The study you are alluding to is this one by METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research): Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Develo

The study you are alluding to is this one by METR (Model Evaluation & Threat Research): Measuring the Impact of Early-2025 AI on Experienced Open-Source Developer Productivity - https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089 https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089 """ Before starting tasks, developers forecast that allowing AI will reduce completion time by 24%. After completing the study, developers estimate that allowing AI reduced completion time by 20%. Surprisingly, we find that allowing AI actually increases completion time by 19%—AI tooling slowed developers down. This slowdown also contradicts predictions from experts in economics (39% shorter) and ML (38% shorter). """