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Russia has had to sell oil at a steep discount, which has cut into their revenue significantly. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been frozen/seized that can

Russia has had to sell oil at a steep discount, which has cut into their revenue significantly. Hundreds of billions of dollars have been frozen/seized that can't be used to fund the war effort. Modern war is not just "beans and bullets”, and Russia pays upwards of 10 times the price for key components it needs for missiles, aviation, UAVs, tanks, artillery, air defense, etc. as well as quality manufacturing equipment needed. Russian industry is operating at only 81% capacity, largely due to labor shortages, which make sense considering that about 1% of its labor force join the military every other month. Russia is losing tank barrels, artillery barrels, and infantry fighting vehicles more than 10 times faster than it can manufacture new ones. It will likely never be able to obtain a third rotary forge, required for barrel manufacture, to expand its capacity. It has almost entirely cannibalized its old, defunct Soviet era stock. They are being kept afloat by China, NK, and Iran, but with a much-reduced capacity, and often much lower quality. For example, Russia relies on China for 70-80% of its microchips, but China is dumping defective microchips on them with a 40% failure rate. Sanctions have absolutely had significant, direct, measurable impacts on Russia’s ability to wage war and sustain war. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/21/half-of-russias-airbus-a320neo-fleet-grounded-amid-engine-problems-sanctions-kommersant-a87087 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/11/21/half-of-russias-ai... https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arms-storage-bases/ https://jamestown.org/program/russia-exhausts-soviet-era-arm... https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-300-billion-reserves-frozen-west-2023-12-28/ https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/what-where-are-russias-... https://archive.ph/c17pk https://archive.ph/c17pk https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-2025-the-year-that-russias-economy-finally-freezes-up-under-sanctions/ https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/is-202... https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-russias-future https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-sanctions-have-reshaped-ru... https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/impact-sanctions-and-alliances-russian-military-capabilities https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/comme... https://osintforukraine.com/publications/microchips https://osintforukraine.com/publications/microchips https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semiconductro_failure_rates/ https://www.theregister.com/2022/10/18/russia_china_semicond...

lazide 1y ago
I’m not saying the sanctions haven’t hurt, rather that when the war was at its decisive point (the first few days) they did not exist/were immaterial. Now they’re just doing more damage in an already damaging (and unwinnable) situation.
- dh2022 1y ago
  The biggest sanctions were adopted after the war started (and then the West kept piling up new sanctions every few months). Are you suggesting the West should have put these harsh sanctions before the war? My recollection of Dec 2021 and Jan/Feb 2022 were that the West was trying to avoid inciting the crazy Russian dictator: Biden had two tele conferences with Putin in December, there were three meetings in Jan (OSCE - Russia, NATO - Russia, Lavrov - Blinken) And I do not think the situation is unwinnable for the West (it is probably unwinnable for Ukraine as it will not be able to get its territory back). Russia is getting weaker with every man it loses, every tank is destroyed, every young man/woman who decides to leave. I would be surprised if Western Europe will want to do business with Russia for a generation - which basically makes Russia China's vassal for the same period of time. Russia will be in bad shape for decades. The West will be just fine.
  - lazide 1y ago
    The west is screwed too, because Russia is (and has been) doing everything it can to poison that well too - and widely succeeding. Or do you think all this authoritarianism sprouting everything is just random coincidence? It’s classic crabs in a bucket, which Russia has always been good at.
  - int_19h 1y ago
    The West should have put boots on the ground in Ukraine before Russia invaded. That was the one thing that would have prevented the war. Hell, they should have had EU peacekeepers along the line of contact back in 2015. The kind of sanctions that we've seen since then seem to be mostly about appearances, with EU trying to pretend that it "really cares" despite this epic failure of foreign policy.
- 1y ago

lazide 1y ago

I’m not saying the sanctions haven’t hurt, rather that when the war was at its decisive point (the first few days) they did not exist/were immaterial. Now they’re just doing more damage in an already damaging (and unwinnable) situation.

dh2022 1y ago
The biggest sanctions were adopted after the war started (and then the West kept piling up new sanctions every few months). Are you suggesting the West should have put these harsh sanctions before the war? My recollection of Dec 2021 and Jan/Feb 2022 were that the West was trying to avoid inciting the crazy Russian dictator: Biden had two tele conferences with Putin in December, there were three meetings in Jan (OSCE - Russia, NATO - Russia, Lavrov - Blinken) And I do not think the situation is unwinnable for the West (it is probably unwinnable for Ukraine as it will not be able to get its territory back). Russia is getting weaker with every man it loses, every tank is destroyed, every young man/woman who decides to leave. I would be surprised if Western Europe will want to do business with Russia for a generation - which basically makes Russia China's vassal for the same period of time. Russia will be in bad shape for decades. The West will be just fine.
- lazide 1y ago
  The west is screwed too, because Russia is (and has been) doing everything it can to poison that well too - and widely succeeding. Or do you think all this authoritarianism sprouting everything is just random coincidence? It’s classic crabs in a bucket, which Russia has always been good at.
- int_19h 1y ago
  The West should have put boots on the ground in Ukraine before Russia invaded. That was the one thing that would have prevented the war. Hell, they should have had EU peacekeepers along the line of contact back in 2015. The kind of sanctions that we've seen since then seem to be mostly about appearances, with EU trying to pretend that it "really cares" despite this epic failure of foreign policy.
1y ago