4 ms·

Not going to happen with the EU.

by flanked-evergl 1y ago

pjmlp 1y ago
Depends where geopolitics end up going wrong, more than they are already. Drastic times call for drastic measures.
- flanked-evergl 1y ago
  I hope you are right.
ktosobcy 1y ago
Because? (but please refrain yourself for spreading FUT of how awful and autoritarian the EU is)
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > Because? I'm genuinely curious for the formal answer. But the simple one is European institutions seem to be built for consensus and around the assumption of a Pax Americana. They're a cross between a colony and confederation. If you were rebuilding Europe for strategic autonomy, you'd rejigger several electoral and decision-making systems. (The historic handicap of multiple languages may actually be a case where technology (live translation) solves a social problem.)
- flanked-evergl 1y ago
  EU in practice serves no other function but to deindustrialize Europe and make it entirely dependent on the US, but even more so, China and Russia. In 2024 European countries paid more to Russia for gas than to Ukraine for aid, and I think this is still the case in 2025. We shut down industry because it's not environmentally friendly and then import from the worst polluters in the world. If I was China and Russia and I wanted to completely neutralize Europe as a rival there is no better way I could ever imagine to do it than what the EU is doing. You could say that EU can be fixed, sure, in principle, but we know it won't be fixed. We know it will only get worse because the rot has become systemic. If we were to objectively consider Europe, and say what could one do to prevent a war between Europe and other powers, there generally are two things. Prevent others from attacking Europe, and prevent Europe from resisting when others attack it. European politicians have chosen the second option. You can see it from how many people are willing to fight, you can see it from Europe's response to Russian aggression. Europe may be stronger than Russia on paper, but it pains me dearly to say that we have already surrendered to Russia.
  - lloeki 1y ago
    In 2024 EU gas imports were 19% from Russia, down from 45% before the war with Ukraine, IOW cut down the revenue stream by more than a half. And EU just decided last week to forbid all Russian gas imports starting Jan 1st 2027, among other things. I don't think you have your story straight.
    - flanked-evergl 1y ago
      https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russian-fossil-fuels-in-third-year-of-invasion-surpass-financial-aid-sent-to-ukraine/ https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russ... > EU imports of Russian fossil fuels in third year of invasion surpass financial aid sent to Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more-russian-oil-gas-than-financial-aid-ukraine-report https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more... > EU spends more on Russian oil and gas than financial aid to Ukraine – report https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxk454kxz8o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxk454kxz8o > How the West is helping Russia to fund its war on Ukraine https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/27/europe-imports-more-russian-gas-aiding-wartime-economy-report-finds https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/27/europe-imports-more... > Europe imports more Russian gas, aiding wartime economy, report finds https://europeannewsroom.com/why-is-europe-still-paying-russia-billions-for-oil-and-gas/ https://europeannewsroom.com/why-is-europe-still-paying-russ... > Why is Europe still paying Russia billions for oil and gas? --- > I don't think you have your story straight. I do. You don't. The commitment for 2027 is great, but that is about 3 years later than it should have come, and it's also made without an actual plan to implement it.
      - lloeki 1y ago
        If 2024 (19%) is more than the help to Ukraine that means the cut of cash flow to Russia i.e the drop from 45% to 19% (26%) is also more than the help to Ukraine. > that is about 3 years later than it should have come We can always wish it would be possible to arbitrarily turn a big faucet closed overnight, the harsh reality is that one can't turn their own economic, industrial, and ultimately social system to a grinding halt as well, which is counterproductive to any effort at fighting this war. Note that the original plan from 2022 was to cut by two thirds within a year and completely by 2030, so 2027 is 3 years earlier. You could argue that the mistake was to have 45% of pre-war gas imports coming from a single source... but it's hard to argue that EU is not pulling their weight in this fight given the hole they were in.
- wolvesechoes 1y ago
  Because EU is what it is - not a country. There are no EU companies, EU technologies, EU universities etc. Moreover, EU is a child of US hegemony. It was created because of this hegemony (US was actively helping create EU), it existed because of this hegemony and global order enforced by it, and now there is big chance it will dissolve because hegemony is gone, and with it the world that gave birth to EU. The other alternative would be to change the nature of EU towards centralization or federation, but no member state will go with it. Contrary to some claims, EU main problems were not industry or economy, even though they suffered from the same neoliberal virus that destroyed US. Problems always were, and will be, political.
  - XorNot 1y ago
    This is just American exceptionalism cope. With the US hegemony circling the drain, there's no end of "well Europe will fall too!" claims going around because how embarrassing for the US if their system was a failure and socialist Europe a success.
    - wolvesechoes 1y ago
      I live in Poland, I think membership in EU was highly beneficial to us, and I consider our, and rest of EU countries, reliance on US a huge problem. I never said "Europe will fall too!", for Europe and EU are not referring to the same thing. This is why discussing these matters with people here is usually pointless, as there is so much misconception floating around about what EU is. EU is set of bureaucratic institutions facilitating cooperation between some countries in Europe. It cannot fall, it will simply stop working. And it cannot create OSes, as suggested in this thread. As for "socialist Europe" - please. Social democracy, maybe with exception of Nordics, is on decline for quite some time now, although the extent to which Nordics are socialist is debatable as well.
      - flanked-evergl 1y ago
        Whatever you want to call what Norway is doing, one thing is certain, it's going poorly.

Not going to happen with the EU.

pjmlp 1y ago

Depends where geopolitics end up going wrong, more than they are already. Drastic times call for drastic measures.

flanked-evergl 1y ago
I hope you are right.

ktosobcy 1y ago

Because? (but please refrain yourself for spreading FUT of how awful and autoritarian the EU is)

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> Because? I'm genuinely curious for the formal answer. But the simple one is European institutions seem to be built for consensus and around the assumption of a Pax Americana. They're a cross between a colony and confederation. If you were rebuilding Europe for strategic autonomy, you'd rejigger several electoral and decision-making systems. (The historic handicap of multiple languages may actually be a case where technology (live translation) solves a social problem.)
flanked-evergl 1y ago
EU in practice serves no other function but to deindustrialize Europe and make it entirely dependent on the US, but even more so, China and Russia. In 2024 European countries paid more to Russia for gas than to Ukraine for aid, and I think this is still the case in 2025. We shut down industry because it's not environmentally friendly and then import from the worst polluters in the world. If I was China and Russia and I wanted to completely neutralize Europe as a rival there is no better way I could ever imagine to do it than what the EU is doing. You could say that EU can be fixed, sure, in principle, but we know it won't be fixed. We know it will only get worse because the rot has become systemic. If we were to objectively consider Europe, and say what could one do to prevent a war between Europe and other powers, there generally are two things. Prevent others from attacking Europe, and prevent Europe from resisting when others attack it. European politicians have chosen the second option. You can see it from how many people are willing to fight, you can see it from Europe's response to Russian aggression. Europe may be stronger than Russia on paper, but it pains me dearly to say that we have already surrendered to Russia.
- lloeki 1y ago
  In 2024 EU gas imports were 19% from Russia, down from 45% before the war with Ukraine, IOW cut down the revenue stream by more than a half. And EU just decided last week to forbid all Russian gas imports starting Jan 1st 2027, among other things. I don't think you have your story straight.
  - flanked-evergl 1y ago
    https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russian-fossil-fuels-in-third-year-of-invasion-surpass-financial-aid-sent-to-ukraine/ https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/eu-imports-of-russ... > EU imports of Russian fossil fuels in third year of invasion surpass financial aid sent to Ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more-russian-oil-gas-than-financial-aid-ukraine-report https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/24/eu-spends-more... > EU spends more on Russian oil and gas than financial aid to Ukraine – report https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxk454kxz8o https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdxk454kxz8o > How the West is helping Russia to fund its war on Ukraine https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/27/europe-imports-more-russian-gas-aiding-wartime-economy-report-finds https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/27/europe-imports-more... > Europe imports more Russian gas, aiding wartime economy, report finds https://europeannewsroom.com/why-is-europe-still-paying-russia-billions-for-oil-and-gas/ https://europeannewsroom.com/why-is-europe-still-paying-russ... > Why is Europe still paying Russia billions for oil and gas? --- > I don't think you have your story straight. I do. You don't. The commitment for 2027 is great, but that is about 3 years later than it should have come, and it's also made without an actual plan to implement it.
    - lloeki 1y ago
      If 2024 (19%) is more than the help to Ukraine that means the cut of cash flow to Russia i.e the drop from 45% to 19% (26%) is also more than the help to Ukraine. > that is about 3 years later than it should have come We can always wish it would be possible to arbitrarily turn a big faucet closed overnight, the harsh reality is that one can't turn their own economic, industrial, and ultimately social system to a grinding halt as well, which is counterproductive to any effort at fighting this war. Note that the original plan from 2022 was to cut by two thirds within a year and completely by 2030, so 2027 is 3 years earlier. You could argue that the mistake was to have 45% of pre-war gas imports coming from a single source... but it's hard to argue that EU is not pulling their weight in this fight given the hole they were in.
wolvesechoes 1y ago
Because EU is what it is - not a country. There are no EU companies, EU technologies, EU universities etc. Moreover, EU is a child of US hegemony. It was created because of this hegemony (US was actively helping create EU), it existed because of this hegemony and global order enforced by it, and now there is big chance it will dissolve because hegemony is gone, and with it the world that gave birth to EU. The other alternative would be to change the nature of EU towards centralization or federation, but no member state will go with it. Contrary to some claims, EU main problems were not industry or economy, even though they suffered from the same neoliberal virus that destroyed US. Problems always were, and will be, political.
- XorNot 1y ago
  This is just American exceptionalism cope. With the US hegemony circling the drain, there's no end of "well Europe will fall too!" claims going around because how embarrassing for the US if their system was a failure and socialist Europe a success.
  - wolvesechoes 1y ago
    I live in Poland, I think membership in EU was highly beneficial to us, and I consider our, and rest of EU countries, reliance on US a huge problem. I never said "Europe will fall too!", for Europe and EU are not referring to the same thing. This is why discussing these matters with people here is usually pointless, as there is so much misconception floating around about what EU is. EU is set of bureaucratic institutions facilitating cooperation between some countries in Europe. It cannot fall, it will simply stop working. And it cannot create OSes, as suggested in this thread. As for "socialist Europe" - please. Social democracy, maybe with exception of Nordics, is on decline for quite some time now, although the extent to which Nordics are socialist is debatable as well.
    - flanked-evergl 1y ago
      Whatever you want to call what Norway is doing, one thing is certain, it's going poorly.