4 ms·

AI is a bubble, just admit it

If AI revenue by 2030 needs to be more than the combined 2024 revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia just to recoup the costs of depreciation on the chips then it's a bubble.

fullshark 1y ago
Good luck timing the burst, everything is a bubble
- ImPrajyoth 1y ago
  Earth is?
  - deleted 1y ago
    [deleted]
  - foobarbaz33 1y ago
    Possibly yes. Artificially kept going by the Sun and Earth's own molten core. Once those go out out it's game over for earth.
    - delichon 1y ago
      Earth appears to be generating at least one species that is capable of atomic matter to energy conversion. Maybe it is planning ahead.
      - csomar 1y ago
        That atomic matter origin is the Sun though. So all is propped up by the Sun at the end.
  - Jensson 1y ago
    Earth is a lava bubble with a thin film of cool earth on top. A relatively small meteor would pop it.
- WorldPeas 1y ago
  Check out page 6 chart 1 "US real GDP growth contribution from tech capex" https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/fair-shakes-amv.pdf https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/ins...
cranberryturkey 1y ago
A bubble much like the dotcom bubble. but the internet didn't go away...it was flourishing 3 years later.
- zerosizedweasle 1y ago
  Yeah but those companies went bankrupt.
  - cranberryturkey 1y ago
    True...the ones that raised $2M with just a domain name and vaporware. THat's notwhat I'm seeing in AI right now
    - zerosizedweasle 1y ago
      No, WorldCom and 360Networks were fiber companies. A lot of internet infrastructure companies went under.
      - cranberryturkey 1y ago
        Yes, but my point is the fundamental tech didn't disappear. Those companies failed but thousands have been flourishing ever since.
        zerosizedweasle 1y ago
        I get your point. I'm not talking about AI in the future of the economy after the bubble burst settles. Or about the technology in the future. I'm talking about the cold hard economic calculus / numbers staring us near term in the face.
        andsoitis 1y ago
        I think the issue is your framing. You say “AI is a bubble…”, when I think you mean more something like “the gold rush around AI is a bubble…”
leakycap 1y ago
Forecasting the global AI market revenue in 2030 when we're only about 1,000 days since ChatGPT launched seems unlikely to be accurate
- zerosizedweasle 1y ago
  Yeah but that's where the numbers need to be to make the current spending add up.
  - leakycap 1y ago
    Only if you think the market is not significantly shifting. Saying this now is like saying how much dirt will be needed to fill in a sinkhole while it's still caving inwards.
farseer 1y ago
Chips are unlike cars and there is very little wear and tear. If depreciation of Chips and subsequent losses is your criteria of how this bubble will burst, you may be in for a rude awakening. With Moor's law already finished, the Chips can be used for at least a decade or more even with lower efficiency and more power usage.
- raw_anon_1111 1y ago
  The failure rate of GPUs is quite high. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/datacenter-gpu-service-life-can-be-surprisingly-short-only-one-to-three-years-is-expected-according-to-unnamed-google-architect https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/datacenter-g...
  - farseer 1y ago
    >>We could not verify the name of the person who describes themselves as 'GenAI principal architect at Alphabet' and therefore we cannot 100% trust their claims. Here is a counter claim (not study): https://cyfuture.cloud/kb/gpu/what-is-the-failure-rate-of-the-h100-gpu https://cyfuture.cloud/kb/gpu/what-is-the-failure-rate-of-th...
    - raw_anon_1111 1y ago
      Why does that read like AI slop? And who is cyfuture?
gooodvibes 1y ago
Sure, some companies and products might be overvalued - so what? Why do some people insist on screaming about this from the rooftops?
seydor 1y ago
What if we admit it and also approve it? Stock pumping is this generation s real estate
gethly 1y ago
Yes it is. Everyone knows it. We're just waiting for it to pop, that's all. Wait for China to refactor their DeepSeek v3 to run on Huawei chips. Then you'll see the US stock marker crash.
red-iron-pine 1y ago
lotta tech bros have a lot of money in it -- and those bros own online marketing they're never going to stop until it's dead and dusted.
ActorNightly 1y ago
The concept of a bubble doesn't exist anymore. In the past, investors were way more tuned to value investing. Now days, investors dgaf about value as much as hype. As long as they can generate hype, the money will flow. And everyone is bought into the hype. And really, overall its not really a bad thing, because money flowing = economic activity. The only downside is the focus of technological progress gets lost in the sauce, with a lot of companies thinking short term rather than actual persistent value.
- oldsklgdfth 1y ago
  > The concept of a bubble doesn't exist anymore. It is a reminder that economics is firmly based on behavior. Interesting to see how economics reflects on this period in time. > gets lost in the sauce Thanks you for referencing the contemporary rap philosopher Gucci Mane [0]. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0-F88c6Hrk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0-F88c6Hrk
- kerningije 1y ago
  People said we have outsmarted downturns just before every major downturn in the past century and a half. Boom and bust is how complex systems develop. The biosphere down to that slime mold mapping out food sources. It's always a pulse. Oh it makes for a bumpy ride for the monkeys? Yeah. It does. Will the monkey outsmart the physics of complexity? Unlikely.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
sebastienBuilds 1y ago
Every new technology creating opportunities and a overload of attention creates a bubble- however AI or Gen Intelligence through Language Models is giving us a tremendous amount of opportinities - A bubble so huge that it also contains many bubbles as well such as vibe coding and agents -
vismit2000 1y ago
It's not a bubble at technical level, although it is at financial level.
adrianwaj 1y ago
Aren't bigger GPUs increasingly being seen on phones? So I'd expect more local AI. And is this true? "Privacy is the real bottleneck for autonomous AI agents. Sapphire + ROFL looks like a solid answer: on-chain confidentiality for state and logic, off-chain trusted execution for computation." https://old.reddit.com/r/oasisnetwork/comments/1nqhi4p/is_the_combination_of_sapphire_and_rofl_the/ https://old.reddit.com/r/oasisnetwork/comments/1nqhi4p/is_th... What does crypto/blockchain have to do with AI?

If AI revenue by 2030 needs to be more than the combined 2024 revenue of Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Nvidia just to recoup the costs of depreciation on the chips then it's a bubble.

fullshark 1y ago

Good luck timing the burst, everything is a bubble

ImPrajyoth 1y ago
Earth is?
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- foobarbaz33 1y ago
  Possibly yes. Artificially kept going by the Sun and Earth's own molten core. Once those go out out it's game over for earth.
  - delichon 1y ago
    Earth appears to be generating at least one species that is capable of atomic matter to energy conversion. Maybe it is planning ahead.
    - csomar 1y ago
      That atomic matter origin is the Sun though. So all is propped up by the Sun at the end.
- Jensson 1y ago
  Earth is a lava bubble with a thin film of cool earth on top. A relatively small meteor would pop it.
WorldPeas 1y ago
Check out page 6 chart 1 "US real GDP growth contribution from tech capex" https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/fair-shakes-amv.pdf https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/ins...

cranberryturkey 1y ago

A bubble much like the dotcom bubble. but the internet didn't go away...it was flourishing 3 years later.

zerosizedweasle 1y ago
Yeah but those companies went bankrupt.
- cranberryturkey 1y ago
  True...the ones that raised $2M with just a domain name and vaporware. THat's notwhat I'm seeing in AI right now
  - zerosizedweasle 1y ago
    No, WorldCom and 360Networks were fiber companies. A lot of internet infrastructure companies went under.
    - cranberryturkey 1y ago
      Yes, but my point is the fundamental tech didn't disappear. Those companies failed but thousands have been flourishing ever since.
      - zerosizedweasle 1y ago
        I get your point. I'm not talking about AI in the future of the economy after the bubble burst settles. Or about the technology in the future. I'm talking about the cold hard economic calculus / numbers staring us near term in the face.
        andsoitis 1y ago
        I think the issue is your framing. You say “AI is a bubble…”, when I think you mean more something like “the gold rush around AI is a bubble…”

leakycap 1y ago

Forecasting the global AI market revenue in 2030 when we're only about 1,000 days since ChatGPT launched seems unlikely to be accurate

zerosizedweasle 1y ago
Yeah but that's where the numbers need to be to make the current spending add up.
- leakycap 1y ago
  Only if you think the market is not significantly shifting. Saying this now is like saying how much dirt will be needed to fill in a sinkhole while it's still caving inwards.

farseer 1y ago

Chips are unlike cars and there is very little wear and tear. If depreciation of Chips and subsequent losses is your criteria of how this bubble will burst, you may be in for a rude awakening. With Moor's law already finished, the Chips can be used for at least a decade or more even with lower efficiency and more power usage.

raw_anon_1111 1y ago
The failure rate of GPUs is quite high. https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/datacenter-gpu-service-life-can-be-surprisingly-short-only-one-to-three-years-is-expected-according-to-unnamed-google-architect https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/gpus/datacenter-g...
- farseer 1y ago
  >>We could not verify the name of the person who describes themselves as 'GenAI principal architect at Alphabet' and therefore we cannot 100% trust their claims. Here is a counter claim (not study): https://cyfuture.cloud/kb/gpu/what-is-the-failure-rate-of-the-h100-gpu https://cyfuture.cloud/kb/gpu/what-is-the-failure-rate-of-th...
  - raw_anon_1111 1y ago
    Why does that read like AI slop? And who is cyfuture?

gooodvibes 1y ago

Sure, some companies and products might be overvalued - so what? Why do some people insist on screaming about this from the rooftops?

seydor 1y ago

What if we admit it and also approve it? Stock pumping is this generation s real estate

gethly 1y ago

Yes it is. Everyone knows it. We're just waiting for it to pop, that's all. Wait for China to refactor their DeepSeek v3 to run on Huawei chips. Then you'll see the US stock marker crash.

red-iron-pine 1y ago

lotta tech bros have a lot of money in it -- and those bros own online marketing they're never going to stop until it's dead and dusted.

ActorNightly 1y ago

The concept of a bubble doesn't exist anymore. In the past, investors were way more tuned to value investing. Now days, investors dgaf about value as much as hype. As long as they can generate hype, the money will flow. And everyone is bought into the hype. And really, overall its not really a bad thing, because money flowing = economic activity. The only downside is the focus of technological progress gets lost in the sauce, with a lot of companies thinking short term rather than actual persistent value.

oldsklgdfth 1y ago
> The concept of a bubble doesn't exist anymore. It is a reminder that economics is firmly based on behavior. Interesting to see how economics reflects on this period in time. > gets lost in the sauce Thanks you for referencing the contemporary rap philosopher Gucci Mane [0]. [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0-F88c6Hrk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0-F88c6Hrk
kerningije 1y ago
People said we have outsmarted downturns just before every major downturn in the past century and a half. Boom and bust is how complex systems develop. The biosphere down to that slime mold mapping out food sources. It's always a pulse. Oh it makes for a bumpy ride for the monkeys? Yeah. It does. Will the monkey outsmart the physics of complexity? Unlikely.

deleted 1y ago

[deleted]

sebastienBuilds 1y ago

Every new technology creating opportunities and a overload of attention creates a bubble- however AI or Gen Intelligence through Language Models is giving us a tremendous amount of opportinities - A bubble so huge that it also contains many bubbles as well such as vibe coding and agents -

vismit2000 1y ago

It's not a bubble at technical level, although it is at financial level.

adrianwaj 1y ago

Aren't bigger GPUs increasingly being seen on phones? So I'd expect more local AI. And is this true? "Privacy is the real bottleneck for autonomous AI agents. Sapphire + ROFL looks like a solid answer: on-chain confidentiality for state and logic, off-chain trusted execution for computation." https://old.reddit.com/r/oasisnetwork/comments/1nqhi4p/is_the_combination_of_sapphire_and_rofl_the/ https://old.reddit.com/r/oasisnetwork/comments/1nqhi4p/is_th... What does crypto/blockchain have to do with AI?