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Something that isn't spoken about enough is that in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized due to reductions in electricity usa

Something that isn't spoken about enough is that in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized due to reductions in electricity usage over time [1]. That link says 16% over, but the peak demand in the UK in 2024 was actually only 45MW [2], which I make more like a 30% reduction from the all-time peak. Because of this, it feels like we should already have enough transmission capacity in a decent part of the network to cope with a re-organisation of where the sources and sinks are placed. Yes, we might need to do some work in the last mile, especially if V2G takes off, but things aren't nearly as bad as one might naively assume. [1] https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-stories/can-grid-cope-extra-demand-electric-cars https://www.nationalgrid.com/stories/journey-to-net-zero-sto... [2] https://www.neso.energy/news/britains-electricity-explained-2024-review https://www.neso.energy/news/britains-electricity-explained-...

pjc50 1y ago
The trouble is the capacity is in the wrong place; the UK closed coal plants in (defunct) coalfields in the middle of the country, and built offshore wind farms which tend to be further north. There's plans for an offshore north-south connector to help with this.
- gnfargbl 1y ago
  True, but don't forget you can put BESS on the sites of the old coal plants: https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20240927-how-coal-fired-power-stations-are-being-turned-into-batteries https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20240927-how-coal-fired...
- dboreham 1y ago
  That connector goes underwater right where I grew up. I haven't visited mother for a few months but afaik they haven't begun digging yet.
oezi 1y ago
Electricity needs are expected to rise significantly as we convert heating and transportation to electric.
- gnfargbl 1y ago
  Not as much as you might think: one of the links I gave suggests only an overall 10% increase if the entire country switches to EVs. I found another link suggesting a 25% average increase if we all switch to heat pumps -- still within what the grid is sized for already.
  - youngtaff 1y ago
    Heat Pumps will be the big driver but there’s a lot of spare electricity capacity over night in most European countries
JumpCrisscross 1y ago
> in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized Your sources really only apply to Britain and other deïndustrialising countries. American and European energy demand is rising due to electrification and AI.
- swiftcoder 1y ago
  How much of Europe is still electrifying? Or I suppose you mean migrating fossil fuel heating loads to electric?
  - JumpCrisscross 1y ago
    > migrating fossil fuel heating loads to electric? Yes.
- deleted 1y ago
  [deleted]
- gnfargbl 1y ago
  For Europe at least, measured numbers are flat or slightly falling: https://www.iea.org/regions/europe/electricity https://www.iea.org/regions/europe/electricity I accept that AI is likely to take us in the wrong direction for a while. (I don't think it will actually be that long, once people realise that more training isn't getting more results.)
  - ericd 1y ago
    In the US, iirc replacing combustion cars and heating with EVs and heat pumps are larger contributors - the inflation reduction act and various incentives have been pretty successful, and as a consequence, electricity demand has been growing much quicker recently than in the previous couple decades.
zokier 1y ago
In some parts of my country the grid provider has needed to restrict new industrial connections because the grid is hitting its limits. https://yle-fi.translate.goog/a/74-20138415?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://yle-fi.translate.goog/a/74-20138415?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x...
- gnfargbl 1y ago
  OK, but Finland has the lowest electricity prices in Europe and is pretty cold for most of the year. It makes sense that people want to put datacenters there.
jansan 1y ago
> peak demand in the UK in 2024 was actually only 45MW It was actually 1000 times that much.
- gnfargbl 1y ago
  Correct, thankyou: stupid error on my part. 45GW.
jandrese 1y ago
It depends. In a neighboring county they have effectively saturated the grid and had to put a hold on datacenter permits. AI has been undoing a bunch of the efficiency savings we worked hard for in the past 20-30 years.

pjc50 1y ago

The trouble is the capacity is in the wrong place; the UK closed coal plants in (defunct) coalfields in the middle of the country, and built offshore wind farms which tend to be further north. There's plans for an offshore north-south connector to help with this.

gnfargbl 1y ago
True, but don't forget you can put BESS on the sites of the old coal plants: https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20240927-how-coal-fired-power-stations-are-being-turned-into-batteries https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20240927-how-coal-fired...
dboreham 1y ago
That connector goes underwater right where I grew up. I haven't visited mother for a few months but afaik they haven't begun digging yet.

oezi 1y ago

Electricity needs are expected to rise significantly as we convert heating and transportation to electric.

gnfargbl 1y ago
Not as much as you might think: one of the links I gave suggests only an overall 10% increase if the entire country switches to EVs. I found another link suggesting a 25% average increase if we all switch to heat pumps -- still within what the grid is sized for already.
- youngtaff 1y ago
  Heat Pumps will be the big driver but there’s a lot of spare electricity capacity over night in most European countries

JumpCrisscross 1y ago

> in developed Western countries, grids are actually significantly oversized Your sources really only apply to Britain and other deïndustrialising countries. American and European energy demand is rising due to electrification and AI.

swiftcoder 1y ago
How much of Europe is still electrifying? Or I suppose you mean migrating fossil fuel heating loads to electric?
- JumpCrisscross 1y ago
  > migrating fossil fuel heating loads to electric? Yes.
deleted 1y ago
[deleted]
gnfargbl 1y ago
For Europe at least, measured numbers are flat or slightly falling: https://www.iea.org/regions/europe/electricity https://www.iea.org/regions/europe/electricity I accept that AI is likely to take us in the wrong direction for a while. (I don't think it will actually be that long, once people realise that more training isn't getting more results.)
- ericd 1y ago
  In the US, iirc replacing combustion cars and heating with EVs and heat pumps are larger contributors - the inflation reduction act and various incentives have been pretty successful, and as a consequence, electricity demand has been growing much quicker recently than in the previous couple decades.

zokier 1y ago

In some parts of my country the grid provider has needed to restrict new industrial connections because the grid is hitting its limits. https://yle-fi.translate.goog/a/74-20138415?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp https://yle-fi.translate.goog/a/74-20138415?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x...

gnfargbl 1y ago
OK, but Finland has the lowest electricity prices in Europe and is pretty cold for most of the year. It makes sense that people want to put datacenters there.

jansan 1y ago

> peak demand in the UK in 2024 was actually only 45MW It was actually 1000 times that much.

gnfargbl 1y ago
Correct, thankyou: stupid error on my part. 45GW.

jandrese 1y ago

It depends. In a neighboring county they have effectively saturated the grid and had to put a hold on datacenter permits. AI has been undoing a bunch of the efficiency savings we worked hard for in the past 20-30 years.