4 ms·

SC is gonna shut it down. Anyone taking bets?

JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> Anyone taking bets? Polymarket is, at least for tariffs [1]. [1] https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-trumps-tariffs?tid=1758586528377 https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-...
- abduhl 1y ago
  So is everyone else invested in the stock market.
- Tadpole9181 1y ago
  I can't stand people posting this website on HN. Polymarket is a bunch of gambling addicts just throwing money at a wall - there's no market research or actual backing insight. It has such intellectual rhetoric as: > if you look closely, you can see DUMFUQ Sucks-His-Balls BUYING HIGH, then SELLING LOW! Dumfuq SUCKS-HIS-BALLS must have confused this for a Ceasefire market to trade like shit!
  - spangry 1y ago
    Then why don’t you go bet against these people? You could be rich.
    - nixpulvis 1y ago
      Betting against a dumb bet isn't automatically smart.
    - Tadpole9181 1y ago
      Bet against both sides? Buddy, I take it back, maybe that site is appropriate for some of HN.
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    I think you've shown Polymarket comments are crap. But I'd say that for every venue on the internet except, occasionally, HN. While there is legitimate concern around manipulation given Polymarket's thin volumes [1], there is limited evidence that the broader value of prediction markets applies to them [2]. (I started taking it seriously after Nate Silver hitched up his wagon [3].) I'm sceptical of political predictions. I have limited respect for crypto. But on the balance, once you account for manipulation risk, it has a good track record. More pointedly to OP's question, I don't see any controversy around its adjudication and ability to pay. [1] https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-political-prediction-markets https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-politi... [2] https://www.uc.edu/news/articles/2024/12/election-results-show-potential-of-prediction-markets.html https://www.uc.edu/news/articles/2024/12/election-results-sh... [3] https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket
  - rjdj377dhabsn 1y ago
    That's how the stock market works as well. The only people with actually valuable information are a very tiny fraction of the participants. And that's fine. Wisdom of crowds will still prevail.

> Anyone taking bets? Polymarket is, at least for tariffs [1]. [1] https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-trumps-tariffs?tid=1758586528377 https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-...

abduhl 1y ago
So is everyone else invested in the stock market.
Tadpole9181 1y ago
I can't stand people posting this website on HN. Polymarket is a bunch of gambling addicts just throwing money at a wall - there's no market research or actual backing insight. It has such intellectual rhetoric as: > if you look closely, you can see DUMFUQ Sucks-His-Balls BUYING HIGH, then SELLING LOW! Dumfuq SUCKS-HIS-BALLS must have confused this for a Ceasefire market to trade like shit!
- spangry 1y ago
  Then why don’t you go bet against these people? You could be rich.
  - nixpulvis 1y ago
    Betting against a dumb bet isn't automatically smart.
  - Tadpole9181 1y ago
    Bet against both sides? Buddy, I take it back, maybe that site is appropriate for some of HN.
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  I think you've shown Polymarket comments are crap. But I'd say that for every venue on the internet except, occasionally, HN. While there is legitimate concern around manipulation given Polymarket's thin volumes [1], there is limited evidence that the broader value of prediction markets applies to them [2]. (I started taking it seriously after Nate Silver hitched up his wagon [3].) I'm sceptical of political predictions. I have limited respect for crypto. But on the balance, once you account for manipulation risk, it has a good track record. More pointedly to OP's question, I don't see any controversy around its adjudication and ability to pay. [1] https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-political-prediction-markets https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/dont-trust-the-politi... [2] https://www.uc.edu/news/articles/2024/12/election-results-show-potential-of-prediction-markets.html https://www.uc.edu/news/articles/2024/12/election-results-sh... [3] https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket https://www.axios.com/2024/07/16/nate-silver-polymarket
- rjdj377dhabsn 1y ago
  That's how the stock market works as well. The only people with actually valuable information are a very tiny fraction of the participants. And that's fine. Wisdom of crowds will still prevail.