3 ms·

By "economy", I presume you mean things like real estate speculation. Japan is a good example of a country where the population has been in steady decline for

By "economy", I presume you mean things like real estate speculation. Japan is a good example of a country where the population has been in steady decline for a long time now. The economy has stagnated, but it has not collapsed. The more worrisome part of what we're seeing in Japan is the total hollowing out of the countryside as the young systematically pack into the three large cities that increasingly dominate all economic activity, namely Tokyo, Osaka and Fukuoka.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Why is rural depopulation worrisome? Young people, as one would expect, want to be located near other young people and jobs.
- bahmboo 1y ago
  Because that's where the food comes from.
  - amanaplanacanal 1y ago
    Are they producing less food? Migration from the country to the city has been going on for a long time. You just don't need as many people to produce food as you used to.
- pnw 1y ago
  Increasing the high-density urban population leads to even lower fertility. "We find a robust association between density and fertility over time, both within- and between-countries. That is, increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates, controlling for a variety of socioeconomic, socioecological, geographic, population-based, and female empowerment variables." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    This is inevitable. The Steep Curve to Peak Urban - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45265342 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45265342 - September 2025 > Cities are engines of productivity, trade, innovation and prosperity. We’ve built, re-built and expanded in cities because they bring us closer, offer us greater access to jobs, services, ideas, opportunities and experiences. They make us overall wealthier and healthier, as long as we invest in addressing the side effects and unintended consequences of urbanization. https://population.un.org/wpp/ https://population.un.org/wpp/
- coldtea 1y ago
  These young people will be middle aged people located near old people, with a huge average age - and the flee to the cities will increase that.
coldtea 1y ago
>Japan is a good example of a country where the population has been in steady decline for a long time now. The economy has stagnated, but it has not collapsed. Give it time. Japan only crossed the point of deaths > births about 20 years ago, which was also the time it reached peak population (as recorded by a census around that time). Give it 20 years for the peak kids to grow above 40 and it will be a dystopia.

toomuchtodo 1y ago

Why is rural depopulation worrisome? Young people, as one would expect, want to be located near other young people and jobs.

bahmboo 1y ago
Because that's where the food comes from.
- amanaplanacanal 1y ago
  Are they producing less food? Migration from the country to the city has been going on for a long time. You just don't need as many people to produce food as you used to.
pnw 1y ago
Increasing the high-density urban population leads to even lower fertility. "We find a robust association between density and fertility over time, both within- and between-countries. That is, increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates, controlling for a variety of socioeconomic, socioecological, geographic, population-based, and female empowerment variables." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  This is inevitable. The Steep Curve to Peak Urban - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45265342 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45265342 - September 2025 > Cities are engines of productivity, trade, innovation and prosperity. We’ve built, re-built and expanded in cities because they bring us closer, offer us greater access to jobs, services, ideas, opportunities and experiences. They make us overall wealthier and healthier, as long as we invest in addressing the side effects and unintended consequences of urbanization. https://population.un.org/wpp/ https://population.un.org/wpp/
coldtea 1y ago
These young people will be middle aged people located near old people, with a huge average age - and the flee to the cities will increase that.

coldtea 1y ago

>Japan is a good example of a country where the population has been in steady decline for a long time now. The economy has stagnated, but it has not collapsed. Give it time. Japan only crossed the point of deaths > births about 20 years ago, which was also the time it reached peak population (as recorded by a census around that time). Give it 20 years for the peak kids to grow above 40 and it will be a dystopia.