3 ms·

> The decision is hiring in the US (visa or citizen) versus hiring abroad. True, but there’s a balance that employers have to maintain to get some in-state adv

by nis0s 1y ago

> The decision is hiring in the US (visa or citizen) versus hiring abroad. True, but there’s a balance that employers have to maintain to get some in-state advantages from local or state governments for job creation. That said, it makes more sense for America to get trainers or professors for niche subfields than actual workers so you can create homegrown talent, not sure why that isn’t done more.

alephnerd 1y ago
> but there’s a balance that employers have to maintain to get some in-state advantages from local or state governments for job creation True! The issue is local, state, and federal governments gives limited benefits compared to CEE countries, Israel, India, and others who roll the red carpet with multi-year tax holidays, subsidizes, and targeted hiring pipelines. > makes more sense for America to get trainers or professors for niche subfields than actual workers so you can create homegrown talent How? They overwhelmingly came on H1Bs as well, not O-1s. This is why this is such a stupid approach, and is absolutely showing the hallmarks of a Stephen Miller policy. Interestingly, this seems to have overshadowed the Trump Gold Card and Platinum Card announcements (which part of me thinks was part of the reason this announcement happened).
- porridgeraisin 1y ago
  > such a stupid approach What do you think of this alternate one? Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately. This removes the "unfair" aspect of h1bs being cheaper to hire.
  - alephnerd 1y ago
    > Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately Exactly. That solves the problem of consultancies and firms trying to abuse the H1B program as indentured servitude, and makes it easier for those in that kind of a situation to demand a higher salary. In product companies, someone on a work visa is paid comparable to an American, and bringing a foreign nation on site is already a bit of a wash savings wise. That said, with this announcement the ship has sailed, because having to spend $100k per year per H1B filing on top of the salary premium of hiring in the US just made opening a GCC/offshoring even more cost effective. For the top 20% of talent in CEE and India, you're already seeing TC break that $100k mark. The issue is there just aren't enough people in the US in certain subdomains with the right skills. I blame CS programs over the last 10 years for that by trying to overleverage "Leetcode" and "Fullstack" style courses and increasingly reducing specialized courses. A CSE major at a decent program in India or the CEE will have studied algorithms, digital signals processing, OS internals, and computer architecture along with the option to take further electives in a specialization of their choice (ML, Security, Systems, HCI, etc). They are much more "well-rounded" for technical roles because they will have dipped their toes in 2-3 technical subfields and did their "data structures" equivalent. In my subfield (cybersecurity) it's been almost impossible to find the right talent at scale of OS internals, systems programming, CompArch, and CUDA+Infiniband experience in the US for the past 5-7 years. As such, there is a generational skill gap, because there is a gap of people who should be mid-career now but don't exist domestically. And it's not something a "bootcamp" can solve either. The reality is, if we need to spend 2-3 years retraining people domestically with table stake skills like algos, OS internals, and other courses that are expected in a CS major, we should also dramatically reduce salaries for those employees, becuase I can't justify paying $150k for a bootcamp grad. At $50k-80k the math works out to only hire domestically with that level of skill while also offering training like the ASU BSCS program.
    - porridgeraisin 1y ago
      I'm seeing a mismatch between what was said in news articles and by the govt officials as well as trump in the video, and what is written in the official order[1] Considering your background, what is your take on this? Many folks I know who are on H1-B don't know what to believe [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain-nonimmigrant-workers/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/rest...
      - alephnerd 1y ago
        We are only talking about Software - other industries like nursing and academia are way more severely impacted. If you're on an H1B doing basics terraform scripting or maintenance work, your job is already in the process of being automated using a CodeGen tool being monitored by a senior engineer (be they located domestically or abroad). If you a new H1B employee working at GCP's Sunnyvale office, you will most eventually be transferred to an office in India, Canada, and maybe the UK. In neither case is new grad and early career hiring within the US going to pick up. And if you have been unemployed for an extended period (more than 6 months), well I'd recommend reading PG's article about building "Ramen Profitable" startups. ----------- The H1B market in software is bimodal with mass consultancies like WITCH (India), EPAM (Eastern Europe), and Globant (LatAm) who are overwhelmingly screwed because their business model is messed up, and you have people on an H1B who are basically working at a FAANG or FAANG equivalent and who are earning the same salary as citizens - these companies already began the process of offshoring 3-5 years ago when remote work kicked in because much of the CEE and India began giving massive federal and state industrial subsidizes to open offshore offices in IT Parks (and had been doing so for decades). Short term it's a headache for companies with a large OPT-to-H1B pipeline and they will most likely do mass layoffs or push people to work at GCCs abroad - just like during COVID's early days. Long term, this only continues to incentivize offshoring because now you have a tangible upfront cost you can project and model on ($300k per employee minimum) and compare against the Section 174 impact. My bigger question would be - if you are an H1B who was born (not necessarily a national) in China or India, why would you even make a large investment like a house or a condo in the US? Best case you are already looking at a 15-20 year backlog just to get a Green Card, and the cost to keep someone on an H1B in the US is a wash compared to hiring abroad if your salary is breaking the 6 figure mark.

by nis0s 1y ago

alephnerd 1y ago

> but there’s a balance that employers have to maintain to get some in-state advantages from local or state governments for job creation True! The issue is local, state, and federal governments gives limited benefits compared to CEE countries, Israel, India, and others who roll the red carpet with multi-year tax holidays, subsidizes, and targeted hiring pipelines. > makes more sense for America to get trainers or professors for niche subfields than actual workers so you can create homegrown talent How? They overwhelmingly came on H1Bs as well, not O-1s. This is why this is such a stupid approach, and is absolutely showing the hallmarks of a Stephen Miller policy. Interestingly, this seems to have overshadowed the Trump Gold Card and Platinum Card announcements (which part of me thinks was part of the reason this announcement happened).

porridgeraisin 1y ago
> such a stupid approach What do you think of this alternate one? Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately. This removes the "unfair" aspect of h1bs being cheaper to hire.
- alephnerd 1y ago
  > Don't make H1-B employer-specific. That way, they automatically have to pay market rates to the guy since otherwise you would sponsor his entry and he'd switch to a market rate employer immediately Exactly. That solves the problem of consultancies and firms trying to abuse the H1B program as indentured servitude, and makes it easier for those in that kind of a situation to demand a higher salary. In product companies, someone on a work visa is paid comparable to an American, and bringing a foreign nation on site is already a bit of a wash savings wise. That said, with this announcement the ship has sailed, because having to spend $100k per year per H1B filing on top of the salary premium of hiring in the US just made opening a GCC/offshoring even more cost effective. For the top 20% of talent in CEE and India, you're already seeing TC break that $100k mark. The issue is there just aren't enough people in the US in certain subdomains with the right skills. I blame CS programs over the last 10 years for that by trying to overleverage "Leetcode" and "Fullstack" style courses and increasingly reducing specialized courses. A CSE major at a decent program in India or the CEE will have studied algorithms, digital signals processing, OS internals, and computer architecture along with the option to take further electives in a specialization of their choice (ML, Security, Systems, HCI, etc). They are much more "well-rounded" for technical roles because they will have dipped their toes in 2-3 technical subfields and did their "data structures" equivalent. In my subfield (cybersecurity) it's been almost impossible to find the right talent at scale of OS internals, systems programming, CompArch, and CUDA+Infiniband experience in the US for the past 5-7 years. As such, there is a generational skill gap, because there is a gap of people who should be mid-career now but don't exist domestically. And it's not something a "bootcamp" can solve either. The reality is, if we need to spend 2-3 years retraining people domestically with table stake skills like algos, OS internals, and other courses that are expected in a CS major, we should also dramatically reduce salaries for those employees, becuase I can't justify paying $150k for a bootcamp grad. At $50k-80k the math works out to only hire domestically with that level of skill while also offering training like the ASU BSCS program.
  - porridgeraisin 1y ago
    I'm seeing a mismatch between what was said in news articles and by the govt officials as well as trump in the video, and what is written in the official order[1] Considering your background, what is your take on this? Many folks I know who are on H1-B don't know what to believe [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/restriction-on-entry-of-certain-nonimmigrant-workers/ https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/09/rest...
    - alephnerd 1y ago
      We are only talking about Software - other industries like nursing and academia are way more severely impacted. If you're on an H1B doing basics terraform scripting or maintenance work, your job is already in the process of being automated using a CodeGen tool being monitored by a senior engineer (be they located domestically or abroad). If you a new H1B employee working at GCP's Sunnyvale office, you will most eventually be transferred to an office in India, Canada, and maybe the UK. In neither case is new grad and early career hiring within the US going to pick up. And if you have been unemployed for an extended period (more than 6 months), well I'd recommend reading PG's article about building "Ramen Profitable" startups. ----------- The H1B market in software is bimodal with mass consultancies like WITCH (India), EPAM (Eastern Europe), and Globant (LatAm) who are overwhelmingly screwed because their business model is messed up, and you have people on an H1B who are basically working at a FAANG or FAANG equivalent and who are earning the same salary as citizens - these companies already began the process of offshoring 3-5 years ago when remote work kicked in because much of the CEE and India began giving massive federal and state industrial subsidizes to open offshore offices in IT Parks (and had been doing so for decades). Short term it's a headache for companies with a large OPT-to-H1B pipeline and they will most likely do mass layoffs or push people to work at GCCs abroad - just like during COVID's early days. Long term, this only continues to incentivize offshoring because now you have a tangible upfront cost you can project and model on ($300k per employee minimum) and compare against the Section 174 impact. My bigger question would be - if you are an H1B who was born (not necessarily a national) in China or India, why would you even make a large investment like a house or a condo in the US? Best case you are already looking at a 15-20 year backlog just to get a Green Card, and the cost to keep someone on an H1B in the US is a wash compared to hiring abroad if your salary is breaking the 6 figure mark.