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> Yet some technological innovations, though societally transformative, generate little in the way of new wealth; instead, they reinforce the status quo. Fiftee
by kristianc 1y ago
> Yet some technological innovations, though societally transformative, generate little in the way of new wealth; instead, they reinforce the status quo. Fifteen years before the microprocessor, another revolutionary idea, shipping containerization, arrived at a less propitious time, when technological advancement was a Red Queen’s race, and inventors and investors were left no better off for non-stop running.
This collapses an important distinction. The containerization pioneers weren’t made rich - that’s correct, Malcolm McLean, the shipping magnate who pioneered containerization didn’t die a billionaire. It did however generate enormous wealth through downstream effects by underpinning the rise of East Asian export economies, offshoring, and the retail models of Walmart, Amazon and the like. Most of us are much more likely to benefit from downstream structural shifts of AI rather than owning actual AI infrastructure.
This matters because building the models, training infrastructure, and data centres is capital-intensive, brutally competitive, and may yield thin margins in the long run. The real fortunes are likely to flow to those who can reconfigure industries around the new cost curve.
- dash2 1y agoThe article's point is exactly that you should invest downstream of AI.
- th0ma5 1y agoThe problem is different though, the containers were able to be made by others and offered dependable success, and anything downstream of model creators is at the whim of the model creator... And so far it seems not much that one model can do that another can't, so this all doesn't bode well for a reliable footing to determine what value, if at all, can be added by anyone for very long.
- dash2 1y agoSo if models, like containers, are able to be made by others (because they can all do the same thing), then they'll be commoditized and as the article suggests you should look for industries to which AI is a complement.
- th0ma5 1y agoIt sucks, while individual anecdotes of success are often unfalsifiable, measurements are also proving misleading, and I don't know an industry that generally benefits from unpredictable material.
- RataNova 1y agoAI's already showing hints of the same pattern. The infrastructure arms race is fascinating to watch, but it's not where most of the durable value will live