Also a major contributing factor to second (and third) order effects. Humans, groups, even societies all respond to changes - and if you cannot anticipate what

Also a major contributing factor to second (and third) order effects. Humans, groups, even societies all respond to changes - and if you cannot anticipate what those changes might be, then you are out of luck. (You will never get all them right. You will never even be able to list what their entirety will be. But you have to be able to predict the order of magnitude of a few of them.)