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The stupid thing about those indiscriminate sanctions is that it goes against the very values the West is pretending to defend. EU charter of Human Rights is ex

The stupid thing about those indiscriminate sanctions is that it goes against the very values the West is pretending to defend. EU charter of Human Rights is explicit about condemning collective responsibility, universal declaration of human rights demands justice to be applied reasonably and individually, yet here we are: punishing people without trial. Do those sanctions even work? North Korea still builds nuclear weapons, Cuba still has a communist government, Iran is still a theocratic regime. You don’t start revolution by trade embargo. You start it by sending more jeans and heavy metal records.

LoganDark 1y ago
I think the theory is that the powers that be will feel bad for their citizens or that the citizens will revolt. Neither of those happen in practice though.
Schnitz 1y ago
Sanctions work, but not in the way that is the common public perception. The expectation isn’t that Russia or whoever falls apart a few weeks after we lock them out of Visa payment rails or whatever. The reality is that the sanctions stifle economic growth and that effect is compounding. Even if sanctions only reduce growth by 1 percentage point, after ~19 years your economy is already 20% smaller than it would be without sanctions and that is measurable. From a national security perspective, it makes Russia a lot less concerning if their industrial output is 20% less. Now imagine trying to start a software business in Iran, the stifling effect is way higher than a measly percentage point. Note that I’m not making a moral judgement, I’m simply sharing my understanding of sanctions.
- akho 1y ago
  > Now imagine trying to start a software business in Iran, the stifling effect is way higher than a measly percentage point. Depriving Iranians of legal access to Western tools opens the market to locals. I suspect that the market is big enough to build a business. It'difficult to assess gdp impact in this particular area. It's not really dependent on blockable imports.
- ivan_gammel 1y ago
  > From a national security perspective, it makes Russia a lot less concerning if their industrial output is 20% less Russian military industrial output has significantly increased and more importantly they demonstrated the ability to scale it up very quickly. The economy has grown during the war - the effects of the sanctions may become painful in the long term only if they will stay for decades, which is unlikely.
reissbaker 1y ago
Do those sanctions even work? Well, you mentioned "North Korea still builds nuclear weapons," but didn't mention Iran having them. So, something worked. It wasn't 100% just sanctions... But the sanctions certainly hampered their ability to acquire effective air defense. (The NK sanctions were too late — NK had already started nuclear weapons testing before the sanctions were levied.) Off the top of my head: I don't think the USSR is still around, and it largely collapsed due to economic pressure; Libya abandoned its nuclear program due to sanctions; and apartheid in South Africa ended largely due to sanctions. They don't always work, but I've never heard of jeans and heavy metal working either, as nice as that would be. Belarus has plenty of both, but Lukashenko's been in power since the 90s.
- ivan_gammel 1y ago
  > But the sanctions certainly hampered their ability to acquire effective air defense. Effective air defense against military superpower (and they were effectively fighting against American technology) is something very hard to build, with or without sanctions. Ukraine is a good proof: Russia was denied air superiority using manned aircrafts but they still manage to inflict significant damage with missiles and drones. > I don't think the USSR is still around, and it largely collapsed due to economic pressure It wasn’t external pressure at all. Soviet Union had everything to be self-sustainable (e.g. Russia and Ukraine have proven later that in agriculture it’s absolutely possible). They failed to execute transition to regulated market economy the way China did. Gorbachev thought democracy goes first (the entire Warsaw bloc collapsed thanks to “blue jeans” - KGB and Stasi feared Western culture the most, and the West was ready to send more of it).
  - reissbaker 1y ago
    Denying external economic pressure affecting the USSR seems... Wishful, in a certain direction. As does denying that sanctions have helped prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, which it has clearly been working on for a very long time, and repeatedly failing to acquire. Regardless, you don't have an answer to Libya's nuclear program being shut down due to sanctions, and South African apartheid ending due to sanctions. Do sanctions have a 100% success rate? No. But they have a much higher success rate than jeans and heavy metal.

LoganDark 1y ago

I think the theory is that the powers that be will feel bad for their citizens or that the citizens will revolt. Neither of those happen in practice though.

Schnitz 1y ago

Sanctions work, but not in the way that is the common public perception. The expectation isn’t that Russia or whoever falls apart a few weeks after we lock them out of Visa payment rails or whatever. The reality is that the sanctions stifle economic growth and that effect is compounding. Even if sanctions only reduce growth by 1 percentage point, after ~19 years your economy is already 20% smaller than it would be without sanctions and that is measurable. From a national security perspective, it makes Russia a lot less concerning if their industrial output is 20% less. Now imagine trying to start a software business in Iran, the stifling effect is way higher than a measly percentage point. Note that I’m not making a moral judgement, I’m simply sharing my understanding of sanctions.

akho 1y ago
> Now imagine trying to start a software business in Iran, the stifling effect is way higher than a measly percentage point. Depriving Iranians of legal access to Western tools opens the market to locals. I suspect that the market is big enough to build a business. It'difficult to assess gdp impact in this particular area. It's not really dependent on blockable imports.
ivan_gammel 1y ago
> From a national security perspective, it makes Russia a lot less concerning if their industrial output is 20% less Russian military industrial output has significantly increased and more importantly they demonstrated the ability to scale it up very quickly. The economy has grown during the war - the effects of the sanctions may become painful in the long term only if they will stay for decades, which is unlikely.

reissbaker 1y ago

Do those sanctions even work? Well, you mentioned "North Korea still builds nuclear weapons," but didn't mention Iran having them. So, something worked. It wasn't 100% just sanctions... But the sanctions certainly hampered their ability to acquire effective air defense. (The NK sanctions were too late — NK had already started nuclear weapons testing before the sanctions were levied.) Off the top of my head: I don't think the USSR is still around, and it largely collapsed due to economic pressure; Libya abandoned its nuclear program due to sanctions; and apartheid in South Africa ended largely due to sanctions. They don't always work, but I've never heard of jeans and heavy metal working either, as nice as that would be. Belarus has plenty of both, but Lukashenko's been in power since the 90s.

ivan_gammel 1y ago
> But the sanctions certainly hampered their ability to acquire effective air defense. Effective air defense against military superpower (and they were effectively fighting against American technology) is something very hard to build, with or without sanctions. Ukraine is a good proof: Russia was denied air superiority using manned aircrafts but they still manage to inflict significant damage with missiles and drones. > I don't think the USSR is still around, and it largely collapsed due to economic pressure It wasn’t external pressure at all. Soviet Union had everything to be self-sustainable (e.g. Russia and Ukraine have proven later that in agriculture it’s absolutely possible). They failed to execute transition to regulated market economy the way China did. Gorbachev thought democracy goes first (the entire Warsaw bloc collapsed thanks to “blue jeans” - KGB and Stasi feared Western culture the most, and the West was ready to send more of it).
- reissbaker 1y ago
  Denying external economic pressure affecting the USSR seems... Wishful, in a certain direction. As does denying that sanctions have helped prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, which it has clearly been working on for a very long time, and repeatedly failing to acquire. Regardless, you don't have an answer to Libya's nuclear program being shut down due to sanctions, and South African apartheid ending due to sanctions. Do sanctions have a 100% success rate? No. But they have a much higher success rate than jeans and heavy metal.