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Japan wasn't "destroyed" - they fell into the same trap that most emerging countries fall into eventually. Massive economic growth -> people become more wealthy

by jcfrei 1y ago

Japan wasn't "destroyed" - they fell into the same trap that most emerging countries fall into eventually. Massive economic growth -> people become more wealthy -> they put it all into real estate -> real estate market collapses -> people are disillusioned, stop spending and growth crumbles. Happens to many nations that try to enter the group of high-income economies, same with China. The problem is that people don't trust any other asset besides housing to put their savings in. That creates a bubble and a lack of private investment in other parts of the economy.

dworks 1y ago
look up the plaza accord. It led to a bubble that eventually burst and an uncompetitive export industry as the JPY doubled.
- jcfrei 1y ago
  Two sides of the same coin. The yen appreciation didn't change the trade deficit the US had with Japan substantially. Japan's own actions after the plaza accord (very loose monetary policy) lead to the asset bubble I described. That's because domestic consumption was weak and everyone used excess savings for the housing market - rather than buying more goods domestically. Which lead to the bubble I described.
  - dworks 1y ago
    If you read the Wikipedia article more carefully you would have understood that the loose monetary policy was an effect of the Plaza Accord, hence why I mentioned it.
csomar 1y ago
I kinda feel their bubble burst would have happened anyway but they wouldn’t treat themselves to a plaza accord kind of deal.
paganel 1y ago
China is ten times bigger than Japan was at the time, a big enough difference in quantity has its own quality. China also has a much easier/cheaper access to natural resources compared to Japan, both internally and from external partners that are shunned by the US (think Russia or Iran).
- alephnerd 1y ago
  The median Chinese in 2025 is also much poorer (edit: and much older [2] and less educated [3]) than the median Japanese in the 1980s or 1990s. China has built a successful tech pipeline, but it doesn't translate to significant prosperity in a country where median disposable household incomes are around $400/mo [0] - much lower than their peers in Thailand [1]. And China's HDI only caught up with Thailand's over the past 2-3 years, and China's GDP per capita has been stagnant for 4 financial years now. This does NOT imply Chinese collapse, but it does highlight real issues that exist with the China story. From a power projection perspective, China has capabilities that very few nations have and can tie with the US, but that has not translated to mass prosperity in the way growth in 1970s and 1980s Japan did. It is still an open question about whether or not China "Japanifies" or not. China is now at a crossroads, similar to what South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia faced in the 1990s. As long as the Xi admin remains avowedly opposed to what he termed "Welfarism" ("福利主义典范国家，中产塌陷、贫富分化、社会撕裂、民粹喧嚣，这不乏警示— 防止落入“福利主义”养懒汉陷阱"), Chinese growth will sputter. [0] - https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202501/t20250124_1958443.html https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202501/t202501... [1] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023... [2] - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/median-age https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/median-age [3] - https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/table/msch/CHN+JPN/?levels=1+4&years=2022+1990&interpolation=0&extrapolation=0 https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/table/msch/CHN+JPN/?levels=1+...
  - paganel 1y ago
    > The median Chinese in 2025 is also much poorer than the median Japanese in the 1980s or 1990s. Yes, and that’s a big plus for China, it means that there’s still room for productive growth. The also means that the price of labor will still continue to be competitive.

by jcfrei 1y ago

dworks 1y ago

look up the plaza accord. It led to a bubble that eventually burst and an uncompetitive export industry as the JPY doubled.

jcfrei 1y ago
Two sides of the same coin. The yen appreciation didn't change the trade deficit the US had with Japan substantially. Japan's own actions after the plaza accord (very loose monetary policy) lead to the asset bubble I described. That's because domestic consumption was weak and everyone used excess savings for the housing market - rather than buying more goods domestically. Which lead to the bubble I described.
- dworks 1y ago
  If you read the Wikipedia article more carefully you would have understood that the loose monetary policy was an effect of the Plaza Accord, hence why I mentioned it.

csomar 1y ago

I kinda feel their bubble burst would have happened anyway but they wouldn’t treat themselves to a plaza accord kind of deal.

paganel 1y ago

China is ten times bigger than Japan was at the time, a big enough difference in quantity has its own quality. China also has a much easier/cheaper access to natural resources compared to Japan, both internally and from external partners that are shunned by the US (think Russia or Iran).

alephnerd 1y ago
The median Chinese in 2025 is also much poorer (edit: and much older [2] and less educated [3]) than the median Japanese in the 1980s or 1990s. China has built a successful tech pipeline, but it doesn't translate to significant prosperity in a country where median disposable household incomes are around $400/mo [0] - much lower than their peers in Thailand [1]. And China's HDI only caught up with Thailand's over the past 2-3 years, and China's GDP per capita has been stagnant for 4 financial years now. This does NOT imply Chinese collapse, but it does highlight real issues that exist with the China story. From a power projection perspective, China has capabilities that very few nations have and can tie with the US, but that has not translated to mass prosperity in the way growth in 1970s and 1980s Japan did. It is still an open question about whether or not China "Japanifies" or not. China is now at a crossroads, similar to what South Korea, Thailand, and Malaysia faced in the 1990s. As long as the Xi admin remains avowedly opposed to what he termed "Welfarism" ("福利主义典范国家，中产塌陷、贫富分化、社会撕裂、民粹喧嚣，这不乏警示— 防止落入“福利主义”养懒汉陷阱"), Chinese growth will sputter. [0] - https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202501/t20250124_1958443.html https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202501/t202501... [1] - https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/20231018103954_32528.pdf https://www.nso.go.th/nsoweb/storage/survey_detail/2023/2023... [2] - https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/median-age https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/median-age [3] - https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/table/msch/CHN+JPN/?levels=1+4&years=2022+1990&interpolation=0&extrapolation=0 https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/table/msch/CHN+JPN/?levels=1+...
- paganel 1y ago
  > The median Chinese in 2025 is also much poorer than the median Japanese in the 1980s or 1990s. Yes, and that’s a big plus for China, it means that there’s still room for productive growth. The also means that the price of labor will still continue to be competitive.