> It doesn't sound conspiratorial to me. The conspiratorial thinking is jumping to an assumption of a high probability of a "false flag". In reality, the base

> It doesn't sound conspiratorial to me. The conspiratorial thinking is jumping to an assumption of a high probability of a "false flag". In reality, the base rate of such attacks is low. > It seems a lot of shooters are right wing Many right-wingers would dispute the methodology behind these statistics, but that's beside the point. This information, however, is more or less rendered irrelevant by the circumstantial evidence that this was a political assassination, combined with the fact that the victim was right-wing. > Also "just as likely be" <> "equal probability". It quite literally means the same thing. If I flip a coin, the result is (ignoring all the standard gotchas) just as likely to be heads as tails. If I flip a coin, the probability of a heads result (ignoring all the standard gotchas) is equal to the probability of a tails result. The information content of the previous two sentences is the same.