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It goes to show how there are few good alternatives to tried and true stocks, e.g. VOO/SPY/QQQ. Alternative investments intended as diversification often just

It goes to show how there are few good alternatives to tried and true stocks, e.g. VOO/SPY/QQQ. Alternative investments intended as diversification often just end up lagging and being worse overall, and also highly illiquid in the case of art.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Not wrong, but important to note that the top ten companies in the S&P500 have been responsible for most of the growth since 2022 (with the bottom 490 companies flat) [1]. If art is deflating, crypto is deflating, US commercial real estate is approaching 2008 GFC crisis levels [2] [3] [4], and private equity is locked up because it is unable to exit at current "valuations" [5], this leads me to believe observed growth appears to be not grounded in fundamentals. We are an an Everything Bubble (imho) [6]. These valuations are fictional, but I cannot predict how or when this ends (either slowly, or all of a sudden). [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44701637 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44701637 (citations) [2] https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/us-commercial-real-estate-crisis-office-vacancy-record-highs-2025-08-25/ https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/us-commercial-real-es... [3] https://www.avemarialaw.edu/overview-of-the-impending/ https://www.avemarialaw.edu/overview-of-the-impending/ [4] https://hbr.org/2024/07/u-s-commercial-real-estate-is-headed-toward-a-crisis https://hbr.org/2024/07/u-s-commercial-real-estate-is-headed... [5] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44825303 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44825303 (citations) [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_bubble
bell-cot 1y ago
Gold looks like a pretty good way to diversify from stock: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price_in_USD.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price_in_USD.png

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Not wrong, but important to note that the top ten companies in the S&P500 have been responsible for most of the growth since 2022 (with the bottom 490 companies flat) [1]. If art is deflating, crypto is deflating, US commercial real estate is approaching 2008 GFC crisis levels [2] [3] [4], and private equity is locked up because it is unable to exit at current "valuations" [5], this leads me to believe observed growth appears to be not grounded in fundamentals. We are an an Everything Bubble (imho) [6]. These valuations are fictional, but I cannot predict how or when this ends (either slowly, or all of a sudden). [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44701637 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44701637 (citations) [2] https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/us-commercial-real-estate-crisis-office-vacancy-record-highs-2025-08-25/ https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/us-commercial-real-es... [3] https://www.avemarialaw.edu/overview-of-the-impending/ https://www.avemarialaw.edu/overview-of-the-impending/ [4] https://hbr.org/2024/07/u-s-commercial-real-estate-is-headed-toward-a-crisis https://hbr.org/2024/07/u-s-commercial-real-estate-is-headed... [5] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44825303 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44825303 (citations) [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_bubble https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Everything_bubble

bell-cot 1y ago

Gold looks like a pretty good way to diversify from stock: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price_in_USD.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gold_price_in_USD.png