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Would point to the law of economics which says only renewables can get cheaper with investments? And which law of physics makes renewables work in places, which

by nec4b 1y ago

Would point to the law of economics which says only renewables can get cheaper with investments? And which law of physics makes renewables work in places, which have little wind and solar?

ZeroGravitas 1y ago
What percentage of the earth's surface have little wind and solar? What percentage of the human population live there? They have solar farms in Alaska and the Antarctic because it's cheaper than shipping in diesel for 6 months of the year. And the law of economics making modular renewables cheaper is Wright's Law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect
- nec4b 1y ago
  >>What percentage of the earth's surface have little wind and solar? What percentage of the human population live there? Large parts of USA, Canada, non Mediterranean Europe and northern half of Asia. A lot of people live there. >> And the law of economics making modular renewables cheaper is Wright's Law: I asked which economic law makes ONLY renewables getting cheaper with time. Why couldn't nuclear get cheaper in time?
  - ZeroGravitas 1y ago
    If you read the definition of wrights law it's fairly obvious. > Wright's law, also known as the experience curve effect, states that as the cumulative production of a product doubles, the labor time or cost per unit declines by a fixed percentage We're up to about 8 billion solar panels produced ever, maybe 2 billion or so a year now. That's a lot of doublings. There's been about 700 nuclear plants. Not a lot of doublings.
    - nec4b 1y ago
      >> We're up to about 8 billion solar panels produced ever, maybe 2 billion or so a year now. You need a lot of panels to match one nuclear power plant though, and they were/are heavily subsidized. >> There's been about 700 nuclear plants. Not a lot of doublings. Obviously, because there was/is a lot pressure against building them. I think China demonstrates, that they can be built rather quickly and cheaper and cheaper, if the obstacles are removed. It's not really a fair competition when something heavily subsidized and the other thing is almost banned.
epistasis 1y ago
It's typically called Wright's Law: https://quickonomics.com/terms/wrights-law/ https://quickonomics.com/terms/wrights-law/ But it's not a law that applies to all technologies, and it will likely end at some point, but there's at least 1-2 decades of cost decrease left. There is no law of physics that makes renewables work where there are poor renewable resources, except through transmission, which is usually engineered using several of Maxwell's laws.
- nec4b 1y ago
  I asked which economic law makes ONLY renewables getting cheaper with time. Why couldn't nuclear also get cheaper? Maxwell laws can't help with geopolitics though.
  - epistasis 1y ago
    Aha, that meaning wasn't clear to me in your original sentence. The best research I have seen on why different technologies get their learning rates is from the interviewees of this podcast: https://www.volts.wtf/p/which-technologies-get-cheaper-over https://www.volts.wtf/p/which-technologies-get-cheaper-over Some people think that SMRs are a way for nuclear to get on a learning curve, but there's just as many skeptical people as enthusiastic people about that, in my experience. Natural energy resources are a huge source of geopolitical turmoil since the start of the industrial age. Renewables have the potential to significantly lessen these conflicts compared to what's happened with fossil fuels.
    - nec4b 1y ago
      Thanks for the podcast. >>Renewables have the potential to significantly lessen these conflicts compared to what's happened with fossil fuels. I'm not too optimistic about it. As usual, on one side you have countries with big renewable sources, the producers and on the other side, you have countries with strong industry, which requires a lot energy, the consumers.
      - epistasis 1y ago

by nec4b 1y ago

Would point to the law of economics which says only renewables can get cheaper with investments? And which law of physics makes renewables work in places, which have little wind and solar?

ZeroGravitas 1y ago

What percentage of the earth's surface have little wind and solar? What percentage of the human population live there? They have solar farms in Alaska and the Antarctic because it's cheaper than shipping in diesel for 6 months of the year. And the law of economics making modular renewables cheaper is Wright's Law: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Experience_curve_effect

nec4b 1y ago
>>What percentage of the earth's surface have little wind and solar? What percentage of the human population live there? Large parts of USA, Canada, non Mediterranean Europe and northern half of Asia. A lot of people live there. >> And the law of economics making modular renewables cheaper is Wright's Law: I asked which economic law makes ONLY renewables getting cheaper with time. Why couldn't nuclear get cheaper in time?
- ZeroGravitas 1y ago
  If you read the definition of wrights law it's fairly obvious. > Wright's law, also known as the experience curve effect, states that as the cumulative production of a product doubles, the labor time or cost per unit declines by a fixed percentage We're up to about 8 billion solar panels produced ever, maybe 2 billion or so a year now. That's a lot of doublings. There's been about 700 nuclear plants. Not a lot of doublings.
  - nec4b 1y ago
    >> We're up to about 8 billion solar panels produced ever, maybe 2 billion or so a year now. You need a lot of panels to match one nuclear power plant though, and they were/are heavily subsidized. >> There's been about 700 nuclear plants. Not a lot of doublings. Obviously, because there was/is a lot pressure against building them. I think China demonstrates, that they can be built rather quickly and cheaper and cheaper, if the obstacles are removed. It's not really a fair competition when something heavily subsidized and the other thing is almost banned.

epistasis 1y ago

It's typically called Wright's Law: https://quickonomics.com/terms/wrights-law/ https://quickonomics.com/terms/wrights-law/ But it's not a law that applies to all technologies, and it will likely end at some point, but there's at least 1-2 decades of cost decrease left. There is no law of physics that makes renewables work where there are poor renewable resources, except through transmission, which is usually engineered using several of Maxwell's laws.

nec4b 1y ago
I asked which economic law makes ONLY renewables getting cheaper with time. Why couldn't nuclear also get cheaper? Maxwell laws can't help with geopolitics though.
- epistasis 1y ago
  Aha, that meaning wasn't clear to me in your original sentence. The best research I have seen on why different technologies get their learning rates is from the interviewees of this podcast: https://www.volts.wtf/p/which-technologies-get-cheaper-over https://www.volts.wtf/p/which-technologies-get-cheaper-over Some people think that SMRs are a way for nuclear to get on a learning curve, but there's just as many skeptical people as enthusiastic people about that, in my experience. Natural energy resources are a huge source of geopolitical turmoil since the start of the industrial age. Renewables have the potential to significantly lessen these conflicts compared to what's happened with fossil fuels.
  - nec4b 1y ago
    Thanks for the podcast. >>Renewables have the potential to significantly lessen these conflicts compared to what's happened with fossil fuels. I'm not too optimistic about it. As usual, on one side you have countries with big renewable sources, the producers and on the other side, you have countries with strong industry, which requires a lot energy, the consumers.
    - epistasis 1y ago