $47. https://careers.sf.gov/classifications/?classCode=9163&setId=SFMTA#historic https://careers.sf.gov/classifications/?classCode=9163&setId... Indeed shows an active listing in SF for Greyhound for the same amount as Seattle. Greyhound appears to have a single national salary scrolling through different cities. https://www.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=ad2e68b167688669 https://www.indeed.com/m/viewjob?jk=ad2e68b167688669

burkaman 1y ago

It is absolutely not feasible (yet), most of the job of the bus driver is knowing when to break the "rules", because someone is parked in the bus stop, or traffic is backed up so it make sense to stop a bit before the stop to let people off, or when to stop for longer than usual because someone needs to use the bike rack on the front, or when to use the bus kneeling feature because someone with mobility issues needs to get on or off, or when to skip a stop because your bus is too full and there's another right behind you, etc. This is ignoring payment issues (hopefully it would be free anyway), answering riders' questions, being nice and letting someone off halfway between stops because it's 2am and pouring and they're the only one on the bus, and so on. I guess the general theme is that unlike Waymo where everything is ordered and planned out ahead of time and the car just needs to go from A to B, a self-driving bus will need to be constantly updating its plan in real time based on the conditions outside and what people on the bus need. It's not like a train where it can always stop in the exact same place and open the doors for a pre-defined amount of time. It's obviously not impossible, but bus driving is much more complex than taxi driving despite the predictable route.

nenenejej 1y ago
You could help set up the self driving bus for success. Make bus stops a clearway for other vehicles. In other words, if you stop there you get fined and possibly towed. Bus dashcam can help here. The bike rack is an excellent feature where US beats my country. Well done. I think you'd need a button to ask for more time. And a Tokyo-like culture of respect for this all to work.
- angmarsbane 1y ago
  If/when we get to self-driving buses I'd like to see them with a security guard on board or someone like the train ticket guy. I wouldn't feel comfortable as a woman getting on driver-less bus with strangers without a bus representative there too. With existing buses, I've had bus drivers stop the bus and kick someone off who was creating a dangerous situation and I feel even just the presence of a bus driver kept some people's behavior in check.
- burkaman 1y ago

dzhiurgis 1y ago

Or buy 10 Teslas for the same price and offer superior service.

aidenn0 1y ago
That's 10x the cost of drivers though.
rsynnott 1y ago
The main cost of running a bus system is drivers, not buses. So that would be horribly expensive. Also... how small are you imagining buses are? Standard buses here have a capacity of around a hundred people. If you broke them out into cars there simply wouldn't be space on the roads.
bluGill 1y ago
That is worse service. A tesla has low capacity and so cannot handle multiple groups randomly showing up at the same time. The point of great transit is you don't think, the system is ready for you.

rsynnott 1y ago

Driving a city bus is much, much, _much_ harder than driving a car. Shuttle bus in an airport or something, sure, maybe. But (with the exception of BRT systems with mostly/all segregated routes), I'd expect city buses to be about the most difficult form of transport to automate.