While it is good to see some Bayesian statistics in use, I wouldn't in this case put so much emphasis on an exact calculated probability that he did or din not

While it is good to see some Bayesian statistics in use, I wouldn't in this case put so much emphasis on an exact calculated probability that he did or din not cheat, the prior in this case is simply too wishy-washy for that. The sound conclusion is that this is not evidence of cheating, but it is not evidence of the contrary either.