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The economy depends on some level of growth, so if we can't accomplish that with a stable or shrinking population then it's gonna be a bad time for a while. ED

by dgunay 1y ago

The economy depends on some level of growth, so if we can't accomplish that with a stable or shrinking population then it's gonna be a bad time for a while. EDIT: I did not think I'd have to state this explicitly, but: yes, I am in fact talking about the capitalist economy the western world currently operates under growth = economic growth

mulmen 1y ago
The economy does not depend on population growth. It depends on productivity growth.
shadowgovt 1y ago
Why does the economy require growth? Biological systems can find equilibria, why can't an economy do the same?
- estimator7292 1y ago
  Because bigger number, obviously. All economies do not inherently rely on growth. It's just that capitalists have brainwashed themselves into believing capitalism is the only type of economy possible and that growth can go on without bound literally forever. It's exactly as stupid as it sounds.
  - cindyllm 1y ago
    [dead]
- ForHackernews 1y ago
  Capitalism requires growth. If your sales aren't growing your stock price goes down.
- coldtea 1y ago
  Economy in general doesnt require growth. The economy we were born into, the level of material production, business, amenities etc and how we run things, does. It can find an equilibrium at some point, but it will be blood and people who think they should have robot servants and food delivery wont like it. As for the time it will be achieving that equilibrium, it will be painful.
decimalenough 1y ago
By "economy", I presume you mean things like real estate speculation. Japan is a good example of a country where the population has been in steady decline for a long time now. The economy has stagnated, but it has not collapsed. The more worrisome part of what we're seeing in Japan is the total hollowing out of the countryside as the young systematically pack into the three large cities that increasingly dominate all economic activity, namely Tokyo, Osaka and Fukuoka.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  Why is rural depopulation worrisome? Young people, as one would expect, want to be located near other young people and jobs.
  - bahmboo 1y ago
    Because that's where the food comes from.
    - amanaplanacanal 1y ago
      Are they producing less food? Migration from the country to the city has been going on for a long time. You just don't need as many people to produce food as you used to.
  - pnw 1y ago
    Increasing the high-density urban population leads to even lower fertility. "We find a robust association between density and fertility over time, both within- and between-countries. That is, increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates, controlling for a variety of socioeconomic, socioecological, geographic, population-based, and female empowerment variables." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/
    - toomuchtodo 1y ago
      This is inevitable. The Steep Curve to Peak Urban - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45265342 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45265342 - September 2025 > Cities are engines of productivity, trade, innovation and prosperity. We’ve built, re-built and expanded in cities because they bring us closer, offer us greater access to jobs, services, ideas, opportunities and experiences. They make us overall wealthier and healthier, as long as we invest in addressing the side effects and unintended consequences of urbanization. https://population.un.org/wpp/ https://population.un.org/wpp/
dwattttt 1y ago
The economic paradigm that evolved during the exponential portion of population growth depends on it. It's not the only model that can possibly exist, and it looks like we'll be meeting new ones.
wavemode 1y ago
"bad time" is relative. Perhaps the lifestyles of the West are simply fundamentally unsustainable.

by dgunay 1y ago

mulmen 1y ago

The economy does not depend on population growth. It depends on productivity growth.

shadowgovt 1y ago

Why does the economy require growth? Biological systems can find equilibria, why can't an economy do the same?

estimator7292 1y ago
Because bigger number, obviously. All economies do not inherently rely on growth. It's just that capitalists have brainwashed themselves into believing capitalism is the only type of economy possible and that growth can go on without bound literally forever. It's exactly as stupid as it sounds.
- cindyllm 1y ago
  [dead]
ForHackernews 1y ago
Capitalism requires growth. If your sales aren't growing your stock price goes down.
coldtea 1y ago
Economy in general doesnt require growth. The economy we were born into, the level of material production, business, amenities etc and how we run things, does. It can find an equilibrium at some point, but it will be blood and people who think they should have robot servants and food delivery wont like it. As for the time it will be achieving that equilibrium, it will be painful.

decimalenough 1y ago

By "economy", I presume you mean things like real estate speculation. Japan is a good example of a country where the population has been in steady decline for a long time now. The economy has stagnated, but it has not collapsed. The more worrisome part of what we're seeing in Japan is the total hollowing out of the countryside as the young systematically pack into the three large cities that increasingly dominate all economic activity, namely Tokyo, Osaka and Fukuoka.

toomuchtodo 1y ago
Why is rural depopulation worrisome? Young people, as one would expect, want to be located near other young people and jobs.
- bahmboo 1y ago
  Because that's where the food comes from.
  - amanaplanacanal 1y ago
    Are they producing less food? Migration from the country to the city has been going on for a long time. You just don't need as many people to produce food as you used to.
- pnw 1y ago
  Increasing the high-density urban population leads to even lower fertility. "We find a robust association between density and fertility over time, both within- and between-countries. That is, increases in population density are associated with declines in fertility rates, controlling for a variety of socioeconomic, socioecological, geographic, population-based, and female empowerment variables." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34914431/
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    This is inevitable. The Steep Curve to Peak Urban - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45265342 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45265342 - September 2025 > Cities are engines of productivity, trade, innovation and prosperity. We’ve built, re-built and expanded in cities because they bring us closer, offer us greater access to jobs, services, ideas, opportunities and experiences. They make us overall wealthier and healthier, as long as we invest in addressing the side effects and unintended consequences of urbanization. https://population.un.org/wpp/ https://population.un.org/wpp/

dwattttt 1y ago

The economic paradigm that evolved during the exponential portion of population growth depends on it. It's not the only model that can possibly exist, and it looks like we'll be meeting new ones.

wavemode 1y ago

"bad time" is relative. Perhaps the lifestyles of the West are simply fundamentally unsustainable.