4 ms·

The thing is LFP or Sodium ion are both expected to have 5000+ useful cycles soon (or possibly even in production now). This means even if you use one full disc

The thing is LFP or Sodium ion are both expected to have 5000+ useful cycles soon (or possibly even in production now). This means even if you use one full discharge overnight , this is like 15+ years of life of the battery, although I suspect calendar degradation will be much faster. Higher the cycle life, lower the levelised cost of storage and this is what matters in my opinion. Best is to have some type of long term storage like a Diesel generator only for estimated 1-2 weeks of the year depending on location where it will be needed. I feel V2G with 3 days backup and a house low power mode which can be utilised in emergencies might solve even this issue. Oversizing solar to the extent possible for winter loads is also ideal because so far that does not seem to be the driving cost.

epistasis 1y ago
No, LFP is 8k-12k cycles, and sodium are expect to be 15k to perhaps 20k cycles. This is reflected in the manufacturer warranties, and many sources. Here's one: https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-the-deal-with-sodium-ion-batteries https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-the-deal-with-sodium-ion-batte...
- newyankee 1y ago
  that makes calendar aging the limiting factor even more. I feel that so many cycles can also aid in smoothing solar & wind (at turbine level) output and increase their utility. I feel that long term energy storage will be split between thermal and non thermal in interesting ways and the market for them will open up after first level of daily disruption
  - epistasis 1y ago
    20,000 daily cycles if 55 years. 10,000 daily cycles is 27 years. The expected usage case for these batteries is near daily usage. I hadn't really thought about thermal tech in such extreme terms until your comment, but to me it appears to be the tape storage of our times. There will always be a fair amount of infrastructure hidden that almost nobody knows about, but it's going to be dwarfed in active usage by HDDs or SDDs. The tech advantages really are that big for batters and other solid state energy tech over the moving parts thermal variety. Thermal tech hasn't had an upgrade like LTO-6 (or is it 7 now) and is pretty much at the end of its possible engineered capabilities, but batteries are just barely getting started on what they are capable of.
bob1029 1y ago
> Best is to have some type of long term storage like a Diesel generator LNG or propane would be far superior fuel types for long term standby generators. Periodically exercising a machine that runs on CH4 results in very minimal buildup on internal components. Liquid fuels are much dirtier and can also go bad. Diesel is used in situations where you can afford all of the crazy maintenance. It's worth the trade off if you can.
- seabrookmx 1y ago
  The maintenance difference isn't that large. Diesel in a good tank also lasts an extremely long time, unlike gasoline. Diesel engines are more thermally efficient so you get more electricity per unit of fuel burned. The tanks don't need to be under pressure or replaced nearly as often as those for propane either. This is why most hospitals, data centers etc. that aren't near a natural gas line use diesel generators not propane. Natural gas has the benefit that when piped in, you don't need storage at all.
  - prometheus76 1y ago
    If you have access to ethanol-free fuel, that basically eliminates gasoline "going bad". It's the ethanol that degenerates over time.
    - seabrookmx 1y ago
      I wouldn't say it "eliminates" it. Even without ethanol, gasoline still goes bad far faster than diesel. Gasoline is full of aromatic hydrocarbons that eventually will break down, and after a few years you're left with a brown stinky liquid. Up until a year ago where I live, Chevron 94 Octane was ethanol free. I had issues with older carbureted engines after leaving gas in them for ~2 years. With E10 I wouldn't dare go that long as it can be so corrosive.
  - themafia 1y ago
    I can fill diesel tanks myself if need be. I'm going to have a hell of a time with LPG.
jauntywundrkind 1y ago
The article here concludes with one year long cycle, of the 1MW battery. Not without exception; there's some draw down after dinner even on the charge up sunny months. But a couple kWh against a 1MW pack is not super super notable. If it were cycle count alone degrading battery it'd still be an almost 5000 year battery (before becoming a 0.8MW battery). As others are pointing out, we have stabilized chemistries even more, so 5k cycles is pretty low at this point.
Aurornis 1y ago
> Best is to have some type of long term storage like a Diesel generator only for estimated 1-2 weeks of the year depending on location where it will be needed. Unless you live in a location without much sunlight, it’s better to invest in a solar powered system with a transfer switch to go off grid. If you size the system appropriately it can recharge the battery by day during an outage and now you can operate off-grid for a very long time. Diesel generators come with maintenance overhead that adds up year over year. They also contribute nothing during normal times, as opposed to a solar install which can offset electricity costs or even earn money. If you live somewhere dark this is less helpful, though. Consumption also matters. Some people have eye-popping amounts of electricity consumption while other households get by with far less. The difference, including heating and cooling costs, is surprisingly large between the highest and lowest households.
- itsoktocry 1y ago
  >Diesel generators come with maintenance overhead that adds up year over year. A good diesel generator is going to need very little maintenance operating few hundred hours per year. Why do people talk about engines like they are unreliable? They are modern marvels.
  - toomuchtodo 1y ago
    I just replaced a residential condo building's fossil gas generator (Kohler 48RCLC), at a cost of ~$24k, because the association didn't perform the required maintenance on it. Yes, fossil generators can be reliable if you do the maintenance and you monitor to ensure they are doing a test run weekly/monthly under load. Lots of people don't. My Powerwall quietly sits there charged and waiting to be under load, and charges to full when storm mode is activated (or I activate it manually). It has a 10 year warranty, 15 years if part of a virtual power plant (which my storage participates in with the local utility). It requires no maintenance. I also received a 30% federal tax credit for the Powerwall, which the building will not receive for a generator.
    - westmeal 1y ago

epistasis 1y ago

No, LFP is 8k-12k cycles, and sodium are expect to be 15k to perhaps 20k cycles. This is reflected in the manufacturer warranties, and many sources. Here's one: https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-the-deal-with-sodium-ion-batteries https://www.volts.wtf/p/whats-the-deal-with-sodium-ion-batte...

newyankee 1y ago
that makes calendar aging the limiting factor even more. I feel that so many cycles can also aid in smoothing solar & wind (at turbine level) output and increase their utility. I feel that long term energy storage will be split between thermal and non thermal in interesting ways and the market for them will open up after first level of daily disruption
- epistasis 1y ago
  20,000 daily cycles if 55 years. 10,000 daily cycles is 27 years. The expected usage case for these batteries is near daily usage. I hadn't really thought about thermal tech in such extreme terms until your comment, but to me it appears to be the tape storage of our times. There will always be a fair amount of infrastructure hidden that almost nobody knows about, but it's going to be dwarfed in active usage by HDDs or SDDs. The tech advantages really are that big for batters and other solid state energy tech over the moving parts thermal variety. Thermal tech hasn't had an upgrade like LTO-6 (or is it 7 now) and is pretty much at the end of its possible engineered capabilities, but batteries are just barely getting started on what they are capable of.

bob1029 1y ago

> Best is to have some type of long term storage like a Diesel generator LNG or propane would be far superior fuel types for long term standby generators. Periodically exercising a machine that runs on CH4 results in very minimal buildup on internal components. Liquid fuels are much dirtier and can also go bad. Diesel is used in situations where you can afford all of the crazy maintenance. It's worth the trade off if you can.

seabrookmx 1y ago
The maintenance difference isn't that large. Diesel in a good tank also lasts an extremely long time, unlike gasoline. Diesel engines are more thermally efficient so you get more electricity per unit of fuel burned. The tanks don't need to be under pressure or replaced nearly as often as those for propane either. This is why most hospitals, data centers etc. that aren't near a natural gas line use diesel generators not propane. Natural gas has the benefit that when piped in, you don't need storage at all.
- prometheus76 1y ago
  If you have access to ethanol-free fuel, that basically eliminates gasoline "going bad". It's the ethanol that degenerates over time.
  - seabrookmx 1y ago
    I wouldn't say it "eliminates" it. Even without ethanol, gasoline still goes bad far faster than diesel. Gasoline is full of aromatic hydrocarbons that eventually will break down, and after a few years you're left with a brown stinky liquid. Up until a year ago where I live, Chevron 94 Octane was ethanol free. I had issues with older carbureted engines after leaving gas in them for ~2 years. With E10 I wouldn't dare go that long as it can be so corrosive.
- themafia 1y ago
  I can fill diesel tanks myself if need be. I'm going to have a hell of a time with LPG.

jauntywundrkind 1y ago

The article here concludes with one year long cycle, of the 1MW battery. Not without exception; there's some draw down after dinner even on the charge up sunny months. But a couple kWh against a 1MW pack is not super super notable. If it were cycle count alone degrading battery it'd still be an almost 5000 year battery (before becoming a 0.8MW battery). As others are pointing out, we have stabilized chemistries even more, so 5k cycles is pretty low at this point.

Aurornis 1y ago

> Best is to have some type of long term storage like a Diesel generator only for estimated 1-2 weeks of the year depending on location where it will be needed. Unless you live in a location without much sunlight, it’s better to invest in a solar powered system with a transfer switch to go off grid. If you size the system appropriately it can recharge the battery by day during an outage and now you can operate off-grid for a very long time. Diesel generators come with maintenance overhead that adds up year over year. They also contribute nothing during normal times, as opposed to a solar install which can offset electricity costs or even earn money. If you live somewhere dark this is less helpful, though. Consumption also matters. Some people have eye-popping amounts of electricity consumption while other households get by with far less. The difference, including heating and cooling costs, is surprisingly large between the highest and lowest households.

itsoktocry 1y ago
>Diesel generators come with maintenance overhead that adds up year over year. A good diesel generator is going to need very little maintenance operating few hundred hours per year. Why do people talk about engines like they are unreliable? They are modern marvels.
- toomuchtodo 1y ago
  I just replaced a residential condo building's fossil gas generator (Kohler 48RCLC), at a cost of ~$24k, because the association didn't perform the required maintenance on it. Yes, fossil generators can be reliable if you do the maintenance and you monitor to ensure they are doing a test run weekly/monthly under load. Lots of people don't. My Powerwall quietly sits there charged and waiting to be under load, and charges to full when storm mode is activated (or I activate it manually). It has a 10 year warranty, 15 years if part of a virtual power plant (which my storage participates in with the local utility). It requires no maintenance. I also received a 30% federal tax credit for the Powerwall, which the building will not receive for a generator.
  - westmeal 1y ago