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They threatened to & then followed through turning off Advanced Data Protection in the UK and removed the features, pointing to the pending laws in that region.

They threatened to & then followed through turning off Advanced Data Protection in the UK and removed the features, pointing to the pending laws in that region. Apple does not seem to have a reputation for bluffing.

thewebguyd 1y ago
Plus the EU is only like 7% of Apple's revenue, so I'm also in the camp of "I don't think they are bluffing." They'd still have UK & Norway, both of which have a higher share of iOS than other European nations. The US & China are much bigger, more important markets for Apple.
- troupo 1y ago
  > Plus the EU is only like 7% of Apple's revenue I doubt that. E.g. according to these charts, it's at least a quarter of profits: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/metrics/revenue-by-geography/ https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/metrics/revenue-by-geo... > so I'm also in the camp of "I don't think they are bluffing." How big is Russian market do you think? They didn't quit even that, and here we are pretending that Apple is going to quit EU. > They'd still have UK & Norway, both of which have a higher share of iOS than other European nations. UK and Norway is ~75 million people EU is 450 million people > The US & China are much bigger, more important markets for Apple. So, a wealthy US market with 350 million people is very important. Unlike the wealthy EU market with 450 million people which Apple can just easily abandon.
  - thewebguyd 1y ago
    You are correct, I had my numbers mixed up. EU is 7% of Apple's app store revenue specifically, not total revenue. Definitely makes it seem more likely they are bluffing in that case unless they plan on just selling dumb phones with no app store.
- makeitdouble 1y ago
  Apple completely leaving the EU means most of their network effect is gone. Any app targeting the EU is then required to go android first, and other markets will have a real life sample of what happens when Apple leaves, which won't be as catastrophic as Apple predicts. Sony and Sharp won't be crying a river if Japan does the same move for instance.
- 5555624 1y ago
  > Plus the EU is only like 7% of Apple's revenue It appears that Europe is 26% of Apple's revenue. (https://bullfincher.io/companies/apple/revenue-by-geography https://bullfincher.io/companies/apple/revenue-by-geography)
  - thewebguyd 1y ago
    You are correct, I had my numbers mixed up. EU is 7% of Apple's app store revenue specifically, not total revenue. Definitely makes it seem more likely they are bluffing in that case unless they plan on just selling dumb phones with no app store.
    - lordkrandel 1y ago
      This also shows how much we care about Apple's threats. Do you know how much is a developer salary in Europe? Ofc people use Lenovo stuff for half the price. We mostly don't care about Apple.
      - leakycap 1y ago
        Is the new anti-Apple storyline that the EU has no money? I don't think that's going to do well. Heard of Lenovo & Superfish or just don't care about that kind of thing when choosing a vendor?
        lordkrandel 1y ago
        My salary is a quarter than one in SF. It's the storyline of my life. Iphones would cost me a full month's salary, in Italy. Have fun in your dream world.
  - Aloisius 1y ago
    Apple's "Europe" segment includes European countries (including those not in the EU), India, the Middle East and Africa.
makeitdouble 1y ago
They might kill features for various reasons, but never left a market at this point I think ?
- leakycap 1y ago
  I thought Apple would leave Brazil or China before we'd see them leave the EU, but I don't think I can think of Apple bluffing in this way before, either
  - makeitdouble 1y ago
    We've seen them straight lie under investigation from the US gov and bullshit even the smallest request from court judgments. Those are not exactly the same thing, but Apple playing political games and emit the message they want without any reality behind it isn't new. They'll use whatever tool they have at hand if they see a strong enough chance to get away with it.
pier25 1y ago
Apple would be giving away +$100B every year to Samsung and others companies. What would the EU lose?
- leakycap 1y ago
  Apple would still sell a large number of devices, but not have to provide an extra year of EU warranty for free. Or any warranty, actually. Tariffs also become less of Apple's problem when the phones aren't being sold via official channels. The EU is not a growing market of consideration compared to China or India. > What would the EU lose? A very secure smartphone option for consumers.
  - lordkrandel 1y ago
    Wo-...hooo? Developers in EU have half the salary they get in the US and Apple prices are higher here.
    - leakycap 1y ago
      Apple seems to sell just fine to these destitute developers you seem to think make up the entirety of the EU.
aranelsurion 1y ago
I don’t see how these two things are comparable, considering the scale.
- leakycap 1y ago
  > how these two things are comparable Apple has done other unprecedented things, after claiming "if this doesn't change, we will take something from customers" Apple rarely takes something from customers, to the point I'm searching for examples beyond iCards... which are back recently as Invites
  - aranelsurion 1y ago
    “If DMA doesn’t change, we’ll drop some 25% of our revenue” sounds orders of magnitude bigger than “we’ll disable ADP”, which was the example given by OP. It’s like a comparison of “I’d be mildly annoyed” vs. “I’ll burn myself alive” as far as reactions go.
    - leakycap 1y ago
      You're jumping to conclusions about the losses. Apple can stop selling hardware and continue selling services, which are a significant portion of margin-rich revenue. Unless Apple devices become illegal to import or use (unlikely), the resultant gray market will starve said governments of significant yearly iPhone + case purchase VAT Apple might lose something like 1/2 the revenue you suggest in a realistic scenario. 12% is nothing for a company like Apple who has a strong POV.
      - aranelsurion 1y ago
        > Apple can stop selling hardware and continue selling service For a few more years until their former customers move on to competitor's walled garden and become their customers. > starve said governments of significant yearly iPhone + case purchase VAT I can't believe any government seriously feeling the lack of VAT from iPhone sales. That's tiny, even for tiny countries in the EU. Not to mention lack of iPhone sales don't equal lack of Smartphone sales, and grey markets would make an already pricy product even pricier and less desirable because of lack of support, warranty etc. Other brands will sell, and VAT will be collected.
deleted 1y ago
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thewebguyd 1y ago

Plus the EU is only like 7% of Apple's revenue, so I'm also in the camp of "I don't think they are bluffing." They'd still have UK & Norway, both of which have a higher share of iOS than other European nations. The US & China are much bigger, more important markets for Apple.

troupo 1y ago
> Plus the EU is only like 7% of Apple's revenue I doubt that. E.g. according to these charts, it's at least a quarter of profits: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/metrics/revenue-by-geography/ https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/metrics/revenue-by-geo... > so I'm also in the camp of "I don't think they are bluffing." How big is Russian market do you think? They didn't quit even that, and here we are pretending that Apple is going to quit EU. > They'd still have UK & Norway, both of which have a higher share of iOS than other European nations. UK and Norway is ~75 million people EU is 450 million people > The US & China are much bigger, more important markets for Apple. So, a wealthy US market with 350 million people is very important. Unlike the wealthy EU market with 450 million people which Apple can just easily abandon.
- thewebguyd 1y ago
  You are correct, I had my numbers mixed up. EU is 7% of Apple's app store revenue specifically, not total revenue. Definitely makes it seem more likely they are bluffing in that case unless they plan on just selling dumb phones with no app store.
makeitdouble 1y ago
Apple completely leaving the EU means most of their network effect is gone. Any app targeting the EU is then required to go android first, and other markets will have a real life sample of what happens when Apple leaves, which won't be as catastrophic as Apple predicts. Sony and Sharp won't be crying a river if Japan does the same move for instance.
5555624 1y ago
> Plus the EU is only like 7% of Apple's revenue It appears that Europe is 26% of Apple's revenue. (https://bullfincher.io/companies/apple/revenue-by-geography https://bullfincher.io/companies/apple/revenue-by-geography)
- thewebguyd 1y ago
  You are correct, I had my numbers mixed up. EU is 7% of Apple's app store revenue specifically, not total revenue. Definitely makes it seem more likely they are bluffing in that case unless they plan on just selling dumb phones with no app store.
  - lordkrandel 1y ago
    This also shows how much we care about Apple's threats. Do you know how much is a developer salary in Europe? Ofc people use Lenovo stuff for half the price. We mostly don't care about Apple.
    - leakycap 1y ago
      Is the new anti-Apple storyline that the EU has no money? I don't think that's going to do well. Heard of Lenovo & Superfish or just don't care about that kind of thing when choosing a vendor?
      - lordkrandel 1y ago
        My salary is a quarter than one in SF. It's the storyline of my life. Iphones would cost me a full month's salary, in Italy. Have fun in your dream world.
- Aloisius 1y ago
  Apple's "Europe" segment includes European countries (including those not in the EU), India, the Middle East and Africa.

makeitdouble 1y ago

They might kill features for various reasons, but never left a market at this point I think ?

leakycap 1y ago
I thought Apple would leave Brazil or China before we'd see them leave the EU, but I don't think I can think of Apple bluffing in this way before, either
- makeitdouble 1y ago
  We've seen them straight lie under investigation from the US gov and bullshit even the smallest request from court judgments. Those are not exactly the same thing, but Apple playing political games and emit the message they want without any reality behind it isn't new. They'll use whatever tool they have at hand if they see a strong enough chance to get away with it.

pier25 1y ago

Apple would be giving away +$100B every year to Samsung and others companies. What would the EU lose?

leakycap 1y ago
Apple would still sell a large number of devices, but not have to provide an extra year of EU warranty for free. Or any warranty, actually. Tariffs also become less of Apple's problem when the phones aren't being sold via official channels. The EU is not a growing market of consideration compared to China or India. > What would the EU lose? A very secure smartphone option for consumers.
- lordkrandel 1y ago
  Wo-...hooo? Developers in EU have half the salary they get in the US and Apple prices are higher here.
  - leakycap 1y ago
    Apple seems to sell just fine to these destitute developers you seem to think make up the entirety of the EU.

aranelsurion 1y ago

I don’t see how these two things are comparable, considering the scale.

leakycap 1y ago
> how these two things are comparable Apple has done other unprecedented things, after claiming "if this doesn't change, we will take something from customers" Apple rarely takes something from customers, to the point I'm searching for examples beyond iCards... which are back recently as Invites
- aranelsurion 1y ago
  “If DMA doesn’t change, we’ll drop some 25% of our revenue” sounds orders of magnitude bigger than “we’ll disable ADP”, which was the example given by OP. It’s like a comparison of “I’d be mildly annoyed” vs. “I’ll burn myself alive” as far as reactions go.
  - leakycap 1y ago
    You're jumping to conclusions about the losses. Apple can stop selling hardware and continue selling services, which are a significant portion of margin-rich revenue. Unless Apple devices become illegal to import or use (unlikely), the resultant gray market will starve said governments of significant yearly iPhone + case purchase VAT Apple might lose something like 1/2 the revenue you suggest in a realistic scenario. 12% is nothing for a company like Apple who has a strong POV.
    - aranelsurion 1y ago
      > Apple can stop selling hardware and continue selling service For a few more years until their former customers move on to competitor's walled garden and become their customers. > starve said governments of significant yearly iPhone + case purchase VAT I can't believe any government seriously feeling the lack of VAT from iPhone sales. That's tiny, even for tiny countries in the EU. Not to mention lack of iPhone sales don't equal lack of Smartphone sales, and grey markets would make an already pricy product even pricier and less desirable because of lack of support, warranty etc. Other brands will sell, and VAT will be collected.

deleted 1y ago

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