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This is very short term thinking, in that it assumes a constant amount of work and ignores the global competition for labor. If the US loses its massive lead i
by epistasis 1y ago
This is very short term thinking, in that it assumes a constant amount of work and ignores the global competition for labor.
If the US loses its massive lead in the network effects of a large labor pool, the amount of work in the US will shrink, both by moving to other countries and less overall innovation.
This is not a beneficial move for most software engineers.
- ahmeneeroe-v2 1y agoThere is not a global competition for talent. How many people on here can truly say that they were considering between two different countries. That doesn’t happen at scale. There is a global competition for coming to Western Europe, Canada, and the US
- Seanambers 1y agoExactly, and especially SV and the US has seemingly been almost entirely locked down by Indians.
- AceJohnny2 1y ago> How many people on here can truly say that they were considering between two different countries Hi! I know I'm just a datum, but I gotta represent myself.
- Fordec 1y agoSame, three actually, none of which the US. A closer representation for the US brain may be who is considering between different states? Here is the thing, other countries do not necessarily work exactly the same way as the US or individually have large enough local markets to contain all aspects of the overall tech industry, just locally.
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- epistasis 1y agoNot yet. The slate of policy choices in the US is removing it from that list of countries, and will strengthen those countries' labor forces. Right now SV salaries command a huge premium, because all of SV is predicated on increasing productivity, increasing the economic pie, and rewarding those who do so with a fraction of that gain in GDP. Treating SV labor like plumbing or construction labor fundamentally misunderstands the dynamics and the creation of wealth.
- ahmeneeroe-v2 1y agoRemoving demand doesn’t create more competition, the opposite in fact. SV labor is largely not different than a skilled trade, except at the higher levels.
- epistasis 1y agoThe whole system of SV is exceptionally different, it's all about expanding productivity and GDP. That's where the massive salaries come from, that massive wealth creation. It's not just taking larger chunks of a fixed size pie.
- ahmeneeroe-v2 1y agoWhat do you think an electrician is doing? Sure some electrical capacity goes to non-productive uses, but much of it is also spent doing things like enabling widespread computer usage. SV labor is downstream of skilled trades.
- epistasis 1y agoKeeping the lights on is an absolutely essential societal function, and for keeping an economy running. But expanding the technological capacity of the US is what made us so much wealthier than any other country in the world. And expanding that technological capacity faster than the rest of the world comes from attracting the best technological innovators from the rest of the world. However, with China's and India's size, it's likely that they will now be able to overtake us without relying on much immigration.
- barrkel 1y agoI had to choose between California and Germany. It is a thing.
- toomuchtodo 1y agoInterestingly, Germany is the third, and California the fourth, largest economies in the world.
- goykasi 1y agoDid you have to choose? Or did you have the option? I would wager to bet that a significant amount of people in the US cant afford to move to another state.
- epistasis 1y agoCan you distinguish option and needing to choose here? Having an option would necessarily cause a need to choose.
- goykasi 1y agoI can confidently say yes. Choosing between working in two different countries separated by an entire ocean is an option. Moving to a different state is expensive for many, but moving to another continent is only afforded to a privileged minority.
- Swizec 1y ago> How many people on here can truly say that they were considering between two different countries. That doesn’t happen at scale. /me I started in Slovenia, considered London, actually got an offer in Canada, but ultimately chose San Francisco. Figured that if I’m going to the trouble of moving abroad, I might as well go to the center of the industry. Got lots of friends who chose various EU companies based on desired lifestyle/work/partner balance. You have lots of options as a good engineer. Especially before the last 3 years of market shenanigans.
- ahmeneeroe-v2 1y ago[flagged]
- Swizec 1y ago> Idk, it sounds like you and your talented friends worked hard to get into Western Europe/US/Canada Yes. Up and left -> You’re an immigrant Down and right -> You’re an expat
- freetime2 1y agoThey had a choice. Whether intentional or not, London, Canada, and the US were competing based on which country could offer the best lifestyle. If the US becomes hostile to immigrants, then people with a choice (who are typically the most talented candidates) may choose to live elsewhere.
- ahmeneeroe-v2 1y agoThose countries were not competing for high skilled immigrants. They built themselves into places that high skill immigrants seek, but that is more of a side effect than a competition. The leaders/parties supporting immigration in those countries are ambivalent to receiving high skill immigrants or refugees.
- freetime2 1y ago> Those countries were not keeping for high skilled immigrants. The US, UK, and Canada all have special provisions in their immigration programs aimed at attracting and prioritizing highly-skilled workers. Both the UK [1] and Canada [2] both use a points-based ranking system that prioritizes highly-skilled immigrants. The UK system is clear in its goals: > introduce an Immigration Bill to bring in a firm and fair points-based system that will attract the high-skilled workers we need to contribute to our economy, our communities and our public services. And while the US H1-B program is lottery-based, 20,000 slots are reserved for people who hold a master's degree from a U.S. institution. Proposals have also been made recently to change to a points-based system. [3] > They built themselves into places that high skill immigrants seek, but that is more of a side effect than a competition Wherever there is choice, there is competition. 55% of billion dollar startups in the US have immigrant founders, employing an average of 1,200 employees each [4]. If these people don't come to the US and start companies, the US will feel the effects - even if they were just "side effects". [1] https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-points-based-immigration-system-policy-statement/the-uks-points-based-immigration-system-policy-statement https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-uks-points-ba... [2] https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/immigrate-canada/express-entry/check-score/crs-criteria.html https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/se... [3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAISE_Act https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAISE_Act [4] https://www.fosterglobal.com/blog/55-of-americas-billion-dollar-startups-have-an-immigrant-founder/ https://www.fosterglobal.com/blog/55-of-americas-billion-dol...
- estebarb 1y agoA common problem in latam and other geos is brain drain. Most of their best minds simply leave the country looking for better opportunities. That is impactful for the countries economies, the country invest a lot in people,but others see the benefits. During last century, USA has been the most benefited from that kind of immigration. Personally I think that this is a very short sighted decision by USA administration. But overall, I think that this will benefit the rest of the world. Maybe in a few years even USA will start exporting their best minds abroad!
- rayiner 1y ago> During last century, USA has been the most benefited from that kind of immigration This is inaccurate. The U.S. had a highly restrictionist immigration system from 1921-1965. The foreign born population dropped from almost 15% to under 5% by 1970. During that time, the U.S. had a small number of highly skilled immigrants, such as German scientists fleeing the Nazi regime. You’re talking about a very small number of truly exceptional people. A $100k/year fee is not going to shut down this kind of immigration.
- estebarb 1y agoBetween 1921 and 1965, about 9.6 million people were admitted as lawful permanent residents. That's not what I'd call a "very small" or "highly restricted" inflow. Source: DHS Yearbook, https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook/2019/table1#table-data-heading https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook/2019/table1...
- rayiner 1y agoYou can see the restriction easily on a chart: https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/annual-number-of-us-legal-permanent-residents https://www.migrationpolicy.org/programs/data-hub/charts/ann... We have been around 1 million per year for decades. If we still had that policy, adjusted for population you’re talking about cutting legal immigration by one-third to one-half. And that’s not counting a large increase in “gray market” legal immigration (TPS, asylum, etc.)
- ekm2 1y agoHow many people on here can truly say that they were considering between two different countries. That doesn’t happen at scale. Mmmh...How about four countries?US,UK,Canada &South Africa. As a student,though
- rinon 1y agoBecause of our historical strength. If we drive people away, that just makes room for other contenders. How is that smart?
- deleted 1y ago[deleted]
- jacquesm 1y agoOnly two?
- victor106 1y ago>There is a global competition for coming to Western Europe, Canada, and the US. As someone who lived in all three geographies and interacted with immigrants who lived in there, here is my raw take:- Western Europe:- Love it and people are so nice but they are also (I am sorry to say) racist. Proof:- How many immigrant CEO's do you see from companies based in Western Europe? The top 4 largest tech companies in the US have two indian CEO's for more than 10 years now. Canada:- Super nice and immigrant friendly more than the US, but the size of the country (approx 10% of the US) doesn't have the financial/economic/social infrastructure that is needed to support a large number of immigrants. Also tech salaries are miserable compared to the US US:- For all its faults, US is truly the only country where immigrants looking for a better future can immigrate and assimilate into. For how long this lasts remains to be seen but I don't think that is going to change anytime soon.
- decremental 1y ago[dead]
- vvrm 1y agoFor FAANG engineers this will likely mean moving to Vancouver, Zurich or Singapore with their job, salary, rsus and taxes.
- fastball 1y agoThe competition isn't for labor, it is for net productivity. These are not the same thing. As anyone who has ever worked on a team can tell you, "more team members" absolutely does not equate to a more productive team. In fact we have a plethora of phrases and anecdotes which indicate the opposite is often true.
- wrt271Ja 1y agoCompanies are laying off people, so there is no competition for labor.
- tnel77 1y agoI suspect the very best engineers will be worth every penny of that $100k/yr and the amount of abuse will drop. There is the very real risk that companies will move to outsource more roles, but I will personally be boycotting them.
- vasilipupkin 1y agovery real risk ? it's a certainty not a risk.
- tnel77 1y agoIt isn’t?
- vasilipupkin 1y agoit isn't a risk, it is a certainty that companies will off shore more as a result of this.
- tnel77 1y agoThat is their right. It is our right and, I’d argue, our duty to boycott them.
- zerosizedweasle 1y agoYou think the US government will really allow that? You think they're gonna do this and then just let them outsource?
- karakot 1y agoThere is no way around it, you either outsource or lose (and they already outsourced almost all factories). Companies will move HQs to India and "outsource" some operations to the US.
- losteric 1y agoI’m incredulous you’d expect otherwise? This is clearly pandering favor with a certain demographic, in a way that didn’t upset the big money going to Maralargo. Why would they intervene with outsourcing the jobs instead of H1Bs? And more importantly, how?
- trhway 1y agoIt could have been a smart move if it were staged like this : 20K H1Bs with $30K fee 20K H1Bs with $60K fee 20K H1Bs with $100K fee unlimited H1Bs with $200K Any oversubscription in a category - you have a choice of either going through lottery or paying for the higher category.
- shagie 1y agoThat classification already exists. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B-dependent_employer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H-1B-dependent_employer ... and is done for these employers already (though not to the level that is being proposed) Public Law 114-113 (December 2015 to September 2025) : additional fee of $4000 Public Law 114–113, part of the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2016, imposed a fee of $4,000 on H-1B petitions and $4,500 on L-1A and L-1B petitions. The additional H-1B fees would apply to all petitions postmarked on or after December 18, 2015, and until September 30, 2025.
- mikert89 1y agoA huge reason that no one can afford anything is because of wage suppresion
- marcusverus 1y agoYep. There is a huge amount of American talent wallowing in low-level, dead end jobs because corporations have been actively incentivized to hire cheap, captive foreign labor rather than foster American talent. I am absolutely thrilled to witness this return to sanity.
- dzhiurgis 1y agoFor tech jobs a lot of offshoring will happen. Been working for US for last 8 years. It’s great.
- gnulinux996 1y ago> If the US loses its massive lead By US you mean corporate America? What if they maintain that massive lead on the backs of the US citizens? The exploitation of the US worker needs to end, if the company does not have 100K to bring in global talent then that company cannot "massively lead" in any domain and the "talent" is neither global nor talented.
- vasilipupkin 1y agoand so who owns the shares of "corporate america"? Newflash: Teachers' and firefighters' and cops' pensions are all invested in "corporate america". As well as pensions of union workers. As well as 401ks of all the other middle class people. Come on. "the exploitation of American worker" ? American workers have one of the richest standards of living in the world.
- cjbgkagh 1y agoThat’s what they said to secure the too big to fail bailouts which only solidified the moral hazard and made things worse.
- gnulinux996 1y agoOh now they care about teachers, firefighters, cops and puppies? Is that what this H1B is about? > American workers have one of the richest standards of living in the world. What are you even talking about? Being able to hold more tokens that can buyback the products of the asset class does not make for a "rich standard of living". Having to run gofundme's for medical care is not "rich standard of living". Them trembling on every unscheduled meeting with their boss is not "rich standard of living" The American workers' existence is sad.
- vasilipupkin 1y agoif you are going to argue that Americans don't have a rich standard of living, that is just an absurd argument. It's obvious to anyone who has lived or worked somewhere else.
- 1y ago
- mc32 1y agoDo you think those countries will be nice and invite us to be reverse "H1Bs" into their countries or will they keep the pie to themselves? If they think like you they'll invite the whole world talent pool into their countries.
- ttsemih 1y agoProbably you can go most countries
- epistasis 1y agoThe US has the nicest biggest pie in the world. Why would somebody move to a place with less opportunity? The opportunity created in the US is due to the concentration of talent, high productivity, and extensive networks of people creating innovation that inflated the pie even larger. Go ahead and move to any of those countries from the US, it's prettt easy, because everybody wants to be like the US! The only possibly better passport was a Canadian one! Something deeply sick has infected the US when we no longer recognize the source of the wealth of our nation. Nobody could touch us. At least until we started to intentionally make ourselves poorer.
- gverrilla 1y ago> because everybody wants to be like the US fake news
- intermerda 1y agoYou're applying economics when the problem is fundamentally racial. Trump has exposed the dark underbelly of the US. The comments in this thread as well as elsewhere just show the fundamental lack of empathy - which I know is a made up word unless someone with the "right" political leanings was harmed. Of course the visa is a privilege and there are tons of abuses associated with it. There are methodical ways of going about it and actually fixing the problem. Slapping a $100k fee with unclear language and no heads-up uproots while uprooting lives of so many people have lived in the country for years if not decades, maintained legal status, and paid taxes including Social Security and Medicare is "a smart move" according to the top comment. But we all know what the real problem is. If majority of the H-1B visa holders had the right skin color, they would be welcome with open arms regardless of any abuse of the system. Just like how South African refugees are welcome while other those from the "wrong" kind of country are not. "If you can convince the lowest white man he's better than the best colored man, he won't notice you're picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he'll empty his pockets for you." ― Lyndon B. Johnson
- rayiner 1y agoIt has nothing to do with “skin color,” but economics, culture, and worldview. “The safety of a republic depends essentially on the energy of a common National sentiment; on a uniformity of principles and habits; on the exemption of the citizens from foreign bias, and prejudice; and on that love of country which will almost invariably be found to be closely connected with birth, education and family. The opinion advanced in the Notes on Virginia is undoubtedly correct, that foreigners will generally be apt to bring with them attachments to the persons they have left behind; to the country of their nativity, and to its particular customs and manners. They will also entertain opinions on government congenial with those under which they have lived, or if they should be led hither from a preference to ours, how extremely unlikely is it that they will bring with them that temperate love of liberty, so essential to real republicanism? There may as to particular individuals, and at particular times, be occasional exceptions to these remarks, yet such is the general rule.” — Alexander Hamilton
- 8note 1y ago
- xbar 1y agoThat is a real slippery slope you made from $1000 H1-B visas. It is nonsense.
- cryptonector 1y ago> This is very short term thinking The EO expires in 12 months, so, yes, it's short-term. Maybe in a year the administration will rethink things. Maybe sooner.