4 ms·

It's been a while, but I don't recall any of the dotcom startups making deals with nuclear energy companies to buy out entire nuclear power stations: https://ww

by jerf 1y ago

It's been a while, but I don't recall any of the dotcom startups making deals with nuclear energy companies to buy out entire nuclear power stations: https://www.npr.org/2024/09/20/nx-s1-5120581/three-mile-island-nuclear-power-plant-microsoft-ai https://www.npr.org/2024/09/20/nx-s1-5120581/three-mile-isla... And that's just an example, there are many power-related deals of similar magnitude. The companies building out capacity certainly believe that AI is going to use as much power as we are told. We are told this not on the basis of hypothetical speculation, but on the basis of billions of real dollars being spent on real power capacity for real data centers by real people who'd really rather keep the money in question. Previous hypotheses not backed by billions of dollars are not comparable predictions.

wheelerwj 1y ago
100% this.
kyledrake 1y ago
> The companies building out capacity certainly believe that AI is going to use as much power as we are told. The same could be said of dark fiber laid during the dot com boom, or unused railroads, etc. Spending during a boom is not indicative of properly recognized future demand of resources.
- jerf 1y ago
  It's not future demand, it's current demand. Microsoft has already said they're power blocked rather than chip blocked. Please note how I say current demand, and don't over project as to what my opinion about future demand is. I think there's a small, but reasonable chance that demand will sink for some reason or another in the next few years, and I think there's a pretty decent chance that in the next five years someone will come up with some way to make these things an order of magnitude or more more efficient, which would crash their electricity demands. But it's not a hypothetical "we need power in two years", or at least, not just that... it's we need more power now. There's a big difference between "I may hypothetically need some more capacity later, I'd better go buy it now" and "I concretely need more capacity right now".
  - acaloiar 1y ago
    > It's not future demand, it's current demand. Microsoft has already said they're power blocked rather than chip blocked. This is not me doubting you, but your comment will carry considerably more weight if you provide a reference to Microsoft's statement.
    - dmd 1y ago
      https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-correction-microsoft-ceo-ai-chip-demand-frenzy-2024-12 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock...
skybrian 1y ago
Yes, big bets tell us something but they are not a crystal ball. Some of the same companies hired lots of people post-pandemic and then reversed. People who control enormous amounts of money can make risky bets that turn out to be wrong.
- tharmas 1y ago
  There's a theory BigTech hired to hoard talent to inhibit competitiveness of rival companies.
  - kjkjadksj 1y ago
    That is not a theory and not limited to big tech either.
    - 1vuio0pswjnm7 1y ago
      What are the other examples
j45 1y ago
They might not be buying them outright but that doesn’t sound like a realistic first or initial set of steps. There are new commitments. Microsoft: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-goes-nuclear-biggest-beneficiaries-092000218.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-goes-nuclear-bigges... Google: https://interestingengineering.com/energy/google-gen4-nuclear-reactor-tva-kairos-pp https://interestingengineering.com/energy/google-gen4-nuclea... Amazon: https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/16/amazon-jumps-on-nuclear-power-bandwagon-by-investing-in-x-energy-and-promising-small-reactors/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/16/amazon-jumps-on-nuclear-po... OpenAI/Sam Altman: https://interestingengineering.com/energy/oklo-to-generate-12-gw-of-nuclear-energy https://interestingengineering.com/energy/oklo-to-generate-1... More: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/20/1116339/ai-nuclear-power-energy-reactors/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/20/1116339/ai-nucle...
belter 1y ago
"Exposing The Dark Side of America's AI Data Center Explosion" - https://youtu.be/t-8TDOFqkQA https://youtu.be/t-8TDOFqkQA
dinfinity 1y ago
1. Microsoft is not a "dotcom startup". We live in a different, much more consolidated tech world of companies that either balloon to become behemoths or are bought by existing behemoths. 2. Power and data centers can be used for other things than AI. 3. They might turn out to be wrong and not need the deal/power. For companies sitting on a shitload of cash that would be an inconvenience whereas not investing and then later having to beg for electricity amounts to losing the race.

by jerf 1y ago

wheelerwj 1y ago

100% this.

kyledrake 1y ago

> The companies building out capacity certainly believe that AI is going to use as much power as we are told. The same could be said of dark fiber laid during the dot com boom, or unused railroads, etc. Spending during a boom is not indicative of properly recognized future demand of resources.

jerf 1y ago
It's not future demand, it's current demand. Microsoft has already said they're power blocked rather than chip blocked. Please note how I say current demand, and don't over project as to what my opinion about future demand is. I think there's a small, but reasonable chance that demand will sink for some reason or another in the next few years, and I think there's a pretty decent chance that in the next five years someone will come up with some way to make these things an order of magnitude or more more efficient, which would crash their electricity demands. But it's not a hypothetical "we need power in two years", or at least, not just that... it's we need more power now. There's a big difference between "I may hypothetically need some more capacity later, I'd better go buy it now" and "I concretely need more capacity right now".
- acaloiar 1y ago
  > It's not future demand, it's current demand. Microsoft has already said they're power blocked rather than chip blocked. This is not me doubting you, but your comment will carry considerably more weight if you provide a reference to Microsoft's statement.
  - dmd 1y ago
    https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-correction-microsoft-ceo-ai-chip-demand-frenzy-2024-12 https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock...

skybrian 1y ago

Yes, big bets tell us something but they are not a crystal ball. Some of the same companies hired lots of people post-pandemic and then reversed. People who control enormous amounts of money can make risky bets that turn out to be wrong.

tharmas 1y ago
There's a theory BigTech hired to hoard talent to inhibit competitiveness of rival companies.
- kjkjadksj 1y ago
  That is not a theory and not limited to big tech either.
  - 1vuio0pswjnm7 1y ago
    What are the other examples

j45 1y ago

They might not be buying them outright but that doesn’t sound like a realistic first or initial set of steps. There are new commitments. Microsoft: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-goes-nuclear-biggest-beneficiaries-092000218.html https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-goes-nuclear-bigges... Google: https://interestingengineering.com/energy/google-gen4-nuclear-reactor-tva-kairos-pp https://interestingengineering.com/energy/google-gen4-nuclea... Amazon: https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/16/amazon-jumps-on-nuclear-power-bandwagon-by-investing-in-x-energy-and-promising-small-reactors/ https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/16/amazon-jumps-on-nuclear-po... OpenAI/Sam Altman: https://interestingengineering.com/energy/oklo-to-generate-12-gw-of-nuclear-energy https://interestingengineering.com/energy/oklo-to-generate-1... More: https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/20/1116339/ai-nuclear-power-energy-reactors/ https://www.technologyreview.com/2025/05/20/1116339/ai-nucle...

belter 1y ago

"Exposing The Dark Side of America's AI Data Center Explosion" - https://youtu.be/t-8TDOFqkQA https://youtu.be/t-8TDOFqkQA

dinfinity 1y ago

1. Microsoft is not a "dotcom startup". We live in a different, much more consolidated tech world of companies that either balloon to become behemoths or are bought by existing behemoths. 2. Power and data centers can be used for other things than AI. 3. They might turn out to be wrong and not need the deal/power. For companies sitting on a shitload of cash that would be an inconvenience whereas not investing and then later having to beg for electricity amounts to losing the race.