4 ms·

Black Swan Manager Sees Rally, Then 1929-Style Crash

• more_corn 1y ago
  I was so sure it’d happen in march, but the market can stay irrational…
  • bdangubic 1y ago
    march of which of the last 10 years?! :) cool thing is each “march” a bunch of new (and old) people think it’ll happen and those that hit that one “march” get movies made about them how they were visionary to predict it.
• thomassmith65 1y ago
  without paywall: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/black-swan-manager-sees-huge-rally-then-1929-style-crash/ar-AA1N3C5T https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/black-swan-manager-s...
• fuzzfactor 1y ago
  The week before Black Monday in 1987 I was not too confident any more, and by Friday I knew we were screwed. I didn't really get that feeling from stock market data, mainly general perception of everything else. I wasn't even keeping up with the price of my stocks very often, I knew they were doing fine. The most pessimistic bears thought the worst was coming as always, if it failed to make a new high and began a retreat it was thought that could be as bad as a 5% to 10% drop over a few months. Finding a bottom about like it was when nobody was worried at all. But I was not one of them. There weren't that many bearish with strong convictions either and overall sentiment was still way positive. I decided to sell everything anyway, but it was too late. By Monday morning first thing, it could not be executed because I was only an individual account, not a high-roller, and those had highest priority. It just got too crowded too fast and dropped over 20% before the day was over.