4 ms·

For all of its current very high profile issues of uncertainty in the US, who would actually trust China in any way shape or form as an alternative? It’s a tot

by atonse 1y ago

For all of its current very high profile issues of uncertainty in the US, who would actually trust China in any way shape or form as an alternative? It’s a totalitarian state who has been jailing its wealthiest businesspeople on a whim, causing many to flee, and it’s about to embark on an invasion of its peaceful neighbor. Which part of any of that screams “that currency will be a stable place to store my money?”

mertbio 1y ago
> who would actually trust China in any way shape or form as an alternative? Most of the Asian countries (except South Korea, Japan and Taiwan) and African countries. They’re already getting tons of investments and loans from China.
- atonse 1y ago
  Getting investments isn’t the same as adopting a currency as a reserve for its stability.
  - mertbio 1y ago
    The US dollar lost ~10% of its value this year. It is expected to lose another 10%. Which stability are we talking about? Also, here you can see the change in the foreign exchange reserves by currency: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/116488/global-official-foreign-exchange-reserves-by-currency-share https://en.macromicro.me/charts/116488/global-official-forei... US Dollars: 71% -> 58% Chinese Yuan: 0 -> 2%
    - spwa4 1y ago
      As opposed to China, who will probably invade pretty much every Asian country, and the only big unknown is the order. Western China is annexed. Nepal is Annexed. Hong Kong is annexed. Mongolia is 100% under Chinese control. Northwest Pakistan is 95% under Chinese control. Parts of Russia, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and other countries are under Chinese control to a greater or lesser extent, and all those countries have zero hopes of defending against China, and sure as hell can't count on anyone's support. Certainly not their neighbors, or the gulf states, and not the US. The South China sea (including Phillippine, Japanese, Taiwanese territory) is under Chinese control. And the countries' only hope for maintaining independence is the US. China is an empire. It cannot survive except through expansion so betting it will expand is like betting a person will breathe tomorrow. Accepting Chinese currency is like France buying Nazi bonds in 1939 (which France and most European countries did, btw). It seems like, in fact it is, the height of stupidity, but it's amazing what a little bit of promised money can make people do. This is figuratively, and potentially literally, paying for the bullets that will end up lodged in your skull, because the shooter promises 10% return. Which of course, these states will gladly do.
      - TFYS 1y ago
        The list of atrocities and political influence by the US is just as long if not longer. A country under the US sphere of influence is independent only for as long as its interests don't conflict with US interests. Before Trump the US might have continued pretending that its empire is somehow better than a Chinese one, but he threw that mask into the trash and set it on fire.
        spwa4 1y ago
        Sorry but it just isn't. INDIVIDUAL things the CCP does today dwarf the sum total of the atrocities the US committed over it's entire lifetime. The situation in Xinjang has more victims yearly than every event in the US since it's founding, and it's not even close to the only mass-atrocity the CCP is engaged in. Tibet. Mongolia. Chinese religious movements. Ah you're a communist idealist who "won't go into details" (and you'll probably refuse to discuss why almost every attempt at communism ended in a massacring dictatorship ...)
        TFYS 1y ago
        The US supported genocide in Gaza alone is much worse than anything done in Xinjiang. The genocide of native Americans, the bloody coups and corporate abuse in south America, the wars of the middle east with their millions of victims, the war crimes in Vietnam, the bombing of Japan and who knows how many more horrors that the US has been involved in. Do you honestly believe those things combined have less victims than Xinjiang?
        spwa4 1y ago
        Not that your other claims aren't equally ridiculous, but sorry, no. Pretty much everything, in China or elsewhere, is worse than Gaza. Gaza, claimed victims (hamas numbers, rounded up): 65'000 dead. (note that these numbers are ridiculous: for example, did you know, Israel did not kill a single hamas member? Zero. Not a single one) Gaza, claimed victims, IDF numbers: 13'000 dead (a little under half claimed to be hamas members. >80% are fighting age men) (and let's not forget the other difference: in the victims of Hamas, >85% are civilians. And that's assuming that everyone, on duty or on holiday, working even indirectly for the military counts as a soldier, including locksmiths and cleaning staff, otherwise it's easily over 90%) So let's say it's somewhere between those two numbers. But every conflict in the area is bigger than the biggest numbers in Gaza, easily. Syria, right next door, death toll: 656'000 dead. Sudan, not that far from Gaza, with hamas' parent organisation the perpetrators: 300'000 dead. Lebanon (note: conflict started by the PA, against Christians), death toll: at least 150'000 dead. IS/Daesh (note: conflict started by Palestinians), death toll: 306'000. Xinjang: 1.2 million imprisoned, 10% dead, per year, according to UN. Obviously that would make it more than double the claimed Gaza death toll PER YEAR (so that would make it 4x as big during the Gaza conflict, except it's been going on for far longer than the Gaza war). As for official figues: https://id.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202206/t20220622_10707637.htm https://id.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202206/t20220622_10...
    - slaw 1y ago
      Where did you get info about losing another 10%?
      - mertbio 1y ago
        "Morgan Stanley Research estimates the U.S. currency could lose another 10% by the end of 2026.": https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...
- arisAlexis 1y ago
  Like Philippines that are almost at war with China? Or India that have regular skirmishes with them? Who exactly in Asia? Is Shri Lanka important for world economy?
rdm_blackhole 1y ago
> For all of its current very high profile issues of uncertainty in the US, who would actually trust China in any way shape or form as an alternative? People would trust China for the same reason people still trust the US after it invaded 2 countries in the middle east for no reason whatsoever and decided to imprison 2 million of it's citizens at any given time. If tomorrow there are better prospects of making money in China, then people will go to China and use the yuan to store their wealth. It's that simple. Morals have nothing to do in this equation.
- vintermann 1y ago
  > People would trust China for the same reason I don't necessarily disagree, but can you explain why you think it is, that people keep trusting powerful states which keep giving plenty of reasons to not be trusted?
  - ccakes 1y ago
    Because money is the priority for those people. If they can make more money by operating in a different regime then they will, the moral or political stance of that regime isn’t really relevant
    - vintermann 1y ago
      I feel like you're maybe dismissing "moral or political stance" as something almost aesthetic here, some like this, some like that. But we're talking about what you can trust a government to do here. It matters even if you're indifferent to morality or politics. It's very much relevant to making money, too.
      - ccakes 1y ago
        Sort of, I was probably a bit flippant in the comment but there’s also a short game that can be had even in a potentially hostile environment.
  - rdm_blackhole 1y ago
rootsudo 1y ago
"It’s a totalitarian state who has been jailing its wealthiest businesspeople on a whim, causing many to flee, and it’s about to embark on an invasion of its peaceful neighbor." To be fair and very frank: the USA does the same things Peaceful neighbor: greenland or mexico (sure the cartel related violence but it isn't per se state.) Jack MA is the famous chinesse example, but it was close enough for bill gates, howard hughes and mark zuckerberg. Totalitarian state: It depends, as someone born in the USA, I've felt much freeer in China then USA. USA states and cities have been pushing things such as teens/kids can't be alone - yes it isn't federal. More recent, just look at the turning point usa assination - don't want to get to political since that's a black hole of political theater there but - that isn't common outside the USA. Credit system: USA's credit system is much more abusive then china's social credit system. While most of the issues are just present in the current administration, and should go away with the next administration - China has acted more responsibile and more consistent with it's policies while the USA is going all over the place lately. But for terms of currency, both are not great as of now - the rmb pegged to dollar will change soon, usd reserve currency is eroding everywhere. tl;dr buy gold I guess
- arisAlexis 1y ago
  How was Zuckerberg close to being in jail or abducted by the state please explain
  - rootsudo 1y ago
    Summoned to congress a few times most recently wasn't in line with Trump: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/28/trump-zuckerberg-election-book-00176639 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/28/trump-zuckerberg-el... "Former President Donald Trump writes in a new book set to be published next week that Mark Zuckerberg plotted against him during the 2020 election and said the Meta chief executive would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if he did it again."
scrubs 1y ago
I hear you on China loud and clear, however the balance of focus must be on us, the US, not shooting ourself in the face anymore. Debt, current account deficit, and interest payments have got to get in order. Our house needs to get in order by us for us.
- atonse 1y ago
  Totally agree. I just took issue with the idea that China’s currency would somehow be more stable.

by atonse 1y ago

mertbio 1y ago

> who would actually trust China in any way shape or form as an alternative? Most of the Asian countries (except South Korea, Japan and Taiwan) and African countries. They’re already getting tons of investments and loans from China.

atonse 1y ago
Getting investments isn’t the same as adopting a currency as a reserve for its stability.
- mertbio 1y ago
  The US dollar lost ~10% of its value this year. It is expected to lose another 10%. Which stability are we talking about? Also, here you can see the change in the foreign exchange reserves by currency: https://en.macromicro.me/charts/116488/global-official-foreign-exchange-reserves-by-currency-share https://en.macromicro.me/charts/116488/global-official-forei... US Dollars: 71% -> 58% Chinese Yuan: 0 -> 2%
  - spwa4 1y ago
    As opposed to China, who will probably invade pretty much every Asian country, and the only big unknown is the order. Western China is annexed. Nepal is Annexed. Hong Kong is annexed. Mongolia is 100% under Chinese control. Northwest Pakistan is 95% under Chinese control. Parts of Russia, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and other countries are under Chinese control to a greater or lesser extent, and all those countries have zero hopes of defending against China, and sure as hell can't count on anyone's support. Certainly not their neighbors, or the gulf states, and not the US. The South China sea (including Phillippine, Japanese, Taiwanese territory) is under Chinese control. And the countries' only hope for maintaining independence is the US. China is an empire. It cannot survive except through expansion so betting it will expand is like betting a person will breathe tomorrow. Accepting Chinese currency is like France buying Nazi bonds in 1939 (which France and most European countries did, btw). It seems like, in fact it is, the height of stupidity, but it's amazing what a little bit of promised money can make people do. This is figuratively, and potentially literally, paying for the bullets that will end up lodged in your skull, because the shooter promises 10% return. Which of course, these states will gladly do.
    - TFYS 1y ago
      The list of atrocities and political influence by the US is just as long if not longer. A country under the US sphere of influence is independent only for as long as its interests don't conflict with US interests. Before Trump the US might have continued pretending that its empire is somehow better than a Chinese one, but he threw that mask into the trash and set it on fire.
      - spwa4 1y ago
        Sorry but it just isn't. INDIVIDUAL things the CCP does today dwarf the sum total of the atrocities the US committed over it's entire lifetime. The situation in Xinjang has more victims yearly than every event in the US since it's founding, and it's not even close to the only mass-atrocity the CCP is engaged in. Tibet. Mongolia. Chinese religious movements. Ah you're a communist idealist who "won't go into details" (and you'll probably refuse to discuss why almost every attempt at communism ended in a massacring dictatorship ...)
        TFYS 1y ago
        The US supported genocide in Gaza alone is much worse than anything done in Xinjiang. The genocide of native Americans, the bloody coups and corporate abuse in south America, the wars of the middle east with their millions of victims, the war crimes in Vietnam, the bombing of Japan and who knows how many more horrors that the US has been involved in. Do you honestly believe those things combined have less victims than Xinjiang?
        spwa4 1y ago
        Not that your other claims aren't equally ridiculous, but sorry, no. Pretty much everything, in China or elsewhere, is worse than Gaza. Gaza, claimed victims (hamas numbers, rounded up): 65'000 dead. (note that these numbers are ridiculous: for example, did you know, Israel did not kill a single hamas member? Zero. Not a single one) Gaza, claimed victims, IDF numbers: 13'000 dead (a little under half claimed to be hamas members. >80% are fighting age men) (and let's not forget the other difference: in the victims of Hamas, >85% are civilians. And that's assuming that everyone, on duty or on holiday, working even indirectly for the military counts as a soldier, including locksmiths and cleaning staff, otherwise it's easily over 90%) So let's say it's somewhere between those two numbers. But every conflict in the area is bigger than the biggest numbers in Gaza, easily. Syria, right next door, death toll: 656'000 dead. Sudan, not that far from Gaza, with hamas' parent organisation the perpetrators: 300'000 dead. Lebanon (note: conflict started by the PA, against Christians), death toll: at least 150'000 dead. IS/Daesh (note: conflict started by Palestinians), death toll: 306'000. Xinjang: 1.2 million imprisoned, 10% dead, per year, according to UN. Obviously that would make it more than double the claimed Gaza death toll PER YEAR (so that would make it 4x as big during the Gaza conflict, except it's been going on for far longer than the Gaza war). As for official figues: https://id.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202206/t20220622_10707637.htm https://id.china-embassy.gov.cn/eng/sgdt/202206/t20220622_10...
  - slaw 1y ago
    Where did you get info about losing another 10%?
    - mertbio 1y ago
      "Morgan Stanley Research estimates the U.S. currency could lose another 10% by the end of 2026.": https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-declines https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...
arisAlexis 1y ago
Like Philippines that are almost at war with China? Or India that have regular skirmishes with them? Who exactly in Asia? Is Shri Lanka important for world economy?

rdm_blackhole 1y ago

> For all of its current very high profile issues of uncertainty in the US, who would actually trust China in any way shape or form as an alternative? People would trust China for the same reason people still trust the US after it invaded 2 countries in the middle east for no reason whatsoever and decided to imprison 2 million of it's citizens at any given time. If tomorrow there are better prospects of making money in China, then people will go to China and use the yuan to store their wealth. It's that simple. Morals have nothing to do in this equation.

vintermann 1y ago
> People would trust China for the same reason I don't necessarily disagree, but can you explain why you think it is, that people keep trusting powerful states which keep giving plenty of reasons to not be trusted?
- ccakes 1y ago
  Because money is the priority for those people. If they can make more money by operating in a different regime then they will, the moral or political stance of that regime isn’t really relevant
  - vintermann 1y ago
    I feel like you're maybe dismissing "moral or political stance" as something almost aesthetic here, some like this, some like that. But we're talking about what you can trust a government to do here. It matters even if you're indifferent to morality or politics. It's very much relevant to making money, too.
    - ccakes 1y ago
      Sort of, I was probably a bit flippant in the comment but there’s also a short game that can be had even in a potentially hostile environment.
- rdm_blackhole 1y ago

rootsudo 1y ago

"It’s a totalitarian state who has been jailing its wealthiest businesspeople on a whim, causing many to flee, and it’s about to embark on an invasion of its peaceful neighbor." To be fair and very frank: the USA does the same things Peaceful neighbor: greenland or mexico (sure the cartel related violence but it isn't per se state.) Jack MA is the famous chinesse example, but it was close enough for bill gates, howard hughes and mark zuckerberg. Totalitarian state: It depends, as someone born in the USA, I've felt much freeer in China then USA. USA states and cities have been pushing things such as teens/kids can't be alone - yes it isn't federal. More recent, just look at the turning point usa assination - don't want to get to political since that's a black hole of political theater there but - that isn't common outside the USA. Credit system: USA's credit system is much more abusive then china's social credit system. While most of the issues are just present in the current administration, and should go away with the next administration - China has acted more responsibile and more consistent with it's policies while the USA is going all over the place lately. But for terms of currency, both are not great as of now - the rmb pegged to dollar will change soon, usd reserve currency is eroding everywhere. tl;dr buy gold I guess

arisAlexis 1y ago
How was Zuckerberg close to being in jail or abducted by the state please explain
- rootsudo 1y ago
  Summoned to congress a few times most recently wasn't in line with Trump: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/28/trump-zuckerberg-election-book-00176639 https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/28/trump-zuckerberg-el... "Former President Donald Trump writes in a new book set to be published next week that Mark Zuckerberg plotted against him during the 2020 election and said the Meta chief executive would “spend the rest of his life in prison” if he did it again."

scrubs 1y ago

I hear you on China loud and clear, however the balance of focus must be on us, the US, not shooting ourself in the face anymore. Debt, current account deficit, and interest payments have got to get in order. Our house needs to get in order by us for us.

atonse 1y ago
Totally agree. I just took issue with the idea that China’s currency would somehow be more stable.