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> I'm afraid the latest spate of "recognizing the state of Palestine" is not, in fact, a sign of coming relief for the people there, but rather a spigot to reli
by toast0 1y ago
> I'm afraid the latest spate of "recognizing the state of Palestine" is not, in fact, a sign of coming relief for the people there, but rather a spigot to relieve domestic pressure to engage in substantive actions (sanctions, pressuring the US and other suppliers of arms to engage in sanctions, let alone sending peacekeepers or no-fly zones).
I don't think recognition as a State would really change anything. If at least one of the permanent members of the UN Security Council will veto everything that comes up, the UN won't effectively intervene in the situation. Military intervention in such a case is unlikely, unless at least one permanent member is willing to join an intervention coalition. Looking at conflicts the US has been involved in, it usually lines up around the lines with US maybe with their usual friends vs Locals or Locals and Russia and friends. The only one I found where the pattern was when France started sending arms to Nicaragua while the US was supporting the other side [1]. Unless Russia or China wants to support the Palestinians militarily, or the US decides not to no longer support Israel militarily, there's not much chance of outside intervention here.
Given the outside countries can't effectively intervene, recognizing the state of Palestine at least sends a message, that maybe hopefully influences the US?
[1] https://www.csmonitor.com/1982/0715/071566.html https://www.csmonitor.com/1982/0715/071566.html
- MangoToupe 1y agoThere's not really much of a state to recognize in the first place, is there? Maybe this would have made a big difference 30 years ago, but now?
- toast0 1y agoIf it were recognized as a state, it would need a lot of outside help. But if there was agreement on the territory and acknowledement of its sovereignty, an effective state could be worked toward in ways that aren't feasible when under seige or even simply occupation. 30 years ago, conditions for peace and the start of a newly recognized state seemed better, yes. But the situation hasn't resolved itself by being left as-is either.
- dotancohen 1y ago[flagged]
- acdha 1y agoIt seems relevant that in the mid-90s the Israeli hard right reacted to the possibly of peaceful by engaging in some highly effective political assassinations which successfully restarted the cycle of violence, setting the stage for Netanyahu to prevent the two state solution. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_of_the_Patriarchs_massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cave_of_the_Patriarchs_massacr... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Yitzhak_Rabin https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Yitzhak_Rabin
- dotancohen 1y agoBy that measure we could identify the decades of Palestinian attacks on Israeli civilians as preventing a two-state, one-state, or any other solution.
- raxxorraxor 1y agoChina and Russia would prefer to turn Israel away from the US and more or less fortify their influence in the Middle East. Much more rewarding.