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Thanks for all the work finding the local national reporting on those statistics. Turkey's numbers look crazy though. Almost doubling every year? Is that jus

by araes 1y ago

Thanks for all the work finding the local national reporting on those statistics. Turkey's numbers look crazy though. Almost doubling every year? Is that just the exchange ratio's runaway hyperinflation? https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/currency https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/currency Almost linearly upward for the last half decade. 2021 2022 2023 98,416 181,200 374,899 household available income 48,642 90,116 187,728 household available individual income

alephnerd 1y ago
> Is that just the exchange ratio's runaway hyperinflation Yep. Turkiye is in a weird position where there is hyperinflation but also economic expansion. It's the hallmarks of an overheating economy. A lot of this was due to the run-up Russia-Ukraine War, which saw significant capital outflow from Russia to all over the CEE, Balkans, and Turkiye (as is reflected in their GDPs per capita), along with Turkiye's then abnormally low interest rates in order to subsidize the construction industry, because Turkiye had it's own Evergrande 10-15 years ago. Turkiye - just like leadership in China who were in their 20s to early 30s in the 1980s - was influenced by the development of Malaysia and Singapore. Mahatir Mohammad was the original Erdogan (infrastructure driven growth mixed with a large welfare state mixed with a heavy dose of Pan-Islamism), and both he and LKY used the same economic model and had a love-hate relationship with each other as they were in the same circles in their early career, but it's easier to develop a 4 million person city state like Singapore instead of a 15-20 million country like Malaysia under Mahatir. Additionally, much of the Chinese economy in the 1990s and 2000s was developed thanks to the Chinese Malaysian diaspora heavily investing in China. The ethnolinguistic group (Hokkien) in the province Xi spent most of his career in (Fujian) itself represents the majority of the Malaysian Chinese business class, and they heavily invested in Fujian (along with Guangdong) during Xi's time there, and were a major reason why China's economy opened up in the 1980s-2000s.

by araes 1y ago

alephnerd 1y ago

> Is that just the exchange ratio's runaway hyperinflation Yep. Turkiye is in a weird position where there is hyperinflation but also economic expansion. It's the hallmarks of an overheating economy. A lot of this was due to the run-up Russia-Ukraine War, which saw significant capital outflow from Russia to all over the CEE, Balkans, and Turkiye (as is reflected in their GDPs per capita), along with Turkiye's then abnormally low interest rates in order to subsidize the construction industry, because Turkiye had it's own Evergrande 10-15 years ago. Turkiye - just like leadership in China who were in their 20s to early 30s in the 1980s - was influenced by the development of Malaysia and Singapore. Mahatir Mohammad was the original Erdogan (infrastructure driven growth mixed with a large welfare state mixed with a heavy dose of Pan-Islamism), and both he and LKY used the same economic model and had a love-hate relationship with each other as they were in the same circles in their early career, but it's easier to develop a 4 million person city state like Singapore instead of a 15-20 million country like Malaysia under Mahatir. Additionally, much of the Chinese economy in the 1990s and 2000s was developed thanks to the Chinese Malaysian diaspora heavily investing in China. The ethnolinguistic group (Hokkien) in the province Xi spent most of his career in (Fujian) itself represents the majority of the Malaysian Chinese business class, and they heavily invested in Fujian (along with Guangdong) during Xi's time there, and were a major reason why China's economy opened up in the 1980s-2000s.